Personal Income

Bubble-nomics

Since 1970, every time asset values have risen above 520% of households disposable income (the dashed line in the chart) then the US has been in a bubble and a subsequent crash has followed.

"The Fed Is Afraid..."

"...the Fed knows the economy is extremely fragile. This latest admission from Yellen serves to - yet again - manage expectations and tell us to not expect much of anything from the Fed in terms of normalization..."

"I Thought I Was Middle-Class?"

"When I saw Gary Cohn, bloviating about Trump’s tax plan and how it was going to do wonders for the middle class, I knew I was probably going to get screwed again. And after perusing the outline of their plan, it is certain I will be getting it up the ass once again from my beloved government."

Real Personal Spending Drops Most Since Jan 2016

Growth in income and spending has been trending slower for the last six months and August showed continued weakness in spending (slowest annual growth since Aug 2016) but a slight uptick in incomes. The savings rate was unchanged at 3.6% - the lowest since December - but perhaps most noteworthy is the 0.1% MoM drop in real personal spending, the weakest since Jan 2016.

The “Trump Tax Plan” - Details & Analysis

Trump's "historic" tax bill, as proposed today, will likely look very different by the time it is actually voted on. However, as is always the case, the “devil is in the details." Here are the notable highlights...

Here Is The Trump Tax Plan

In a political era where every little thing is leaked to the media, we no longer have to wait for presidential speeches to learn the details of key pieces of legislation.  As such, here is a 9-page summary of Trump's tax plan courtesy of the latest leaks.

Global Stocks Mixed After "Nightmare Victory" For Merkel; Chinese Property Developers Crash

European stocks rose as the euro tumbled following Germany’s election result which was dubbed a "Nightmare Victory" for Merkel and could lead to complicated coalition talks. U.S. equity-index futures point to a lower open, while Asian equities slide after a plunge in Chinese property developer names as well as tech stocks following more iPhone delivery concerns. S&P500 futures are steady. 

FX Week Ahead: Market In Need Of Brain-Changer, Not Game-Changer

After the FOMC meeting last week, it was (yet) again apparent that the Fed are still keen to maintain a normalisation path designed to not only get rates back to neutral levels, but also build up the policy tool kit again as well as staving off excessive leverage which has boosted stock markets to record highs. 

Paul Craig Roberts Exhorts "Whatever Happened To America?"

"When I was born, America was a nation. Today it is a diversity country in which various segments divided by race, gender, and sexual preference, preach hate toward other segments... America, the melting pot that produced a nation was destroyed by Identity Politics. Identity Politics divides a population into hate groups. This group hates that one and so on. In the US the most hated group is a southern white heterosexual male."