President Obama

Correlation is not causation; but coincidence means you're on the right path. Looking at the charts of Stocks, Commodities, and Precious Metals, we wonder just what it was that President Obama said at his 11amET White House meeting last Thursday...

Fresh from his humiliating defeat in the Senate to promote his pacifist gun-control agenda yesterday, in the name of the "90%" of course (who apparently need to pick their senatorial representative just a little more effectively), the Nobel Peace Prize winner has decided that guns just may be the right answer when it comes to promoting peace, or least his agenda abroad. WaPo reports that  the Obama administration has ordered additional U.S. troops to Jordan for possible chemical weapons control, humanitarian response or “stability operations” in Syria. "The new troops, a headquarters element of the 1st Armored Division based at Fort Bliss, Tex., will not greatly increase the number of U.S. forces in Jordan. About 150 troops were sent last year to help train Jordanian military and Syrian opposition forces. Some of those troops will remain, and the new arrivals will increase the total to more than 200."

Yesterday Sarin for Senators, now suspicious substances sent to Obama? CNN reports:

• LETTER WITH SUSPICIOUS SUBSTANCE WAS SENT TO OBAMA: CNN
• SECRET SERVICE: SUSPICIOUS LETTER TO OBAMA RECEIVED YESTERDAY
• CNN says letter was found at off-site mail-screening facility, substance is unknown, cites unidentified Secret Service officials.

It appears the "suspicious substance" was not a balanced budget, but sarin toxin instead, as the letter received in the Senate yesterday.

Suspicious letter addressed to Obama has tested positive for ricin (as did letter to Sen Roger Wicker (R-MS)

Our take home from all of this is that the USPS appears to still be in business. Amazing.

Disparities, bailouts, and a slow-motion blowup.

Manipulation and carefully crafted distortion erode trust, not just in the individuals employed to repeat the lies but in the institutions that issue them. The ruthless pursuit of self-interest is now the norm; truth is a terribly risky disruptor that must be hidden, masked or countered with plausible lies. There can be no trust if there is no truth. How can we trust people who lie to us constantly, who issue one self-serving justification after another for their own parasitic predation? We cannot. The premium in America has shifted from truth to self-serving distortion, and from trust to manipulation. This spiritual and moral rot will end gloriously, have no doubt, for the stock market's permanent ascendancy dissolves all other narratives.

Futures green? Check. Overnight ramp in either the EURUSD or USDJPY carry funding pair? Check? Lack of good economic news and plethora of economic misses? Check. In short, all the ingredients for continued New Normal record highs, driven only by the central bank liquidity tsunami are here. The weakness started with Australia's stunning unemployment jump overnight which saw a 36,100 drop in jobs on just 7,500 expected. A miss in Chinese auto sales was next, with 1.59MM cars sole in March, below the 1.596 expected, and even despite the surge in M2 and loan data, the Shanghai Composite closed down once again, dropping 0.29% to 2219.6. Nikkei continued its deranged liquidity-fueled ways, rising 1.96% even as Kuroda is starting to become quite concerned about the rapid move in the Yen, saying he "may adjust policy before the 2% target is reached if the economy and other indicators are growing rapidly." They aren't, and won't be, but if the Nikkei225 is confused for the economy, he just may push on the breaks which would send the only reason for the latest rally, the USDJPY tumbling. Finally, looking at Europe, Italy sold well less than the maximum €6 billion targeted in 2016, 2017 and 2028 bonds, which dented some of the enthusiasm for Italian paper although with Japanese money desperate to be parked somewhere, it will continue going into European and all other fixed income, distorting market signals for a long time. In short, expect the central-bank risk levitation to continue as all the deteriorating fundamentals and reality are ignored once more, and hopium and P/E multiple expansion are the only story in town.

It's all about the children... President Obama has just proposed a budget with a clear message from what we can tell:

*OBAMA BUDGET SEEKS TO TAX CARRIED INTEREST AS ORDINARY INCOME
*OBAMA BUDGET IMPOSES MARK-TO-MARKET TAXATION ON DERIVATIVES
*OBAMA BUDGET CAPS DEDUCTIONS FOR TOP EARNERS, RAISES ESTATE TAX

and while the budget lowers growth expectations for the US notably (from 2.7% to 2.3% for 2013, and from 3.5% to 3.2% in 2014), it assumes: *U.S. BUDGET SAYS HOUSING RECOVERING, AUTOS `AGAIN RESURGENT', and so, *OBAMA BUDGET SEES $51 BILLION GAIN FROM FANNIE MAE, FREDDIE MAC ... For the first time since 2000, the budget plans to collect 20% of GDP as revenue (compared to 16.9% this year). Winners and losers are...

• Germany: Europe's... poorest? ECB Survey Puts Southerners on Top in Household Wealth, Germans Near Bottom (WSJ)
• Obama Proposes $3.77 Trillion Budget to Revive Debt Talks (BBG)
• China trade data raise accuracy worries (FT) ... but generates so much laughter
• such as this... China Exports Miss Forecasts as ‘Absurd’ Data Probed (BBG)
• S. Korea Braces for ‘Very High’ Chance of North Missile Test (BBG)
• Slovenia, Spain Warned of ‘Excessive’ Economic Imbalances by EU (BBG)
• G8 foreign ministers meet in London to address Syria, North Korea (Reuters)
• N. Korea Threats Boost First South Korea Rate Cut Odds Since October (BBG)
• China Bird Flu Outbreak May Stem From Numerous Sources (BBG)
• Spain Bailout Less Likely on Lower Funding Costs: Moody’s (BBG)
• BOE’s Haldane: Simplify Bank Rules to Strengthen Them (WSJ)

The overtly inflationary policy stance of the FOMC is especially significant when you consider that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is no longer in control of monetary policy.

Even your data and conversations on its encrypted services that you thought were secure aren’t; at least not from 46 governments around the world.

Bernanke Entirely Fails to Answer Question

• Cypriot Bank Levy Is ‘Ominous’ for Bondholders, Barclays Says (BBG)
• Euro, Stocks Drops; Gold, German Bonds Rally on Cyprus (BBG)
• Total chaos:Cyprus tries to rework divisive bank tax (Reuters)
• More total chaos: Cyprus Prepares New Deposit-Tax Proposal (WSJ)
• Euro Slides Most in 14 Months on Cyprus Turmoil; Yen Strengthens (BBG)
• Osborne to admit fresh blow to debt target (FT)
• Even the Finns are giving up: Finnish Government May Relinquish Deficit Target to Boost Growth (BBG)
• Moody’s Sees Defaults as PBOC Warns on Local Risks (BBG)
• Australia Faces ‘Massive Hit’ to Government Revenue, Swan Says (BBG)
• Inside a Warier Fed, Watch the New Guy (Hilsenrath)
• Obama to Tap Perez for Labor Secretary (WSJ) - and with that the "minorities" quota is full
• Finally, this should be good: BuzzFeed to Launch Business Section (WSJ)

Obama Is Worse than Bush In Favoring the Super-Elite, Bailing Out the Big Banks, Protecting Financial Criminals, Targeting Whistleblowers, Keeping Government Secrets, Trampling Our Liberties and Starting Military Conflicts In New Countries

Five-year plans in the Land of the Free? Apparently it’s not that far off from reality. Yesterday Senator Tom Harkin introduced S. 544, “a bill to require the President to develop a comprehensive national manufacturing strategy.” In effect, Senator Harkin wants the President to centrally plan the economy. Never mind that the President has zero experience in business or manufacturing. But hey, this worked out so well for Stalinist Russia, it’s no wonder Mr. Harkin wants to copy that model... The trend is clear. Every single day the political elite gives us even more evidence that they’re working overtime to destroy the economy and what few remaining civil liberties still exist.

The long-awaited tell-all is coming soon to an ebook near you soon - well in 2014. AP reports that none other than 'Turbo' Tim Geithner has an agreement with Crown Publishers (Random House) to publish his 'behind-the-scenes' account of the financial crisis. From his tenure at the NYFRB to his stint under Obama's wing, we can't wait for all the gossip - ...and then I said, "yes sir, whatever you want sir..." As Crown adds in its PR, "Secretary Geithner will chronicle how decisions were made during the most harrowing moments of the crisis, when policy makers faced a fog of uncertainty, risked catastrophic outcomes, and had no institutional memory or recent precedent to guide them." Should be a thriller... as he answers the all-important question of why (or not) but rest comfortably as he intends to "provide a 'playbook' that future policy makers can draw on." Given the success of Obama's odyssey, we humbly suggest Tim title the as-yet-untitled book, 'The Oddacity Of Hype'.