Personal Income

New Jersey In Fiscal Peril As David Tepper Departs

First it was Connecticut, now another state is in the crosshairs following the imminent "exstatiation" of another prominent hedge fund billionaire, David Tepper.  The decision by billionaire hedge-fund manager David Tepper to quit New Jersey for tax-friendly Florida has put the Garden State in fiscal peril, and  could complicate estimates of how much tax money the struggling state will collect, the head of the Legislature’s nonpartisan research branch warned lawmakers.

Futures, Oil Dip On Stronger Dollar Ahead Of "Hawkish" Yellen Speech

With Europe back from Easter break, we are seeing a modest continuation of the dollar strength witnessed every day last week, which in turn is pressuring oil and the commodity complex, and leading to some selling in US equity futures (down 0.2% to 2024) ahead of today's main event which is Janet Yellen's speech as the Economic Club of New York at 12:20pm, an event which judging by risk assets so far is expected to be far more hawkish than dovish: after all the S&P 500 is north of 2,000 for now.

January Spending Surge "Revised" Away, Pushing Savings Rate To Highest Since 2012; Personal Income Slides

Headline data for income modestly beat expectations (+0.2% MoM vs +0.1% MoM) and spending met expectations at +0.1% MoM respectively. Income growth YoY slowed to 4.0% however - near its weakest since Nov 2013. Spending growth also slowed to +3.8% YoY (from 2.9% in Jan) but the big story is the major downward revisions in spending. January's +0.5% 'surge' in spending was revised to a mere +0.1% trickle - the weakest in over a year.

Futures Rise In Thin Trading On Back Of Yen Weakness; Europe Closed

With European markets closed across the continent on Monday as the Easter holiday continues, overnight Asia was busy with China Shanghai Composite letting off some steam, and closing down 0.7% at session lows on concerns the Shanghai and Shenzhen home bubble have been popped by the politburo, Japan was a different story with the Yen sliding following a report by the Sankei newspaper that Abe will announce in May his intention to delay the planned levy hike, coupled with additional reports that Japan will unveil a major fiscal stimulus (and just on Friday Abe said he is "not thinking at all about supplemental budget" at this time).

Why "It’s Hard Being A Bear"

It is always hard to buck the crowd, to be a bear when the market is up this much, this fast. Stocks are rallying and being underweight gets harder to maintain every day. The bulls are out there yapping about how this was just another correction, another dip to buy and that we better get back in, yada, yada, yada. What makes being bearish so hard is the noise of the perpetually bullish street, the lure of easy money in a market you know is overvalued but keeps going higher. Like JM Keynes "I change my mind when the facts change." Despite the rally, the facts – at least for now – still favor the bears.

Yellen, Draghi, Kuroda: Deranged Lab Rats

It’s sad that “we the people” continue to allow deranged captured academics, under the complete command of the banking cabal, to control the destiny of our country. They have failed for 103 years, but we continue to bow down to these central bankers as if they knew what they were doing. They do know how to debase the currency, obfuscate true inflation, prop up financial markets through monetary manipulation, and generate prodigious amounts of propaganda and misinformation to coverup their true purposes. The people will sit idly by until these deranged rats destroy the world.

Can US Equities Go Green For The Year?

With yesterday’s impressive equity rally, every trader is asking the same question: “Can U.S. equities go green on the year?” To think through this question, we outline the scenarios that DO push equities higher (a good jobs number, a quiescent Fed, and good economic data) and compare them to those that DON’T (presidential politics, oil prices, and corporate fundamentals).

"Has Everyone Lost Their Freaking Minds?"

It’s getting weird and the market is having a tough time figuring out what to take seriously, what to ignore, what to laugh nervously about and what to just laugh at. Are serious economists actually have a debate about whether it is a good idea to just print up cash and pass it out? Is that really monetary policy? Are governments really talking about banning actual currency, the very money created by that government? Money that depends, oh by the way, solely on people’s trust that the government will stand behind the money they are about to outlaw? Has everyone lost their freaking minds?

Rate Hike Odds Rise As January Income, Spending Surge Most Since May

Amid the collapse of PMIs, regional Fed surveys, and surging inventories, personal income and spending both surged 0.5% MoM in January  - both better than expected. This is the best monthly gain since May 2015 as a drastically-revised data series notches the savings rate lower historically, but rose MoM. It seems Mester's comments this morning that a March hike is still on the table just got further support... time for another market crash to nsure that doesn't happen.

Global Stocks, Oil Continue Streamrolling Shorts On Last Minute Hopes For G-20 Stimulus Announcement

With the conclusion of this weekend's G-20 unknown, and many still expecting a major stimulus, the squeeze will likely continue into the close of trading ahead of the  weekend when nobody will want to be caught short into what may end up being another global coordinated intervention to prop up markets. “With a lot of policy events coming there is a fair chance of more stimulus plans so the markets can squeeze higher,” said Benno Galliker, a trader at Luzerner Kantonalbank AG. "The big reversal shows that there is some expectation building up into those events."

Guest Post: Will A "Socialist" Government Make Americans Freer?

Ultimately, electing someone significantly further left than Obama will not help matters in any sense at all, except maybe that it will show how little trust we should put in anyone who willingly wears the socialist label. The only good outcome of a Sanders administration may be that we’ll all say to ourselves afterward: “Well, we won’t be trying that again!”

The New "Big Short"? - Australia's Housing Bubble Is "In the Grip Of Insanity"

"The property bubble is everything to this economy and the country’s citizens, whether they know it or not, are 'all in'." Those who so to speak 'live inside the bubble' are no longer aware of its dangers. The mentality of Australians is generally well aligned with the country’s great weather – their outlook usually tends to be 'happy-go-lucky' and optimistic; but Australia’s citizens have far greater exposure to the bubble than is immediately obvious.