President Obama

• Global share market settles after stormy start to year (Reuters)
• Stocks Extend Losses as Yen, Gold Rise on Lingering China Unease (BBG)
• China battles to shore up stocks, yuan after globe-shaking slide (Reuters)
• Volkswagen faces billions in penalties as U.S. sues for environment violations (Reuters)
• Obama tightens gun rules, requires more background checks (Reuters)

It doesn’t matter what the issue is - whether it’s a rancher standing his ground over grazing rights, a minister jailed for holding a Bible study in his own home, or a community outraged over police shootings of unarmed citizens - these are the building blocks of a political powder keg. Much like the heated protests that arose after the police shootings in Ferguson and Baltimore, there’s a subtext to the Oregon incident that must not be ignored, and it is simply this: America is a pressure cooker with no steam valve, and things are about to blow. Now all that remains is a spark, and it need not be a very big one, to set the whole powder keg aflame.

The chart below, showing the total number of monthly FBI Firearm background checks - a direct proxy for gun purchases in the U.S., needs no commentary.

“Play it again. I love the feel of it"...

It would appear the people of Switzerland have been listening to their military leaders. Having recently been warned by the Swiss army chief of growing social unrest, SwissInfo reports applications for gun permits in Switzerland increased by 20% between 2014 and 2015, according to a survey conducted in 12 cantons. But while the army proposes "arm yourselves," Swiss crime prevention officials warn against the false sense of security that guns bring. And while the Swiss go about their legal business of arming themselves, President Obama is preparing to unleash another weapon - the executive order - to enact gun-control legislation.

In 2015, the iron fist of power clamped down on humanity, from warfare to terrorism to surveillance, police brutality, and corporate hegemony. The environment was repeatedly decimated, the health of citizens was constantly put at risk, and the justice system and media alike were perverted to serve the interests of the powers that be. However, while 2015 was discouraging for more reasons than most of us can count, many of the year’s most underreported stories evidence not only a widespread pattern that explicitly reveals the nature of power, but pushback from human beings worldwide on a path toward a better world.

Some have called Cass Sunstein "America's Goebbels" since he sugggested that the government "formally hire credible private parties to engage in counterspeech," and was engaged by President Obama as 'Information Tzar'. So today's op-ed from the government's propagandist-in-chief, condemning those who choose to push back against political correctness, should be read with a Bernaysian perspective as Sunstein attempts to delegitimize any and every effort to argue against the government's view of the world.

Operating largely out of public view - in tax court, through arcane legislative provisions and in private negotiations with the Internal Revenue Service - the wealthy have used their influence to steadily whittle away at the government’s ability to tax them. The effect has been to create a kind of private tax system, catering to only several thousand Americans. This is precisely what Obama will be remembered for by history, bailing out and protecting the 0.01%, at the expense of everyone else.

Thanks to the deep digging from Judicial Watch, we now know that President Obama's Christmas 2013 vacation to Hawaii cost taxpayers a handy $8.1 million. The itinerary, we are sure, was very similar to this year's golfing (and shave ice) extravaganza, which explains why, the known total expense to the American taxpayers thus far for all Obama travel is now $70,880,035.78. Well, it's only fair right?

At this point in time, nuclear war can only be avoided in two ways. One way is for Russia and China to surrender and accept Washington’s hegemony. The other way is for an independent leader in Germany, the UK, or France to rise to office and withdraw from NATO. That would begin a stampede to leave NATO, which is Washington’s prime tool for causing conflict with Russia and, thereby, is the most dangerous force on earth to every European country and to the entire world. If NATO continues to exist, NATO together with the neoconservative ideology of American hegemony will make nuclear war inevitable.

According to a new poll, Americans today see their country as losing the battle against terror despite having the most powerful military in the world. Apparently only 2 in 10 Americans think the U.S. is winning the war on terror, and see the ISIS Islamic State as holding the upper hand. Who says the terrorists aren’t winning against our freedoms?

The $1.15 trillion spending bill passed by Congress last Friday and quickly signed by President Obama is just the latest triumph in the plutocratic management of politics that has accelerated since 9/11...proof that Washington can work. Mainstream media didn’t stop to ask: “Yes, but work for whom?” Instead, the anchors acted as amplifiers for official spin - repeating the mantra-of-the-hour that while this is not “a perfect bill,” it does a lot of good things. “But for whom? At what price?” went unasked. Secrecy today. Secrecy tomorrow. Secrecy forever. They are determined that we not know who owns them.

My overriding theme and the central drama for the coming year is that unexpected events can take on greater importance as the Federal Reserve ends its near-decade-long Zero Interest Rate Policy. Consensus premises and forecasts will likely fall flat, in a rather spectacular manner. The low-conviction and directionless market that we saw in 2015 could become a no-conviction and very-much-directed market (i.e. one that's directed lower) in 2016. There will be no peace on earth in 2016, and our markets could lose a cushion of protection as valuations contract. (Just as "malinvestment" represented a key theme this year, we expect a compression of price-to-earnings ratios to serve as a big market driver in 2016.) In other words, we don't think 2016 will be fun.