Personal Income

FX Week Ahead Preview: All Eyes On Payrolls Friday

Despite the NY market holiday over Independence day in the US, we have a number of notable data releases leading up to the main event next week in the May employment report (Friday).

S&P Futures, Euro Shares Start 2nd Half Solidly In The Green; Oil Rises For 8th Day

S&P500 futures have started the second half solidly in the green, up 0.3% to 2,429, tracking European markets broadly in the green, while Asian stocks fell slightly and crude oil is little changed. With US markets set to close at 1pm today trading volumes in many markets remain light before Tuesday’s July 4th holiday

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: Yellen, Inflation, Durables And GDP

The main releases this week are the durable goods report on Monday, the Q1 GDP revision on Thursday, and the personal income and spending report on Friday. There are also many speaking engagements by Fed officials including a speech by Fed Chair Yellen on Tuesday.

Italy Bank Bailouts Send European, Global Stocks Higher; Gold Flash Crashes

S&P futures point to a higher open following gains in Asia but mostly Europe, where stocks are sharply higher following the €17 billion bailout of the two Veneto banks in Italy, the biggest taxpayer funded bank rescue in modern Italian history, as well as Dan Loeb's activist campaign of the world's biggest food company, Nestle

Illinois' Economic Growth Is Worse Than During The Great Depression

America’s Great Depression started off worse from 1930-1932, but the recovery came on stronger. By contrast, Illinois did not have as steep of a fall during the first years of the Great Recession, but Illinois’ recovery from the Great Recession has been abysmal.

State Corporate Tax Receipts Just Crashed The Most Since The Recession

After flatlining for the past year, US income tax receipts  have been disappointing, and have posted a sharp drop since the start of the year, which is "sounding an alarm about the health of the US economy." More concering, corporate income tax receipts at the state level fell a sharp $7bn in 1Q, the biggest drop since the recession 

The Demographic Divide: A Police State Of Mind

"... the last thing any of us want to see is a Police State of any kind. But the growing risk is that the next recession and deflating asset prices could well alter the rules of engagement between federal and state authorities on more levels than any of us care to envision."

Quiet Month End Markets Hide "Below The Surface" Fireworks

It has been another quiet session for global equity markets, with S&P futures flat, as are European and Asian stocks, which is perhaps odd, as there was quite a bit of newsflow and, in the case of China, outright fireworks.

Personal Spending Growth Tumbles To 7-Month Lows After Dramatic Revisions

Having weakened to unchanged for the last two months, April saw personal spending rise 0.4% MoM (as expected) and personal income rise 0.4% MoM (as expected). However, year-over-year growth in spending (+4.3%, weakest since Sept 2016) and income (+3.6%, weakest since Jan 2017) both signaled a rolling over of the post-Trump exuberance (just in time for another rate-hike by the The Fed).