Personal Income

Key Events In The Coming Extremely Busy Week

The week ahead is striking in the sheer number of central bank speakers, but with the Fed on hold until December and the BoJ’s new framework now revealed, focus turns squarely from central banks to US politics. The first US presidential debate at the start of the week will be a key focus.

Global Stocks Tumble, US Futures Slide On Deutsche Bank Fears, Central Bank And Commodity Concerns

While today's biggest event for both markets and politics will be tonight's highly anticipated first presidential debate between Trump and Hillary, markets are waking up to some early turmoil in both Asia and Europe, with declines in banks and energy producers dragging down stock-markets around the world, pushing investors to once again seek the safety of government bonds and the yen.

State Tax Revenues Plunge In Q2

tax collections will be down 2.1% in the second quarter relative to last year, reflecting a decline of 3.3% in personal income taxes and a 9.2% plunge in corporate tax collections.  The trend in individual income taxes at the state level in recent quarters tracks the sharp decline we have reported previously at the federal level.

The Biggest Washington Whopper Yet

It turns out that 52% of all the new jobs - 5.25 million - reported by the BLS since the end of the recession were imagined, not counted. This amounts to still another whopper from the government statistical mills, and more evidence that the so-called recovery is based on a tissue of lies.

"Clinton Foundation Is Charity Fraud Of Epic Proportions", Analyst Charges In Stunning Takedown

"The Clinton Foundation appears to be a rogue charity that has neither been organized nor operated lawfully from inception to date-as you will grow to realize, it is a case study in international charity fraud, of mammoth proportions...  Foundation entities are part of a network that has defrauded donors and created illegal private gains of approximately $100 billion in combined magnitude since 1997."

Dear Janet... TED Spread Confirms 'Risk', Not 'Policy' Is Driving Rates

Once again FOMC policy is at odds with what is taking place in deeper and far more intellectually-sound money markets. The TED spread confirms risk not policy as the underlying mechanism, while the eurodollar futures price reveals the growing pessimism about what that could mean for the intermediate and long terms in real economic conditions.

Consumer Confidence Soars To 11-Month Highs (With 5 Standard Deviation Beat)

Slumping economic growth and rising gas prices don't matter. US Consumer Confidence jumped to 101.1 in August - highest since Sept 2015 - smashing expectations by almost 5 standard deviations as stocks hit record highs. Notably 'current expectations' rose to their highest since Aug 2007.

Futures Flat, Global Stocks Higher As Dollar Resumes Rise

The quiet overnight market had been focused on the upcoming comments by Stanley Fischer, who is set to give a Bloomberg TV interview at 6:30am ET, where he was expected to expand on his recent hawkish comments. Heading into Fischer's appearance, the dollar strengthened, global stocks rose, oil hovered around $47, while US index futures were largely flat and Treasuries fell.

It's All About This Friday's Payrolls: Key Events In The Coming Week

After Friday's Jackson Hole repricing of Fed hike expectations, which made it clear that the fate of a September rate hike is now in the hands of the August payrolls number, the main risk event of the week is therefore this Friday's US NFPs for which consensus expects a reading of 180K, down from last month's 217K print. A number substantially above this will make a September hike virtually certain, and potentially risks roiling markets as good news will likely be bad news this time around.

Global Stocks Slide, Futs Flat; Commodities Down On Stronger Dollar As Hike Odds Reprice Higher

The dollar index rose to a two-week high on Monday, while bond yields jumped to their highest since June and global stocks sold off after senior Federal Reserve officials indicated a U.S. interest rate increase was on the cards in the near term. The Fed effect - and the stronger dollar - reverberated through markets, pressuring stocks in Europe and emerging markets, pushing oil below $47 and the commodity complex lower.

Bad Data, Broader Alarms, And Business Cycles

The economy is pointing downward with alarms ringing in a wider and broader variety of important economic accounts. From this view, it is no wonder the FOMC overreacted to the May payroll report; that’s all that is left as it is more and more isolated.

Rising Recession Risks & The Tears In America's Economic Fabric

Stock market “bulls” should pray that interest rates don’t rise. Don’t blame those poor consumers for not spending – they are spending everything they have and then some. Just one word describes the outcome of that event given the current excessively leveraged consumption based economy of today – disaster.