Philly Fed

Key Events In The Coming Week

Looking at the week ahead, the US election enters the home stretch and politics will likely dominate the headlines, especially the closer races in Congress. Despite data being overshadowed by politics, there are some key US releases coming up, with the first estimate of Q3 GDP, the employment cost index and durable goods the main focus.

Futures Drop As ECB Confusion Persists, Dollar Rises To Seven Month High; Yuan Plunges

Asian stocks and S&P futures fall modestly and European shares are little changed as traders digested the surprising reticence from yesterday's ECB meeting. The dollar jumped to 7 month highs, pressuring EM currencies and pushing the euro to its weakest level since March and below the Brexit lows, after Mario Draghi shut down talk of tapering, while the Yuan dropped to the lowest since 2010.

Global Stocks, US Futures Modestly Higher As Debate Digested, Draghi Eyed

Global stocks were modestly higher, before the European Central Bank gives its policy update, while investors weigh mixed earnings results. Asian stocks rise, U.S. equity-index futures are little changed.  The euro touched its weakest level since July and stocks in the region fell after their first back-to-back gains in two weeks.

Key Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week include industrial production on Monday, CPI on Tuesday, and housing starts on Wednesday. There are several scheduled speeches from Fed officials this week. The Beige Book for the November FOMC period will be released on Wednesday.

"The Most Important Ever" Payrolls Preview (Again)

The distribution of guesses for tomorrow's "most important payrolls print ever" skews modestly to the upside after the biggest spike in ISM employment ever this week jarred some economists to the more optimistic side with Goldman Sachs expecting a Fed-inspiring drop in the unemployment rate, rise in average hourly earnings, and better than expected payrolls of 190k (172k exp).

Preview Of Key Events In The Coming Week

Politics will continue to be in focus as US elections draw closer, with attention on post-debate polling numbers high. However, this week should see a pivot toward data with markets looking for evidence of the summer wobble in activity data reversing. In the US the main focus will be the NFP and ISM reports.

"There's A Real Problem Here" - Did Fed's Plosser Just Admit Trump Is Right About Yellen?

Central bankers "wring their hands all the time," Plosser noted that The Fed was very "concerned about credibility," and was "pretty good at conjuring up reasons not to act." His mutinous discussion then concluded, sounding very Trumpian, by noting that The Fed "shouldn't be afraid a recession might come," exclaiming "there's a real problem here" with The Fed.

Key Events In The Coming Central Bank-Dominated Week

Central banks will take center stage this week, with the Boj and Fed within hours of each other, then also the RBNZ and Norges all delivering policy decisions. Of the four however, the BoJ will likely steal the spotlight, especially as we expect no changes in policy from the other three.

US Futures; Euro Stocks Slide On Deutsche Bank Liquidity Fears; Bonds Bid

Following yesterday's paradoxical US stock surge catalyzed by a bevy of bad macroeonomic news, the overnight session has seen some good old "risk off" mood which hit European shares as a result of the previously reported $14 billion DOJ claim against Deutsche Bank, which sent Europe's biggest bank tumbling, dragging the banking sector lower, while a continued drop in the price of oil pushed energy companies lower.

US Futures, European Stocks Rebound, Bonds Fall Ahead Of US Data Deluge

The overnight session started with more weakness out of Asia, where chatter that the BOJ may end up doing nothing despite all the trial balloons (as we hinted yesterday), sent the USDJPY sliding, pushing the Nikkei lower, leading to a 7th consecutive decline in the Topix, the longest such stretch since 2014 even though the BOJ is now actively buying a record amount of ETFs. However, the modest dip in S&P futures and European stocks proved too much for BTFD algos, and risk promptly rebounded.

Key Events In The Coming "Fed Blackout" Week

The spotlight turns to US data and Fed speakers ahead of the Fed blackout period this week. The BoE and SNB meet to decide policy but consensus expect no change from either. Elsewhere we get inflation data from the US, UK, Sweden & EZ (F), Q2 GDP from NZ & SW and labor market data from the UK & AU.

"Global Market Rout" - Bond Selloff Snowballs Into Stock Liquidations On "Stimulus Pullback" Fears

With traders in the US arriving at their desks, the global selling appears to be accelerating and as Bloomberg notes, "a selloff in fixed income is starting to snowball into a global market rout" driven by what Reuters dubbed "growing concerns that global central banks' commitment to the post-crisis orthodoxy of super-low interest rates and asset purchase programs may be waning."