People's Bank Of China

Frontrunning: August 11

  • China Rattles Markets With Yuan Devaluation (BBG)
  • China Move Sparks Wave of Yuan Selling (WSJ)
  • China's devaluation raises currency war fear as Greece strikes deal (Reuters)
  • Protests return to Ferguson streets, state of emergency declared (Reuters)
  • Heavily armed 'Oath Keepers' inject new unease to riot-hit Ferguson (Reuters)
  • Greece Secures Bailout Deal After All-Night Talks in Athens (BBG)
  • U.S. Identifies Insider Trading Ring With Ukraine Hackers (BBG)

China "Loses Battle Over Yuan", And Now The Global Currency War Begins

Almost exactly seven months ago, on January 15, the Swiss National Bank shocked the world when it admitted defeat in a long-standing war to keep the Swiss Franc artificially weak, and after a desperate 3 year-long gamble, which included loading up the SNB's balance sheet with enough EUR-denominated garbage to almost equal the Swiss GDP, it finally gave up and on one cold, shocking January morning the EURCHF imploded, crushing countless carry-trade surfers. Fast forward to the morning of August 11 when in a virtually identical stunner, the PBOC itself admitted defeat in the currency battle, only unlike the SNB, the Chinese central bank had struggled to keep the Yuan propped up, at the cost of nearly $1 billion in daily foreign reserve outflows, which as this website noted first months ago, also included the dumping of a record amount of US government treasurys. 

As China Admits It Lied About Its Local Debt Levels, Local Billionaires Are Quietly Liquidating Their Assets

Overnight something unexpected happened: Sheng Songcheng, the director of the statistics division of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), was quoted by the National Business Daily on Saturday whereby he essentially admitted China had been lying about not only its local debt exposure but the level of NPLs across the economy.  The punchline: Sheng warned about the risks of local government debt, saying that 2 trillion yuan in bond swaps may not be able to fully cover maturing debt, according to the report. What he really said, as paraphrased by Bloomberg, is that "local govt's tended to not report all their debts when audited in June 2013, thus the 2 trillion yuan debt swap plan arranged this year may not cover all debts due, Sheng cited as saying."

Oops.

Frontrunning: July 21

  • Gold claws back ground, European assets lose Greek tarnish (Reuters)
  • Greece's Euro Exit Back on the Agenda Next Year, Economists Say (BBG)
  • Greece submits bill needed to start rescue talks (Reuters)
  • Wall Street Lenders Growing Impatient With U.S. Shale Revolution (BBG)
  • Overtime Rules Send Bosses Scrambling (WSJ)
  • As Markets Swing, Beijing Steadies Yuan (WSJ)
  • Tennessee rampage suspect went to Qatar in 2014 (Reuters)
  • Kathryn Dominguez to Be Nominated for Fed Governor (WSJ)

Frontrunning: June 5

  • Europe shares set for worst week of 2015 (Reuters)
  • Jobs Report Not Likely to Trigger June Rate Hike (Hilsenrath)
  • U.S. jobs market seen firming despite lackluster growth (Reuters)
  • Gross Says Bond Rout Scary as Hell Even Without Bear Market (BBG)
  • Apple Is the New Pimco, and Tim Cook Is the New King of Bonds (BBG), which ZH said in 2013
  • In 'year of Apple Pay', many top retailers remain skeptical (Reuters)
  • OPEC Nations Signal Few Prospects for Oil-Production Change (BBG)
  • China regulator says amending rules on margin trading, short selling  (Reuters)

Frontrunning: May 19

  • China’s Record Capital Outflows Spark Financial Stability Fears (FT)
  • U.K. Inflation Falls Below Zero for First Time Since 1960 (BBG)
  • Islamic State Solidifies Foothold in Libya to Expand Reach (WSJ)
  • Judge sentences 11 Afghan police over lynching of woman in Kabul (Reuters)
  • The $18 Trillion Global Economic Boost If Everything Went Right (BBG)
  • Eurozone Prices Confirmed Flat Year-on-Year in April, Core Inflation Inches Higher (Reuters)
  • Greek Finances to Stagger On Longer Than You Think (BBG)
  • Athens sees EU deal soon, Greeks' approval of government stance dwindles (Reuters)

What The Sellside Thought Of China's Leaked Rate Cut

As the SHCOMP soars, the sellside reacts to China's latest round of easing and the message is clear: more policy rate cuts are in the cards as real lending rates remain elevated and deflation risk remains high. Meanwhile, the PBoC's statement was making the rounds on WeChat hours before its official release suggesting Janet Yellen isn't the only central banker that enjoys leaking information.

China Cuts Rates (Again) In Desperate Bid To Buoy Stocks, Rescue Economy

On the heels of last week's equity rout, China cuts interest rates for the third time since November. The move comes on the heels of last month's RRR cut and follows trade data that missed expectations (again) and a PPI print that betrayed persistent deflation risks. Perhaps more importantly, Chinese stocks fell last week amid still more rumors that tighter margin requirements are on the way. 

The End Of The "Reflation" Trade? China To Focus On Fiscal Stimulus, Avoid Monetary Policy

As a result of constant jawboning that the PBOC may not only cut rates even more but proceed to launch QE (which it will ultimately, just not for a while), both the Shanghai Composite has been trading at multi-year highs and oil has found a bid strong enough that in the past two months it has surged by some 50% on hopes that Chinese demand will finally come back once the local economy is so weak it leaves the PBOC no other choice. However, two things suggest that the great "reflation" trade is ending.

"China Has A Massive Debt Problem", And Why It Is About Get Much Massiver

"China has a $28 trillion problem. That’s the country’s total government, corporate and household debt load as of mid-2014... equal to 282 percent of the country’s total annual economic output," Bloomberg notes, adding that efforts to deleverage this massive debt burden aren't compatible with the measures Beijing needs to take to boost economic growth. But if you thought the debt problem was bad now, it's going to get worse because as Reuters notes, China is about to activate the ABS machine.