Personal Income

Top Ex-White House Economist Admits 94% Of All New Jobs Under Obama Were Part-Time

We find that 94% of net job growth in the past decade was in the alternative work category,” said Obama's former top White House economist Alan Krueger. In other words, nearly all of the 10 million jobs created between 2005 and 2015 were not traditional nine-to-five employment, but low-paying temp, on-call, contract workers, independent contractors or freelancers.

Disposable Income Per Capita Grows At Weakest Rate Since 2014

For the 3rd month in a row, annual US spending growth has outpaced annual income growth (+4.2% spending vs +3.5% income). However, both spending and income growth MoM disappointed (with incomes unchanged MoM - the weakest since Feb 2016). Combine these two and the savings rate in November plunged to its lowest since March 2015.

Global Stocks Decline As Trading Volumes Collapse Ahead Of Monte Paschi Nationalization

European, Asian stocks and S&P futures all declined amid collapsing volumes, after the Wednesday drop in the S&P500, and after oil prices held losses amid an unexpected increase in supplies, as traders close out trades ahead of the holidays. European stocks edged lower, led by miners, and U.S. stock futures stagnated after the Dow Jones Industrial Average failed to make progress toward 20,000 Wednesday.

Key Events In The Coming Pre-Holiday Week

The key economic releases this week are durable goods and GDP on Thursday. Chair Yellen’s speech on the labor market on Monday afternoon is also likely to garner considerable attention.

Are Debt-Laden American Consumers About To Get Crushed By Higher Interest Rates?

While real median incomes in the U.S. have been stagnant for almost a decade, real household personal consumption has continued its steady rise as American's have simply replaced income losses with new debt.  But, with household leverage near all-time highs and interest rates on the rise, we suspect this could all end very badly for the U.S. consumer.

What Has Gone Wrong With Oil Prices, Debt, & GDP Growth?

It would be nice if we could figure out a way to make our economy last forever, but it is doubtful that we can. Ultimately, the battle between diminishing returns and increased complexity seems likely to be settled in a way that causes the economy to collapse.

Atlanta Fed Slashes Q4 GDP Estimate From 3.6% To 2.4%

When we looked at the latest disappointing spending data this morning, we warned that GDP would likely be weakned, however we had no idea by just how much. The answer was revealed moments ago courtesy of the Atlanta Fed, which updated its GDPNow model and said that its forecast for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.4 percent on November 30, down from 3.6 percent on November 23.

US Savings Rate Surged Pre-Election As Spending Slowed, Weakens Q3 GDP

After an upwardly revised September surge, US personal spending growth slowed to just 0.3% in October and with incomes rising more than expected (+0.6% vs +0.4% exp), it appears Americans were careful heading into the election as the savings rate surged from 5.7% to 6.0%. However, the weaker than expected growth in spending will likely knock Q3 GDP revisions lower.

Key Events In The "OPEC Is Optimistic About A Deal" Week

The key economic releases this week are consumer confidence on Tuesday, ISM manufacturing on Thursday, and the employment report on Friday. There are a few scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. The Beige Book for the December FOMC period will be released on Wednesday.