Personal Income

Dangerous Bubbles In Plain Sight

Relative to disposable income, the value of household financial assets now far exceeds the last two bubble peaks. And that has happened in an economic environment which suggests just the opposite. To wit, valuation multiples and cap rates should be falling owing the fact that the productivity and growth capacity of the US economy has been heading south ever since the turn of the century. So here’s the danger...

What Do We Know?

"These linear thinkers can’t understand why their playbook of lies, misinformation, pointless social justice issues and a myriad of other inane distractions aren’t working this time. They fail to acknowledge that history is cyclical and we’ve entered the phase when generational cohorts are aligned for dramatic sweeping change. The data is there for all to see, but those benefiting from the current perverted paradigm will not be swept aside without a bloody fight."

Key Events In The Coming Extremely Busy Week

The week ahead is striking in the sheer number of central bank speakers, but with the Fed on hold until December and the BoJ’s new framework now revealed, focus turns squarely from central banks to US politics. The first US presidential debate at the start of the week will be a key focus.

Global Stocks Tumble, US Futures Slide On Deutsche Bank Fears, Central Bank And Commodity Concerns

While today's biggest event for both markets and politics will be tonight's highly anticipated first presidential debate between Trump and Hillary, markets are waking up to some early turmoil in both Asia and Europe, with declines in banks and energy producers dragging down stock-markets around the world, pushing investors to once again seek the safety of government bonds and the yen.

State Tax Revenues Plunge In Q2

tax collections will be down 2.1% in the second quarter relative to last year, reflecting a decline of 3.3% in personal income taxes and a 9.2% plunge in corporate tax collections.  The trend in individual income taxes at the state level in recent quarters tracks the sharp decline we have reported previously at the federal level.

The Biggest Washington Whopper Yet

It turns out that 52% of all the new jobs - 5.25 million - reported by the BLS since the end of the recession were imagined, not counted. This amounts to still another whopper from the government statistical mills, and more evidence that the so-called recovery is based on a tissue of lies.

"Clinton Foundation Is Charity Fraud Of Epic Proportions", Analyst Charges In Stunning Takedown

"The Clinton Foundation appears to be a rogue charity that has neither been organized nor operated lawfully from inception to date-as you will grow to realize, it is a case study in international charity fraud, of mammoth proportions...  Foundation entities are part of a network that has defrauded donors and created illegal private gains of approximately $100 billion in combined magnitude since 1997."

Dear Janet... TED Spread Confirms 'Risk', Not 'Policy' Is Driving Rates

Once again FOMC policy is at odds with what is taking place in deeper and far more intellectually-sound money markets. The TED spread confirms risk not policy as the underlying mechanism, while the eurodollar futures price reveals the growing pessimism about what that could mean for the intermediate and long terms in real economic conditions.

Consumer Confidence Soars To 11-Month Highs (With 5 Standard Deviation Beat)

Slumping economic growth and rising gas prices don't matter. US Consumer Confidence jumped to 101.1 in August - highest since Sept 2015 - smashing expectations by almost 5 standard deviations as stocks hit record highs. Notably 'current expectations' rose to their highest since Aug 2007.

Futures Flat, Global Stocks Higher As Dollar Resumes Rise

The quiet overnight market had been focused on the upcoming comments by Stanley Fischer, who is set to give a Bloomberg TV interview at 6:30am ET, where he was expected to expand on his recent hawkish comments. Heading into Fischer's appearance, the dollar strengthened, global stocks rose, oil hovered around $47, while US index futures were largely flat and Treasuries fell.

It's All About This Friday's Payrolls: Key Events In The Coming Week

After Friday's Jackson Hole repricing of Fed hike expectations, which made it clear that the fate of a September rate hike is now in the hands of the August payrolls number, the main risk event of the week is therefore this Friday's US NFPs for which consensus expects a reading of 180K, down from last month's 217K print. A number substantially above this will make a September hike virtually certain, and potentially risks roiling markets as good news will likely be bad news this time around.