Personal Income

What Has Gone Wrong With Oil Prices, Debt, & GDP Growth?

It would be nice if we could figure out a way to make our economy last forever, but it is doubtful that we can. Ultimately, the battle between diminishing returns and increased complexity seems likely to be settled in a way that causes the economy to collapse.

Atlanta Fed Slashes Q4 GDP Estimate From 3.6% To 2.4%

When we looked at the latest disappointing spending data this morning, we warned that GDP would likely be weakned, however we had no idea by just how much. The answer was revealed moments ago courtesy of the Atlanta Fed, which updated its GDPNow model and said that its forecast for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.4 percent on November 30, down from 3.6 percent on November 23.

US Savings Rate Surged Pre-Election As Spending Slowed, Weakens Q3 GDP

After an upwardly revised September surge, US personal spending growth slowed to just 0.3% in October and with incomes rising more than expected (+0.6% vs +0.4% exp), it appears Americans were careful heading into the election as the savings rate surged from 5.7% to 6.0%. However, the weaker than expected growth in spending will likely knock Q3 GDP revisions lower.

Key Events In The "OPEC Is Optimistic About A Deal" Week

The key economic releases this week are consumer confidence on Tuesday, ISM manufacturing on Thursday, and the employment report on Friday. There are a few scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. The Beige Book for the December FOMC period will be released on Wednesday.

Global Stocks Slide On Italian Bank Worries; Dollar Dips As Trumpflation Takes A Back Seat

European shares dipped and U.S. equity-index futures (-0.3%) pointed to a lower open as traders questioned the stability of the Italian banking sector ahead of next weekend's referendum as well as the longevity of the Trumpflation rally, pressuring the dollar.  "It's a bit of a pull back in the dollar," said Societe Generale strategist Alvin Tan. "The fall in oil is pushing back U.S. bond yields and that is leading the consolidation in the dollar.. there is more scepticism about an (OPEC) output cut now."

Trump Goes To The White House At 11am To Begin Transition Process

  • 11:00 am: Trump meets with Obama in the Oval Office
  • 12:30 pm: Trump and his vice president-elect, Mike Pence, will meet with House Speaker Paul Ryan for lunch.
  • 2:45 pm: Pence and Biden will hold a closed-press meeting at the White House, the vice president’s office said.

Global Bond Selloff Resumes; Stocks Rise Following Strong Chinese Data

With October, the worst month for stocks since January, now in the history books S&P futures are eager to telegraph that the streak of five consecutive will end, with a modest gain of 0.3% in overnight trading, coupled with mixed global markets as the global bond selloff returned after strong Chinese economic data prompted concerns about rising global inflation.

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week

The key economic releases this week include the personal income and spending report on Monday, ISM manufacturing on Tuesday, ISM non-manufacturing on Wednesday, and the employment report on Friday. The November FOMC statement will be released on Wednesday at 2PM.

Real Disposable Income Per Capita Slides For 2nd Straight Month

Personal Income rose less than expected in September (+0.3% vs +0.4% exp MoM) and thanks to a downward revision in August, Spending rose more than expected (+0.5% vs +0.4% MoM). Both income (+3.2%) and spending (+3.7%) growth rose in September on a year-over-year basis with service sector wages rising dramatically relative to goods-producing. Thanks to the historical revisions, personal savings dipped a little from 5.8% to 5.7% as real disposable income fell for the 2nd straight month.

Q3 GDP Jumps 2.9% On Rise In Inventory And Exports, Offset By Weak Consumption And Investment

For once it appears that the Atlanta Fed, with its 2.1% Q3 GDP nowcast was overly pessimistic, and moments ago the BEA reported that in the third quarter, US GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.9%  according to the first "advance" estimate released up more than double from the Q2 real GDP of 1.4%, and beating Wall Street consensus of a 2.6% rise in the quarter.