Philly Fed

Stocks, Dollar, Yields Rally On Mnuchin Tax Cut Comments

In a day full of upside catalyst for the reflation trade including the strong TIPS auction, the speculation that the Obamacare repeal effort is back on track, and perhaps best of all the absence of hard data (today's Philly Fed "soft data" was, well, quite soft), the dollar, the S&P and Treasury yields all rose, after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that "we are close to bring forward major tax reform", refuting speculation that it may be delayed into 2018.

Europe And S&P Futures Higher, Dollar Drops As OPEC Talks Oil Up

European stocks rose amid earnings beats, offsetting weakness in the energy sector and easing investor concerns ahead of the weekend’s French election. Asian shares and U.S. futures also rise. The dollar weakens against the euro and most crosses, while crude oil rebounds following renewed OPEC chatter of a production cut, this time with Saudi Arabia seemingly onboard.

Global Stocks Slide As Iron Ore Crashes; Pound Jumps After UK Calls Snap Elections

European stocks slide  s traders return from a 4-day Easter holidays, Asian equities likewise drop pressured by the ongoing rout in iron ore, while U.S. stock-index futures point to a lower open. British markets were roiled after U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May said she would seek an early election on June 8. The FTSE 100 droped 1.3%, on the news, hitting the lowest since Feb. 24

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: Payrolls; FOMC Minutes; Trump Meets Xi

The key economic releases in the US this week are ISM manufacturing on Monday, ISM non-manufacturing on Wednesday, and the employment report on Friday. The minutes of the March FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday, while several Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week. The meeting between Trump and Xi set for Thursday and Friday at Mar-A-Lago will likely attract significant attention.

Goldman's 'Analyst Index' Tumbles In March As 'Soft' Survey Data Rolls Over

Since the election, talking heads have crowed about improving economic data (macro- and micro-). However, what they have failed to mention is all of the improvements have been in 'soft' survey and sentiment data, not 'hard' economic figures; and now, judging from the plunge in Goldman Sachs Analyst Index, soft data is starting to lose faith rapidly.

These US States Entered A Recession In 2016

Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Wyoming experienced recessions last year, while others saw milder contractions, including Maine, Montana, North Dakota, Louisiana and West Virginia.

'Soft' Data Snaps - Philly Fed Drops Most In 11 Months As Stagflation Surges

With only 'soft' survey data supporting any hope of proclaiming economic success post-Trump (as 'hard' data has tumbled), the cracks in that sentiment are starting to show. Philly Fed's business outlook tumbled from 33 year highs in March (falling the most since March 2016). Prices Paid surged in March as New Orders stagnated and general business activity tumbled.

A Critical Week For Markets Begins: Preview Of The Main Events

A pivotal, catalyst-filled week for global markets is now underway as investors brace for the second US interest rate hike in 2 quarter, a Dutch election, the expiration of the US debt ceiling deal, the imminent invoking of Article 50 by Theresa May, the first G20 finance ministers' meeting of the Trump era and perhaps the disclosure of Trump's proposed budget.

Global Stocks Rise, S&P Futs Flat As Dollar Rebounds Ahead Of Critical Week For Markets

European bourses advance and Asian share rose led by a surge in Hong Kong stocks which rose the most in three months as Japan hit 15 month highs. U.S. futures are little changed along while the dollar rebounded from session lows after Friday's selloff. Crude oil has continued its retreat, down 0.2% and sliding for a 6th straight day after breifly dropping below $48 in overnight trading.

"It Can Only Disappoint" - What Wall Street Expects From Today's Jobs Report

If wages disappoint for the second month in a row, then markets may begin to ease back their hiking expectations for the rest of the year. For markets to price out a rate hike in March, wage growth would probably need to slow markedly and the headline NFP number to fall well below 100K.