Pershing Square

Sometimes, when one desperately chases alpha at any cost, all one needs to see is a somewhat credible asset manager, in this case Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, invest a massive amount of cash in a given company, to decide to invest alongside. In this case the company is JCPenney, and the amount in question invested by Ackman being $1.3 billion (at last check his third biggest positions after GGP and CP). Usually this strategy, elsewhere known as herding, 13F chasing, or alphacloning, works, until it doesn't. In the case of JCPenney it just didn't, after the company just blew up in real time dropping a tape bomb, missing on the top and the bottom, cutting the forecast, and for good measure also eliminating the dividend. End result: Ackman just lost nearly $200 million after the stock imploded by nearly 15% after hours, and all those who blindly piggybacked along without doing their homework (such as Whtiney Tilson whose 4th largest cash position is JCP), went for the ride.

Pop quiz: What is the common theme among the following "best of breed" 2 and 20 (at least) hedge funds, whose YTD performance is presented below?

• More HFT Posturing: SEC Probes Rapid Trading (WSJ)
• Fed’s Bullard Says Monetary Policy May Be at Turning Point (Bloomberg)
• Hilsenrath: Fed Hosts Global Gathering on Easy Money (WSJ)
• Dublin ‘hopeful’ ECB will approve bond deal (FT)
• EU Proposes a Beefed-Up Permanent Bailout Fund (WSJ)
• Portugal Town Halls Face Default Amid $12 Billion Debt (Bloomberg)
• Hidden Fund Fees Means U.K. Investors Pay Double US Rates (Bloomberg)
• Europe Weighs Trade Probes Amid Beijing Threats (WSJ)
• Bank of Japan Stimulus Row Fueled by Kono’s Nomination (Bloomberg)

Since our subscription to the HSBC HF tracker appears to have expired, we now rely on Bloomberg Brief's for hedge fund performance update. And what an ugly update it is, especially for members of the old groupthink guard, led by Pershing Square's Bill Ackman. To wit: "William Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management LP dropped by 6.7 percent in the first half of August to drop year-to-date returns to -10.57 percent, according to HSBC Private Bank data." And while we know of the scorched earth currently happening on the 50th floor of 1251 Avenue of the Americas, another big time hedge fund, Owl Creek, is getting pummeled behind the scenes: "Owl Creek Asset Management LP’s $4.8 billion offshore fund was down 9.3 percent in the first 12 days of August, according to HSBC Private Bank data. The fund, managed by Jeffrey Altman, is down 9.16 percent year-to-date through Aug. 12."

Ackman from Pershing Square fame has released a very bullish CRE presentation. I stand diametrically opposed to both the conclusions and the analysis in general, thus have created my own comprehensive CRE outlook for 2010 and beyond. Here you have it: A bulls vs bears debate in the CRE space - both of which are quite well documented and allow for rich reading.