Gold supply and demand data published by all primary consultancy firms is incomplete and misleading. The data falsely presents gold to be more of a commodity than a currency, having caused deep misconceptions with respect to the metal’s trading characteristics and price formation.
It may come as a surprise to some that as the S&P500 has remained in a tight trading range over the past month, investors continued to withdraw substantial amounts of cash. According to the latest EPFR weekly data, global equities saw another $3.9bn in outflows, which brings the number of outflows to 5 in the past 6 weeks. Of note here is that while Europe has now suffered a record record 37 straight weeks of outflows, the US has been comparably pressured, with outflows in 6 of the past 7 weeks.
"We’ve been in the eye of the storm since then... and it’s a huge hurricane with a big eye... they’ve papered it over with trillion of currency units... Now, as we speak, we’re moving into the trailing edge and it’s going to be much worse, much longer lasting, and much different than the unpleasantness that we experienced back in 2008..."
Gold remains the asset Wall Street loves to hate. It is currently under pressure due to the recent increase in rate hike odds and there was definitely a need for stale long positions to be cleared out. When we see the mainstream gang up on gold so quickly though, we tend doubt that the bears will be correct. Of course we have no crystal ball either, but we remain convinced that the monetary experiments of recent years will end quite badly.
The price of 'real assets' (real estate, commodities, collectibles) relative to 'financial assets' (stocks & bonds) are at their lowest since 1926, and, as BofAML's Michael Hartnett suggests "buying humiliation and selling hubris" as investors are being forced to discount higher inflation and interest rates, as protectionism & redistribution themes are also aimed at boosting Main Street at the expense of Wall Street.
The chaos that will arise as trillions of dollars, yen, yuan and euros, etc. try to crowd through the fire exits as the asset bubbles pop will be monumental, and the spikes in small asset class prices as the hot money floods in will be equally monumental.