President Obama

Now that Edward Snowden has been granted temporary asylum in Russia and he has been allowed to leave the airport, things are starting to hot up between the US and Russia. 

The bottom line is that Americans are losing more and more of their medical freedom.  By 2015, so many workers will be trapped in the government-run health insurance exchanges that there will be no going back to the private plans we have today. At this rate, single-payer proponents will drive private insurance companies out of business, which has been their intention all along. Obamacare is a hodgepodge of new regulations, requirements, and penalties. Here are the ten most important points that doctors should tell their patients.

The ancient question: how do you extract some moolah while you still can?

On 6 July, a Montreal, Maine & Atlantic train carrying 72 tank cars filled with oil exploded after its brakes apparently failed, sending it rolling into the small Quebec town of Lac-Megantic, where it derailed and then exploded. In the conflagration that followed, an estimated 47 people were killed. Whether Canadians like it or not, the use of such trains has soared in recent years. Now, in a breathtaking display of chutzpah, the Canadian ambassador to the U.S. is warning President Obama if he does not approve the controversial Keystone XL pipeline, then he can expect similar oil trains and even trucks to enter the U.S..

Problem ... What Problem?

Amid the glory of an Amazon fulfillment center (better known in spoken English as "warehouse") in Chattanooga, President Obama will unveil another hour-long reprise of the same tired anecdotes, finger-pointing, blame everyone else, things are great but things are tough new deal plan for the middle class in America. We can't wait to see the select few chosen to represent this broad-swathe of the US citizenry and sit in praise of the leader.

• "Ooops": Barclays reveals £12.8bn balance sheet hole (FT), Barclays Bows to Pressure With Share Sale (WSJ)
• Bank of Italy Inspecting Top Lenders' Books (WSJ)
• Obama to propose 'grand bargain' on corporate tax rate, infrastructure (Reuters)
• China injects funds into money markets, quelling fears (FT)
• Berlusconi faces verdict that could endanger Italian government (Reuters)
• Shale Threatens Saudi Economy, Warns Prince Alwaleed (WSJ)
• Qatar Finds Revolution Abroad Not as Easy as Stock Picks (BBG)
• Cities Begin Hiring Again (WSJ) - not to mention filing for bankruptcy
• Big Question Hangs Over Small-Caps (WSJ)
• China Politburo Pledges to Press On With Restructuring Economy (BBG)
• Bank Revenues Surge on Trading Over What Fed Will Do (BBG)

With the case for the next Fed chairman having devolved to the most ridiculous of decision trees, such as Nancy Pelosi's "it would be great to have a woman", because apparently gender diversity trumps everything in the eyes of the California democrat, the choice of Bernanke's successor is now more nebulous than ever. It has certainly not been aided by the periodic floating of the Larry Summers trial balloon, especially as originating from the Fed's WSJ mouthpiece who one week presents Summers as the favorite and the next skewers his chances. However, one person for whom the Summers vote is essentially a done deal with 90% odds, is Scotiabank's Guy Haselmann. Here is his logic.

• More Doctors Steer Clear of Medicare (WSJ)
• Syrian Looters in Bulldozers Seek Treasure Amid Chaos (BBG)
• Siemens CEO Peter Löscher Is Set to Leave His Post After Series of Earnings Misses (WSJ)
• Silver Vault for 200 Tons Starts in Singapore as Wealthy Buy (BBG)
• Omincom and Publicis merger shows that advertising is now firmly in the business of Big Data: collecting and selling the personal information of millions of consumers (NYT)
• Apple supplier accused of labour violations (FT)
• 'BarCap was the Wild Wild West – that’s what we called it’ (Telegraph)
• P&G chief seizes opportunity in era of three-day stubble (FT)
• Federal Reserve 'Doves' Beat 'Hawks' in Economic Prognosticating (WSJ) - LOL: Fed "hawks"

Hopes that Kuroda would say something substantial, material and beneficial to the "three arrow" wealth effect (about Japan's sales tax) last night were promptly dashed when the BOJ head came, spoke, and went, with the USDJPY sliding to a new monthly low, which in turn saw the Nikkei tumble another nearly 500 points. China didn't help either, where the Shanghai Composite also closed below 2000 wiping out a few weeks of gains on artificial hopes that the PBOC would step in with a bailout package, as attention turned to the reported announcement that an update of local government debt could double the size of China's non-performing loans, and what's worse, that the PBOC was ok with that. Asian negativity was offset by the European open, where fundamentals are irrelevant (especially on the one year anniversary of Draghi FX Advisors LLC "whatever it takes to buy the EURUSD" speech) and renewed M&A sentiment buoyed algos to generate enough buying momentum to send more momentum algos buying and so on. As for the US, futures are indicating weakness for the third day in a row but hardly anyone is fooled following two consecutive days of green closes on melt ups "from the lows": expect another rerun of the now traditional Friday ramp, where a 150 DJIA loss was wiped out during the day for a pre-programmed just green closing print.

• The Citadel-SAC connection (BBG) - just wait until the Citadel-FRBNY connection emerges
• Letter backs Yellen for Federal Reserve role (FT) - or said otherwise, the Democrats would like the Fed to rule (and monetize deficits) for ever
• Obama, Republicans gear up for bruising U.S. budget fight (Reuters)
• Up for Debate at Fed: A Sharper Easy-Money Message (WSJ)
• UBS to Pay $885 Million to Settle U.S. Mortgage Suit (BBG), Banks shiver as UBS swallows $885 million U.S. fine (Reuters)
• Japan finmin Aso: CPI shows gradual shift to inflation from deflation (Reuters)
• Japan's PM calls for high-level talks with China (Reuters)
• Holder Targets Texas in New Voting-Rights Push (WSJ)
• Another Nightmareliner incident: Probe opened as Air India Boeing Dreamliner oven overheats midair (Reuters)
• Samsung Boosts Capital Spending as High-End Phone Demand Slows (BBG)

At precisely 4 am Eastern two opposite things happened: the German IFO Business Climate for July printed at a better than expected 106.2 vs 105.9 in June and higher than the 106.1 consensus: news which would have been EURUSD positive. And yet the EUR tumbled. Why? Because at the same time the ECB provided an update to the chart that "keeps Mario Draghi up at night" as we reminded readers yesterday - the ECB's all important credit creation update in the form of the M3, which not only missed expectations (of +3%) but declined from 2.9% to 2.3%. But more importantly, ECB lending to private sector shrank for the 14th consecutive month in June, and slid to a new record low 1.6% in June, down from a 1.1% in May.

With his report cards firmly in the 'failing' category, President Obama begins his own 'New Deal' path. Starting with today's speech at Knox College (scheduled to begin at 1255ET), Obama will unveil his grand plan for "A Better Bargain for the Middle Class." Explaining what it means to be 'middle-class in America' (who are ranked 27th in the world), he notes "the success of our economy has always depende not just on the size of our GDP, but on the reach of our prosperity." Sounds to us like some more wealth transfer is on its way. As long as Bernanke can keep elevating stock prices then the wealthy can afford to vig a few points off to the plebians to keep the social unrest at bay.

As the President prepares to address Congress (and the nation) with his next new new 'better bargain' deal to secure the economic future for the US, we thought it appropriate to dust off the economic scorecard for how things are going under his old new deal. Obviously, the President of the United States is not really solely responsible for where we are economically. The condemnation, or praise, must be applied equally to all branches of government responsible for the fiscal and monetary policy decisions made. The problems that exist today were not due to just the last few years of excess but rather come as a result of more than 30 years of fiscal irresponsibility that spans both Republican and Democratic Administrations alike. However, since President Obama has taken the position of responsibility for "clearing away the rubble and getting us back to where we were", we can review the economic data to see whether, or not, this is indeed the case.

"One thing he apparently for sure doesn’t talk about is retirement."