Personal Income

President Obama's Premature Victory Lap

Before President Obama takes his final victory lap with claims of creating the most robust employment recovery since the 1990’s, the data clearly suggests otherwise. Of course, if you ask the 37% that are no longer counted as part of the labor force, they will tell you the same thing.

Futures Flat With Germany Closed; Sterling Slides On "Hard Brexit" Fears

With China, German and South Korea closed for holiday, it has been a relatively quiet day in overnight equity trading, especially in the one stock everyone is keeping a close eye on, Deutsche Bank, whose ADRs are trading fractionally lower, down under 1% in premarket trading. Cable plunged on "Hard Brexit" fears sending the FTSE100 to fresh 16 month highs.

US Spending Disappoints In August As Savings Rate Rises For Second Month

After pesonal spending growth slowed modestly one month ago, rising 3.8% Y/Y, in August US consumption once again disappointed, staying flat in the month, below the 0.1% expected sequential rebound, although this was offset by an upward revision to the last month's data from 0.3% to 0.4%. On an inflation adjusted basis, as feeds into the GDP beancount, Real PCE dipped -0.1% in August, well below July's 0.3% bounce, missing the expectation of a 0.1% rise while the Core PCE Index was inline with the 1.7% expected on a Y/Y basis.

Dangerous Bubbles In Plain Sight

Relative to disposable income, the value of household financial assets now far exceeds the last two bubble peaks. And that has happened in an economic environment which suggests just the opposite. To wit, valuation multiples and cap rates should be falling owing the fact that the productivity and growth capacity of the US economy has been heading south ever since the turn of the century. So here’s the danger...

What Do We Know?

"These linear thinkers can’t understand why their playbook of lies, misinformation, pointless social justice issues and a myriad of other inane distractions aren’t working this time. They fail to acknowledge that history is cyclical and we’ve entered the phase when generational cohorts are aligned for dramatic sweeping change. The data is there for all to see, but those benefiting from the current perverted paradigm will not be swept aside without a bloody fight."

Key Events In The Coming Extremely Busy Week

The week ahead is striking in the sheer number of central bank speakers, but with the Fed on hold until December and the BoJ’s new framework now revealed, focus turns squarely from central banks to US politics. The first US presidential debate at the start of the week will be a key focus.

Global Stocks Tumble, US Futures Slide On Deutsche Bank Fears, Central Bank And Commodity Concerns

While today's biggest event for both markets and politics will be tonight's highly anticipated first presidential debate between Trump and Hillary, markets are waking up to some early turmoil in both Asia and Europe, with declines in banks and energy producers dragging down stock-markets around the world, pushing investors to once again seek the safety of government bonds and the yen.

State Tax Revenues Plunge In Q2

tax collections will be down 2.1% in the second quarter relative to last year, reflecting a decline of 3.3% in personal income taxes and a 9.2% plunge in corporate tax collections.  The trend in individual income taxes at the state level in recent quarters tracks the sharp decline we have reported previously at the federal level.

The Biggest Washington Whopper Yet

It turns out that 52% of all the new jobs - 5.25 million - reported by the BLS since the end of the recession were imagined, not counted. This amounts to still another whopper from the government statistical mills, and more evidence that the so-called recovery is based on a tissue of lies.