Personal Consumption

The Illusion Of Declining Debt To Income Ratios

Despite the mainstream media’s belief that surging asset prices, driven by the Federal Reserve’s monetary interventions, has provided a boost to the overall economy, it has really been anything but.. the story remains the same – “if you are wealthy – life is good.”

Republicans Crack - UMich Confidence Slumps To Lowest Since Trump Elected

Republican finally cracked. After months of extremely partisan divergence in the UMich confidence data, the loss in confidence for self-identified Republicans fell notably more than for Democrats (who were already significantly lower). Both current and future expectations tumbled to their lowest since Nov 2016.

UMich Confidence Shows Partisan Divide Widest Ever But All Agree It's Time To Sell Your House

UMich confidence is stable at its post-Trump plateau for now, but the partisan divide between Republicans (robust economic growth ahead) and Democrats (recession looms) has never been wider. However, one thing they all agree on is that for the first time since the peak of the housing market in 2006, home-buyers are negative on home prices with home-sellers most dominant since 2005.

How Non-profit Organizations Saved Q1 GDP

While healthcare was revised sharply lower in the second revision, this was more than offset by a $11.9 bilion annualized increase in expenditures of "nonprofit institutions serving households."

Global Rally Fizzles After "OPEC Shock" In "Slow Risk-Off Session"

S&P futures were fractionally lower from yesterday's record high as European stocks declined and Asian stocks were mixed, pressured by yesterday's 5% plunge in crude after OPEC unexpectedly "failed to surprise" markets, and announced the bare minimum supply cut extension that was expected by oil traders, who in turn puked long positions.

Key Events In The Coming Week: FOMC Minutes, GDP, BOC, OPEC And More

The key economic releases this week are the durable goods report and Q1 GDP revision on Friday. The minutes of the May FOMC statement will be released on Wednesday at 2PM. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week

UMich Confidence Ticks Up As Inflation Expectations Slump To Record Lows

Preliminary May data from University of Michigan shows a small uptick in overall consumer sentiment (from 97.0 to 97.7), back near cycle highs with 'expectations' rising modestly. However, Americans see medium-term expectations for inflation as the weakest on record... and Buying plans, however, were mixed: household durables rose to a decade peak, while vehicle buying conditions slipped to a three year low.

The Coming Debt Reckoning

The financial system circa 2017, and the economy that supports it, has been stretched to the breaking point.  Shortsighted fiscal and monetary policies have propagated it.  The result is a failing financial order that has become near intolerable for all but the gravy supping political class and their cronies.

'Fragile' US Economy Hammered In Q1 By Election-Spending Hangover

Growth in U.S. personal consumption expenditures in the first quarter of 2017 was slowest since 2009, according to data released Friday by the Commerce Department. A big reason for that was the second-largest contraction in spending by non-profits (i.e. election-related lobbying/spending) in 57 years of data.

Global Stocks Pause Ahead Of GDP Report; Nasdaq Hits Fresh Record High

Despite yesterday's whopping beats by Amazon and Google which sent the Nasdaq to new record highs after hours, this morning futures S&P futures are little changed ahead of the closely watched Q1 GDP report, European stocks and Asian equities are slightly lower, oil is higher after Russia said it had reached the 300kbpd oil cut per the OPEC pact, and the dollar was modestly in the red.