Personal Consumption

Weekend Reading: Oil & Retail Send A Warning

There are two important areas of the market that have historically been good leading indicators of the strength, or weakness, of the markets and the economy... Oil and retail.

'Vice' Index Shows U.S. Slowdown Ahead

"...add it all up and conditions are set for slower spending growth... It’s already showing up in the luxury spending we call vices... like in Gambling & Prostitution"

Final Q1 GDP Revised To 1.4% Due To Spike In Consumer Spending; Corporate Profits Tumble

Moments ago the BEA released its third estimate of GDP, according to which Q1 GDP rose by 1.4% in the quarter, above the second estimate of 1.2%, and double the initial estimate of 0.7%. And while economy grew more than expected, a red flag emerged in corporate profits, which decreased 2.3% in the first quarter of 2017 after increasing 0.5% in Q4.

Euro Surges, Yields And Stocks Rise As Central Banks Deliver Coordinated Message

The euro soared to the highest level in over a year while bond yields and global shares also climbed, as an ongoing barrage of coordinated hawkish comments from central banks signaled the era of easy money might be coming to an end for more than just the United States. S&P futures were fractionally in the green following the best day for US equities in two months.

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: Yellen, Inflation, Durables And GDP

The main releases this week are the durable goods report on Monday, the Q1 GDP revision on Thursday, and the personal income and spending report on Friday. There are also many speaking engagements by Fed officials including a speech by Fed Chair Yellen on Tuesday.

The Illusion Of Declining Debt To Income Ratios

Despite the mainstream media’s belief that surging asset prices, driven by the Federal Reserve’s monetary interventions, has provided a boost to the overall economy, it has really been anything but.. the story remains the same – “if you are wealthy – life is good.”

Republicans Crack - UMich Confidence Slumps To Lowest Since Trump Elected

Republican finally cracked. After months of extremely partisan divergence in the UMich confidence data, the loss in confidence for self-identified Republicans fell notably more than for Democrats (who were already significantly lower). Both current and future expectations tumbled to their lowest since Nov 2016.

UMich Confidence Shows Partisan Divide Widest Ever But All Agree It's Time To Sell Your House

UMich confidence is stable at its post-Trump plateau for now, but the partisan divide between Republicans (robust economic growth ahead) and Democrats (recession looms) has never been wider. However, one thing they all agree on is that for the first time since the peak of the housing market in 2006, home-buyers are negative on home prices with home-sellers most dominant since 2005.

How Non-profit Organizations Saved Q1 GDP

While healthcare was revised sharply lower in the second revision, this was more than offset by a $11.9 bilion annualized increase in expenditures of "nonprofit institutions serving households."