Once again, US equity futures are roughly unchanged (while Treasurys have seen a surprising overnight bid coming out of Asia) ahead of an avalanche of macroeconomic news both in Europe, where the ECB will deliver its monthly message, and in the US where we will shortly get jobless claims, ISM non-manufacturing, trade balance, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, average earnings, Markit U.S. composite PMI, Markit U.S. services PMI due later. Of course the most important number is the June NFP payrolls and to a lesser extent the unemployment rate, which consensus expects at 215K and 6.3%, although the whisper number is about 30K higher following yesterday's massive ADP outlier. Nonetheless, keep in mind that a) ADP is a horrible predictor of NFP, with a 40K average absolute error rate and b) in December the initial ADP print was 151K higher than the nonfarms. Those watching inflation will be far more focused on hourly earnings, expected to rise 0.2% M/M and 1.9% Y/Y. Should wages continue to stagnate and decline on a real basis, expect to hear the "stagflation" word much more often in the coming weeks.
- France's Sarkozy faces corruption probe in blow to comeback hopes (Reuters)
- Ukraine Says Military Offensive Against Rebels Yielding Results (WSJ)
- JPMorgan Investors Show Support for Dimon in Cancer Fight (BBG)
- World’s ATM Moves to Frankfurt as Yellen’s Fed Slows Cash (BBG)
- Argentina Seen Backtracking on Fernandez Vows as Legacy at Risk (BBG)
- Palestinian teen killed in possible revenge attack (Reuters)
- The Bill and Hillary Clinton Money Machine Taps Corporate Cash (WSJ)
- London House Prices Surge the Most Since 1987, Nationwide Says (BBG)
- Last Jew in Afghanistan faces ruin as kebabs fail to sell (Reuters)
It appears the faithful are losing belief... Gallup reports that Democrats economic confidence has faded to its lowest since January (less than half the levels of confidence when President Obama unleashed his 2nd term). Despite exuberance conference board (government sponsored) surveys of confidence (and seasonally adjusted happiness in PMIs and ISMs), Gallup notes U.S. Economic Confidence Index remained flat in June having hovered at this lower level for most of the year (with no post-weather rebound). The outlook also remains dismal - hovering at its lowest since Dec 2013 with only 39% of Americans saying the economy is getting better and 56% saying it is getting worse.
It's been a busy day for President Obama and he needs a win... a bright shiny PR moment, surrounded with immigrant children explaining how he is the Pied Piper that will save them all from the despotic servitude they come from. In an unplanned press conference President Obama will address his immigration reform at 1450ET through executive action. No lesser man than Cantor-buster Dave Brat opined that the President's policies "sound nice", like "the Kids’ Act, the DREAM Act, the ENLIST Act," but did little to address the growing influx of children. “The reason we have those thousands crossing the border is because of poor policy in the first place,” Brat added. We are sure Obama disagrees - besides, this has to be good for GDP, right? - The Broken Border Fallacy.
There are some out there in the economic world that believe that banknotes are detrimental to the health of the economy and that they are currently stifling the recovery of the markets. Their solution: burn the damn things and let them go up in smoke. Replace them with electronic money and then the central banks around the world will be able to do more than just providing alternatives that don’t work to revamping the financial markets and boosting economic growth.
Having had his omnipotence chipped away at last week, President Obama has - seemingly - been pushed too far by the Supreme Court's decision on contraception and Obamacare this morning: The White House stated...
SUPREME COURT DECISION ON CONTRACEPTION COVERAGE JEOPARDIZES HEALTH OF WOMEN EMPLOYED BY THESE COMPANIES
WILL WORK WITH CONGRESS TO MAKE SURE WOMEN AFFECTED BY RULING WILL HAVE SAME ACCESS TO CONTRACEPTION
WILL CONSIDER WHETHER PRESIDENT CAN ACT ON HIS OWN TO MITIGATE EFFECT OF SUPREME COURT RULING
Totalitarian? You decide... One wonders if the phrase "do you know who I am?" was uttered this morning?
The economy must be doing great, right? The market's at all-time highs... We suspect President Obama will 'brush off' the Q1 GDP collapse and focus his 'remarks on the US economy' on how well America is doing; how exceptional it's growth is'; and how any minute now it's going to the moon alice (and not just the Fed balance sheet). And just a reminder, the last time Obama spoke aggressively on 'fixing' inequality, stocks were not happy. Remember, the greatest irony of it all...
Not like there is much to discuss but President Obama is hosting a Town Hall meeting in Minneapolis where "the people" will be allowed to ask questions of his 'little-less-than-omnipotent' self. As he said in his introduction...he's feeling loose and will "make it up as he goes along."
"Today's SCOTUS decision is encouraging for all who believe in the checks and balances enshrined in our nation's constitution," is Darrell Issa's message following the Supreme Court's unanimous (9-0) decision cutting back the power of the White House to temporarily fill senior government posts when facing partisan opposition in Congress. The White House spokesman said President Obama was "deeply disappointed" and is 'reviewing' the decision. Simply put, President Obama used the recess appointment power to make an end run around a Senate that refused to confirm controversial nominees - thanks to this unanimous SCOTUS decision, that use of the power is all but dead.
It has been a while since Obama and Putin held one of their signature phone conversations purely for public theater and photo-op purposes. Moments ago, we learned that following weeks of silence, the world leaders had spoken earlier today, when first the Kremlin, the the White House, released details of the just conducted phone conversation.Topics discussed: Ukraine, Iraq, Syria. Also on the docket: the usual threats by Obama in the form of "costs." No comment on today's disastrous performance by John Kerry in Egypt. Probably better that way.
Iraq Update: Air Force Runs Out Of Missiles, ISIS Controls The Border; Shiite Clerics Threaten US TroopsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 06/22/2014 19:07 -0400
Now that the Iraq proxy war scene is set, and as we reported on Friday, Prime Minister Maliki has become a pawn in yet another middle-east war between the west and the petrodollar (with both Saudi Arabia and the US making it clear Maliki has to go) and Russia (with Putin expressing his full support for the prime minister), events will likely unfold at an even faster pace. Sure enough, even this otherwise quiet weekend, in which the world is supposed to put wars on the backburner and focus on the world cup, is chock-full of Iraq news upates. Let's begin.
In a video leaked by someone who happened to be working out at the same hotel gym as President Obama, the world got a peak into the exercise routine of the most powerful man on earth. The President is surrounded by some of the best and smartest advisors in the country, but apparently none of them is a personal trainer, as his approach and technique leave a lot to be desired. But he is in luck, we're here to help...
While President Obama proclaimed "it is not the place for the United States to choose Iraq’s leaders," it appears that Iraq's current prime minister Maliki's days are numbered. At least three people, who like Mr. Maliki are all members of the Shiite majority, have emerged as possible candidates to take over, but as NY Times makes clear, they face an uphill battle as any prospective successor must convince Iraq’s Sunni Muslims and its ethnic Kurds that he can hold Iraq together, as well as vanquish a Sunni-led insurgency. The Sunnis are adamant that change is needed, "we will not allow a third term for the prime minister; they must change him if they want things to calm down," but it is the statement from the top Shiite cleric that it is time for a new government that likely put the final nail in Maliki's coffin. The only problem... his replacements are far from angelic reformers.
Moments ago, president Obama announced what was informally known for days but only today was officially disclose to the public: namely that he’s sending up to 300 American troops to Iraq in the wake of escalating chaos in that nation. Actually: correction, make that "military advisors." Please don't call them troops because otherwise the US public may realize that Obama has just become only the third president in as many decades to launch his own private Iraq war. As Politico succinctly summarizes, "It’s a politically uncomfortable move for a president who won election in large part due to his opposition to the Iraq War and who has touted the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from Iraq in 2011 as one of the key achievements of his presidency."
UPDATE: Delayed Until 1315ET
"Boots on the ground" or no boots-on-the-ground? Airstrikes or no airstrikes? Maliki "in" or "out"? ISIS Sanctions? Red lines? YouTube clips? President Obama has his hands full dealing with this self-created SNAFU... but we are sure this press conference will clear it all up (likely as Yellen noted yesterday, it's just "noise")...