Personal Consumption

Key Events In The Coming Week

Looking at the week ahead, the US election enters the home stretch and politics will likely dominate the headlines, especially the closer races in Congress. Despite data being overshadowed by politics, there are some key US releases coming up, with the first estimate of Q3 GDP, the employment cost index and durable goods the main focus.

US Futures, Global Stocks Mixed After Lackluster Chinese Economic Data; Oil Rises Over $51

US futures were little changed, with European shares lower, and Asian stocks higher as caution returned after last night's Chinese economic data did little to clear up how the world's second largest economy is performing, and provided few positives for investors ahead of the third and final U.S. presidential debate; imminent announcements from both the ECB and the Fed also will keep traders on their toes today.

Key Events In The Coming Extremely Busy Week

The week ahead is striking in the sheer number of central bank speakers, but with the Fed on hold until December and the BoJ’s new framework now revealed, focus turns squarely from central banks to US politics. The first US presidential debate at the start of the week will be a key focus.

Q2 GDP Revised Lower To 1.1%, As Expected, Even As Personal Consumption Rises

In what has been called the economic equivalent of hitting 00 on roulette, moments ago the BEA announced that Q2 GDP eased off from the original estimate of 1.2%, declining fractionally to 1.09%, and right on top of consensus etimates, which also expected a 1.1% print in the second quarter. This means that following the disappointing Q1 print of 0.83%, the first half economic growth is now officially just below 1%, or 0.096% to be precise.

"This Ain't Rocket Science Folks" - Fundamentals Matter (And Will Always Matter)

We can pretend fundamentals don’t matter and sure in the day to day profit taking of Citadel and the like they really don’t matter. But, while the PhDs may talk big about this new world economy where a move to universal welfare means jobs and wages don’t matter - well that is nonsense. Jobs and wages matter and they will always matter.

Jackson Hole Looms: The Main Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week are new home sales on Tuesday and durable goods on Thursday. However, the main event in what is one of the slowest summer weeks, will be the Jackson Hole symposium starting this Friday, where focus will be on Yellen's speech who will be scrutinized to see if she can bring the Fed's message back on track after several conflicting statements by Fed speakers in recent weeks.