People's Bank Of China

A money-laundering butterfly flaps its wings in China... and the US housing market crashes?

• Xi Says China Conflict With U.S. Would Be Disaster (BBG)
• Short selling drops to lowest level since Lehman (FT)
• Scoping the new subprime as watchdogs cry 'bubble' (Reuters)
• Carlos Slim to break up América Móvil empire (FT)
• Jury Acquits Rengan Rajaratnam in Insider-Trading Case (WSJ)
• Hamas rockets land deep in Israel as it bombards Gaza Strip (Reuters)
• Hong Kong Buyers Queue for New Homes After Prices Plunge (BBG)
• Rebel Stronghold in Ukraine Braces for Its Showdown (WSJ)
• Tiny Houses Big With U.S. Owners Seeking Economic Freedom (BBG)
• Chinese Cash-Bearing Buyers Drive U.S. Foreign Sales Jump (BBG)

While numerous massively indebted administrations around the world hope to divert the attention of what's left of their struggling middle class away from its daily impoverished existence and distract it with flashing lights and glitzy animations showing another all time market high on a daily basis, a significantly more important shift taking place behind the scenes is appreciated by very few: the ongoing de-dollarization of the world. For the latest example of how increasingly more countries are setting the stage for the final currency war, we go again to Russia where VOR's  Valentin Mândr??escu explains that slowly but surely the BRICS - that proud Goldman acronym which was conceived to perpetuate the great American way of life by releasing trillions in US-denominated debt in heretofore untapped markets - are morphing into an anti-dollar alliance.

• Levin Hearing Ups Volume in High-Frequency Call to Action (BBG)
• Ukrainian President Fires Central Bank Chief (BBG)
• Argentina Plans Debt Swap (WSJ)
• Fed Decision Day Guide From Dot Plots To Exit Strategy (BBG)
• World Bank Economist: China May Face US-Style Financial Crisis (WSJ)
• Premier Li says no hard landing for China, expects medium to high growth (Reuters)
• Putin Talks Peace With Ukraine Leader After Gas Pipe Fire (BBG)
• Poll Shows Erosion in President's Support (WSJ)
• U.S. mortgage applications plunge in latest week (Reuters)
• Ex-Goldman director goes to prison, still owes $13.9 million fine (Reuters)

• Iraqi Drama Catches U.S. Off Guard (WSJ)
• Al-Qaeda Offshoot on NATO Border Threatens Turkish Rally (BBG)
• It's just the snow, people: U.S. Economic Recovery Looks Distant as Growth Lingers (NYT)
• Freed Taliban leaders may remain in Qatar beyond one-year travel ban (Reuters)
• BNP Paribas Executive Chodron de Courcel to Quit Post (WSJ)
• Greenmail is back (WSJ)
• Facebook Places Multiple Bets to Win Messenger Wars (BBG)
• ECB easing to benefit Ukraine, Russia corporate bonds (Reuters)
• Rome Shows the World How Not to Run Bike-Sharing Program (BBG)

• Yellen Concerned by Housing Slowdown She Has Scant Power to Cure (BBG)
• Because snow in Q1? Citigroup’s CFO Says Trading Revenue Could Slide 25% (BBG)
• Banks Raise Caution Flag on Trading (WSJ)
• The answer is yes: Hilsenrath asks if BOJ’s Kuroda Awakening to His Limits? (WSJ)
• Google Develops Prototype Cars for Fully Autonomous Driving (WSJ)
• Amazon Expects Lengthy Hachette Dispute (WSJ)
• Tencent $1 Billion Game Shows Global Hunt for Mobile Hits (BBG)

A simple way of grasping the precarious situation China has found itself in is with this useful diagram which summarizes the negative loop that China's economy (which essentially means housing market which as SocGen recently explained is indirectly responsible for 80% of local GDP) could fall into should the government not promptly move to address the emerging dangerous situation, i.e., resume aggressive easing.

• Hillary and Me: The 2008 campaign was a nightmare. Will 2016 be as bad?  (Politico)
• What Timothy Geithner Really Thinks (NYT)
• Rebels declare victory in east Ukraine self-rule vote (Reuters)
• Race for AIG's Top Job Has Two Favorites (WSJ)
• America on the Move Becomes Stay-at-Home Nation for Millennials (BBG)
• Old, Fired at IBM: Trendsetter Offers Workers Arbitration (BBG)
• Bad luck Jonathan: Pressure Mounts on Nigerian President (WSJ)
• Iran leader slams West's 'stupid' missile stance before talks (Reuters)
• Conchita Wurst of Austria Wins Eurovision Song Contest (WSJ)
• Greek Finance Ministry expects Q1 GDP contraction of less than 1.5 pct (Kathimerini)

Russia has increased its gold holdings by 7.247 tonnes to 1,042 tonnes in February. Turkey and Kazakhstan also raised their bullion reserves, data from the International Monetary Fund showed today. Turkey's gold holdings rose 9.292 tonnes to 497.869 tonnes, the data showed. Many analysts are ignoring the important context of today's new geopolitical backdrop. Russia alone has some $400 billion in foreign exchange reserves - mostly in U.S. dollars. If they were to diversify just 5%, worth some $20 billion, of those reserves into gold - it would be equal to nearly 500 tonnes of gold or nearly 25% of global annual production.  It will be interesting to see what Russian demand is in March and indeed in the coming months. Sanctions could lead to materially higher demand from the Russian central bank, Bank Rossii.

• Lost Jet’s Path Seen as Altered via Computer (NYT)
• Fed Links Low Rates to “Persistent Headwinds” in Economy (Hilsenrath)
• Top German Court Clears Euro-Zone Bailout Fund (WSJ)
• U.S., EU set sanctions as Putin recognizes Crimea "sovereignty" (Reuters)
• Indian wealth effect: Sensex, Nifty hit life highs as domestic-focused firms rally (Reuters)
• China bond default has positive effect on local government groups (FT) - unless it's negative
• Russia tensions  risk higher gas prices (FT)
• China Home-Price Growth Slows in Big Cities on Tight Credit (BBG)
• ECB's Weidmann says German surpluses "here to stay" (Reuters)
• Microsoft Office for iPad (AAPL) to be introduced this month (The Verge)

In the aftermath in the recent surge in China's renminbi volatility which saw it plunge at the fastest pace in years, many, us included, suggested that the immediate next step in China's "fight with speculators" (not to mention the second biggest trade deficit in history), was for the PBOC to promptly widen the Yuan trading band, something it hasn't done since April 2012, with the stated objective of further liberalizing its monetary system and bringing the currency that much closer to being freely traded and market-set. Overnight it did just that, when it announced it would widen the Yuan's trading band against the dollar from 1% to 2%.

Yuan volatility is part of a major rebalancing of global trade. The next phase of EM turmoil will involve banking crises in several countries including China. 

• Ukraine leader denounces coup bid, West weighs sanctions (Reuters)
• Time to buy Imodium calls: Kuroda Easing Doomed as Yen Seen Missing 120 Level (BBG)
• Teens Disappear From U.S. Workforce (BBG)
• Fed Sets Rules for Foreign Banks (WSJ)
• Quant Funds Feel Investor Bite After Underperforming (BBG)
• China Probes Qualcomm, InterDigital Over Monopoly Concerns (WSJ)
• Capital One says it can show up at cardholders' homes, workplaces  (LATimes)
• SEC Gains Power to Take Profit Made From Insider Trading (BBG)

• Carl Icahn wins again: Actavis to Buy Forest Labs for $25 Billion (WSJ)
• ECB governing council member attacks German court ruling on OMT (FT)
• China Tackles $1 Trillion Data Gap as Xi Changes Metrics (BBG)
• FX Traders Facing Extinction as Computers Replace Humans (BBG)
• BOJ Boost to Loan Programs Signals Room for More Easing (BBG) - actually no it doesn't as it was "factored in"
• Four killed in Thai clashes; PM to face charges over rice scheme (Reuters)
• Goodbye unsterilized SMP: Bundesbank Backs Measure to Boost Funds in Banking System  (WSJ)
• Iranian Hacking to Test NSA Nominee Michael Rogers (WSJ)
• Ukraine Clashes Leave Dozens Wounded as Putin Resumes Bailout (BBG)

• Yellen's first test (Reuters)
• Let weak banks die, says eurozone super-regulator (FT)
• Yellen, Carney Face Explaining Policy as Benchmarks Near (BBG)
• Commerzbank Said Seeking Debt Buyers in $6.8 Billion Spain Exit (BBG)
• Junk Yield Premiums Soar on China’s Looming First Default (BBG)
• Millions Trapped in Health-Law Coverage Gap (WSJ)
• Mandel Tops Best-Earning Hedge Funds for Clients in 2013 (BBG)
• Swiss Brace for Sour EU Relations After Immigration Vote (BBG)
• Detroit Bankruptcy Talks to Resume (WSJ)