Personal Income

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week

The key economic releases this week include the personal income and spending report on Monday, ISM manufacturing on Tuesday, ISM non-manufacturing on Wednesday, and the employment report on Friday. The November FOMC statement will be released on Wednesday at 2PM.

Real Disposable Income Per Capita Slides For 2nd Straight Month

Personal Income rose less than expected in September (+0.3% vs +0.4% exp MoM) and thanks to a downward revision in August, Spending rose more than expected (+0.5% vs +0.4% MoM). Both income (+3.2%) and spending (+3.7%) growth rose in September on a year-over-year basis with service sector wages rising dramatically relative to goods-producing. Thanks to the historical revisions, personal savings dipped a little from 5.8% to 5.7% as real disposable income fell for the 2nd straight month.

Q3 GDP Jumps 2.9% On Rise In Inventory And Exports, Offset By Weak Consumption And Investment

For once it appears that the Atlanta Fed, with its 2.1% Q3 GDP nowcast was overly pessimistic, and moments ago the BEA reported that in the third quarter, US GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.9%  according to the first "advance" estimate released up more than double from the Q2 real GDP of 1.4%, and beating Wall Street consensus of a 2.6% rise in the quarter.

US Budget Deficit Spikes 34%, Grows For The First Time Since 2009

In fiscal 2016 the deficit was 3.2% of GDP, compared to a deficit of 2.5% of GDP a year earlier, which was the first increase in the deficit as a share of GDP since 2009. It was also the first increase in the deficit in dollar terms since the financial crisis.

President Obama's Premature Victory Lap

Before President Obama takes his final victory lap with claims of creating the most robust employment recovery since the 1990’s, the data clearly suggests otherwise. Of course, if you ask the 37% that are no longer counted as part of the labor force, they will tell you the same thing.

Futures Flat With Germany Closed; Sterling Slides On "Hard Brexit" Fears

With China, German and South Korea closed for holiday, it has been a relatively quiet day in overnight equity trading, especially in the one stock everyone is keeping a close eye on, Deutsche Bank, whose ADRs are trading fractionally lower, down under 1% in premarket trading. Cable plunged on "Hard Brexit" fears sending the FTSE100 to fresh 16 month highs.

US Spending Disappoints In August As Savings Rate Rises For Second Month

After pesonal spending growth slowed modestly one month ago, rising 3.8% Y/Y, in August US consumption once again disappointed, staying flat in the month, below the 0.1% expected sequential rebound, although this was offset by an upward revision to the last month's data from 0.3% to 0.4%. On an inflation adjusted basis, as feeds into the GDP beancount, Real PCE dipped -0.1% in August, well below July's 0.3% bounce, missing the expectation of a 0.1% rise while the Core PCE Index was inline with the 1.7% expected on a Y/Y basis.

Dangerous Bubbles In Plain Sight

Relative to disposable income, the value of household financial assets now far exceeds the last two bubble peaks. And that has happened in an economic environment which suggests just the opposite. To wit, valuation multiples and cap rates should be falling owing the fact that the productivity and growth capacity of the US economy has been heading south ever since the turn of the century. So here’s the danger...

What Do We Know?

"These linear thinkers can’t understand why their playbook of lies, misinformation, pointless social justice issues and a myriad of other inane distractions aren’t working this time. They fail to acknowledge that history is cyclical and we’ve entered the phase when generational cohorts are aligned for dramatic sweeping change. The data is there for all to see, but those benefiting from the current perverted paradigm will not be swept aside without a bloody fight."

Key Events In The Coming Extremely Busy Week

The week ahead is striking in the sheer number of central bank speakers, but with the Fed on hold until December and the BoJ’s new framework now revealed, focus turns squarely from central banks to US politics. The first US presidential debate at the start of the week will be a key focus.

Global Stocks Tumble, US Futures Slide On Deutsche Bank Fears, Central Bank And Commodity Concerns

While today's biggest event for both markets and politics will be tonight's highly anticipated first presidential debate between Trump and Hillary, markets are waking up to some early turmoil in both Asia and Europe, with declines in banks and energy producers dragging down stock-markets around the world, pushing investors to once again seek the safety of government bonds and the yen.