Personal Income

And Now Fake Consumer Confidence Too: Gallup Says Confidence In The Economy "Tumbled"

"Americans' confidence in the U.S. economy tumbled along with the Dow Jones industrial average last week. Though still in positive territory, Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index (ECI) dropped six points to a score of +5 for the week ending March 26. This is the lowest weekly average since the presidential election in November." - Gallup

Consumer Confidence Soars To Highest Since The Peak Of The Dot-Com Bubble

Conference Board Consumer Confidence smashed expectations in March - bursting to 125.6 (114 exp) - the highest since December 2000. Both the present situation and expectations soared, jobs plentiful jumped to its highest since Sept 2001.It is clear that confidence is inspired by stock market values, not real earnings growth.

Key Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week are the consumer confidence report on Tuesday, the third estimate of Q4 GDP on Thursday, and the PCE report as well as Personal Income & Spending data on Friday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week.

Global Stocks Slide, S&P Futures Tumble Below 50DMA As "Trump Trade" Collapses

Global stocks are lower across the board to start the week, as concerns about Trump's administration to pull off a material tax reform plan finally emerge, pressuring S&P futures some 20 points lower this morning, following European and Asian shares lower, while crude oil prices fall unable to find support in this weekend's OPEC meeting in Kuwait where a committee recommended to extend oil production cuts by another 6 months.

Raising Interest Rates Can't End Well

"The economy looks to me like a type of Ponzi Scheme. It depends on both rising energy consumption and rising debt. Judging from the problems we are having now, it seems to be reaching its limit in the near term. Raising interest rates will tend to push it even further toward its limit, or over the limit. The world economy is operating at too close to 'stall speed'. The financial system is too fragile."

Yield Curve Collapse & The Fed's "Surprising Economic Strength"

As Lael Brainard piled on The Fed's sudden utter hawkishness, following Dudley, Harker, Kaplan, and Williams, we noticed a common thread behind the need to hike rates in March - each implicitly or explicitly noted America's "surprisingly strong economy." This led to a stunning WTF moment...

Real Personal Spending Crashes Most Since 2009

While the key number analysts were looking for in today's Personal Spending data was the PCE Price Index, both headline and core, which rose by 1.9% and 1.7% respectively, just shy of the Fed's 2.0% inflation target, the internals on US incomes and spending were just as notable. 

Global Stocks, US Futures Surge, Bonds Tumble On "Presidential" Trump Speech, Hawkish Fed Speakers

The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields jumped on Wednesday, while global stocks and S&P futures rose as investors gave generally favorable marks to President Donald Trump's first speech to Congress, while paying more attention to the sudden onslaught of Fed hawks who repriced March Fed hike odds from 50% to 80% in a single afternoon. Strong economic data from China and Europe helped propell global risk assets higher.

Key Events In The Coming US

The main focus this week will be on President Trump's speech to Congress and Chair Yellen's speech which is the last before the blackout period. US durable goods, ISM, the BoC rate decision, EZ CPI, UK PMIs and a busy calendar in Australia & Scandinavia also coming up.

Wall Street Responds To Today's Jobs Report

Following today's jobs report, the market's reaction to the unexpectedly strong January payrolls visualized in the charts below, is straightforward: the disappointing wage growth is an indication that the Fed may not hike rates for quite a bit longer than expected, and will likely will be forced to reduce its rate hike expectations from 3 to 2 (in line with the market) or fewer if wage growth continue to stagnate.

Futures Fall On Rising Trump Uncertainty; Europe Stocks Rise As Euro-Area Inflation Surges

European bonds fell and stocks rose led by banks and retailers as surging inflation data prompted investors to switch into reflationary assets even as speculation about ECB tapering has returned. Asian stocks and US equity futures declined. The Yen and gold advanced after Trump’s firing of the U.S. acting attorney general added to concern over the unpredictability of decisions in the new administration.