Philly Fed

Key Events In The Coming Week: All About Brexit

With global markets gyrating on every piece of news surrounding the Brexit drama, what’s the timetable for UK-related (and all other macro) events this week and beyond?

Philly Fed Jumps On Surge In Prices Paid; Jobs, New Orders, & "Hope" Plunge

The jump in Philly Fed (from -1.8 to +4.7, beating expectations of +1.0) is considerably less exuberant than the mainstream would like to believe. The biggest driver of this jump back into 'expansion' was a huge surge in "Prices Paid" to the highest since Oct 2014. We are not sure how that is such great news as Prices Received collapsed. Furthermore, number of employees tumbled, New Orders fell to 4 month lows, and average workweek remains deep in contraction. Additionally, 'Hope' fell as the six month outlook dropped to 3 month lows. But apart from all that, yay... Philly Fed is up.

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week

This week, the market's attention will be mostly focused on this week's two key central bank meetings, namely the Fed on Wednesday and the BOJ on Thursday, although there is a full calendar of economic events also on deck.

Why This Friday's Payrolls Report Could See A Big Miss

When the main economic event this week hits this Friday at 8:30 am EDT, when the BLS releases the May payrolls report, Wall Street consensus wil be expecting a 160,000 print, a number which will have a big impact on market expectations for a Fed rate hike at the June or July FOMC meeting. However, consensus may be disappointed for one reason: the Verizon strike could chop off as much as 35,000 workers from the headline payrolls print.

Futures Fade Early Bounce, Slide In Illiquid Tape As Yen Rises, Oil Drops

Government bonds rose and the yen strengthened as investors weighed the timing of the Federal Reserve’s next increase in interest rates and the outlook for inflation. Commodities slid, led by metals, while stocks in Europe declined. Treasury 30-year yields fell for a third day. The yen rose from near this month’s low. Futures on the S&P 500 also declined after initially jumping higher in thinly traded, illiquid tape.

GoldCore's picture

Sell paper and digital gold, maybe but not physical gold coins and bars. Rather both physical gold and silver bullion should be owned as financial insurance and hedges against currency debasement, bail ins, systemic and counter party risks and the myriad other risks today.

Futures Rise As Fed Fears Subside; Global Stocks Rebound From Six Week Lows

It will be fitting, not to mention symmetric, if stocks which yesterday closed at 7 weeks lows and red for the year, end the week the same way they started it: with a rally on no news, just more hopes that oil (which as recently as two years ago none other than Chair Yellen said said would be be "unambiguously good" if lower) will continue rising. While US markets ended yesterday's trading on a sour note, that weakness has failed to spread to the rest of the world, and global shares rebounded from a six-week low as crude and commodity prices recovered, while the yen weakened on reduced demand for haven assets.

Philly Fed Flounders To 3-Month Lows As New Orders Tumble

March's epic - and utterly embarassing - spike is now nothing but an aberration as for the eight month of the last nine, Philly Fed's business outlook remains firmly in negative territory. With hope-strewn expectations of a +3.0 print, Philly Fed dropped from -1.6 to -1.8 with New Orders tumbling back into contraction. While the headline data dropped, "hope" was also dashed as 6-month expectations for inventories (not good for GDP) and employees (not good for Fed meme) tumbled.

Futures Fizzle After Oil Fades Bounce Above $48

It has been more of the same overnight, as global stocks piggybacked on the strong US close and rose despite the lack of good (or bad) macro news, propelled higher by the two usual suspects: a higher USDJPY and a even higher oil, if mostly early on in the trading session.

Key US Macro Events In The Coming Week

After last week's key event, the retail sales number, which the market discounted as being too unrealistic (and overly seasonally adjusted) after printing at a 13 month high and attempting to refute the reality observed by countless retailers, this week has a quiet start today with no data of note due out of Europe and just Empire manufacturing (which moments ago missed badly) and the NAHB housing market index of note in the US session this morning.

Waves Not Solid Cycles - Echoes Of 2008 Warrant Worries

The current rash of cautious ignorant optimism is so very reminiscent of the period right after Bear Stearns in 2008. Ben Bernanke as late as June 2008: "The risk that the economy has entered a substantial downturn appears to have diminished over the past month or so." Janet Yellen said, “the strong incoming data on spending eased my fears that we are in or are approaching a recession regime” before expressing confidence in rate hikes starting in December 2008! The mainstream takes the absence of further liquidation as if there will be no more liquidations when in fact the likelihood of more of them only rises the more they are artificially “contained.”

A Surprise From JPM: "Pundits Are Urging Investors To Chase Performance; We Believe This Would Be A Mistake"

"Equities had a meaningful rebound from the February lows, and we now find many who didn’t want to add at the time, are looking to enter the market at these levels. Indeed, pundits are urging investors to “chase performance”. We believe that this would be a mistake; complacency has crept into the market again, technicals appear overbought and the upturn in activity appears to be stalling."

"This Is Not A Good Time To Be In Business": Dallas Fed Disappoints, Contracts For 16th Straight Month

Following the death of Philly Fed's dead-cat-bounce, Dallas Fed did the same with a disappointing thud back to -13.9 (missing expectations of a rise to -10.0). This is the 16th consecutive month in contraction (below 0) and respondents are increasingly depressed, "it is a bad time for manufacturing, agriculture and mining - the only sectors that actually create wealth." What kind of fiction are these real average joes peddling? Have they not seen the jobs data?

US Manufacturing Plunges To 7 Year Lows As PMI "Dashes Hope That Q1 Weakness Was Temporary"

Following Japan's record low PMI, Europe's modest pick-up, and China's bounce, this week's Philly Fed crash was more indicative as US Manufacturing (flash) PMI printed 50.8 (from 51.5 in March and notably missing 52.0 expectations). This is the lowest print since September 2009 with New Orders sliding (weakest since Dec 2015), and Employment at its weakest since June 2013. As Markit notes, "US factories reported their worst month for just over six-and-a-half years in April, dashing hopes that first quarter weakness will prove temporary."

Philly Fed Dead-Cat-Bounce Dies, Plunges Back Into Contraction

Remember March and all those hopefull regional fed survey bounces? They are over! Philly Fed just printed -1.6, back into contraction for the 8th month of last 9, missing expectations of a +9.0 print. Every subcomponent weakened (aside from prices paid and received) but what saved the headline from further collapse was an unexpected surge in optimism for six-months ahead (right after the election?).