While markets remain relatively subdued ahead of tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report, after several days of losses in US stocks which pushed the S&P500 to three week lows, overnight markets ignored the latest weak data out of China where the Caixin Services PMI was the latest indicator to disappoint (dropping from 52.2 to 51.8), and instead focused on crude, which rebounded from yesterday's post inventory-build lows and briefly printed above $45/bbl over uncertainty related to the impact of Canada wildfires on production and how long will last. The bounce in WTI has meant Brent briefly traded at parity with West Texas for the first time in 6 weeks.
The dollar's gyrations remain a key source of inspiration for traders with the fundamental focus continuing to switch between falling US and rising OPEC production, according to Saxo Bank's Ole Hanson. Having seen calendar 2017 almost hit $50 last week the realisation that further upside may be hard to achieve may has helped trigger increased demand for protection.
The days of JP Morgan controlling the silver market may be numbered as a new player in the silver market has arrived. For the past several years, JP Morgan held the most silver on a public exchange in the world. While the LBMA may hold (or did hold) more silver, their stockpiles are not made public. Regardless, JP Morgan held the most silver at nearly 74 million oz (Moz) in its warehouse, up until recently...
Enter the Dragon. The silver bullion market has a key new player - China. The Shanghai Futures Exchange in China is replacing JP Morgan bank and its clients as the most significant new source of demand according to a very interesting blog with some great charts and tables published by SRSrocco Report yesterday.
Crude oil time-spreads have completely dislocated from inventories. Historically, such dislocations have proved to be short lived. We expect that either spot prices will sell-off again or the back end of the curve will move sharply higher.We estimate that in order for time-spreads to move back in line with inventories, either front end prices have to sell off by USD10-15/bbl or the back end has to appreciate USD15-20/bbl. Given the parameters of our gold pricing model, the latter would imply roughly a USD100-150/oz rise in the gold price.
Overnight Australia finally admitted it has succumbed to the global economic weakness plaguing the rest of the world when in a "surprise" move, Australia’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time in a year to a record low and left the door open for further easing to counter a wave of disinflation that’s swept over the developed world. The move sent the local currency tumbling and local stocks climbing. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens and his board lowered the cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.75 percent Tuesday, a move predicted by just 12 of 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The announcement has, not surprisingly unleashed havoc across FX markets and broadly pushed global mood into its latest "risk off" phase.
Despite a trillion dollars of credit spewed into the Chinese 'economy' speculative finance channels, Manufacturing remains in a slump as April's China PMI tumbled to 49.4 after a brief bounce back up to 49.8 (from the 48.0 low in Feb). This is the 14th month in a row of contraction. As Caixin reports, relatively weak market conditions and muted client demand contributed to a further solid decline in staff numbers, which seems to put a nail in the coffin of anyone who believes recent price action in industrial commodities is anything but speculative fervor.
"There is little doubt in our minds that $/JPY will keep falling in the near term, until Governor Kuroda is forced to respond with overwhelming force. We therefore hold to our structural view that $/JPY ultimately will go a lot higher. But in the short term, it will fall.... Until Governor Kuroda is willing to grab the bulls by the horns and confront market fears over the BoJ’s balance sheet, the path of least resistance for $/JPY is down"
“If the weather forecast suggests it might rain, wouldn’t you carry an umbrella?”
Probably the biggest misconception investors have about gold is that it's an investment. They'll listen to people on CNBC pick apart and analyze every $30 move in the metal, just as they would talk about a move in crude oil or stocks or bonds. They'll check the price quote every day... to see how their "investment" in gold is performing. That just isn't a useful way to view gold. Gold isn't an investment. Gold is money. Gold is real wealth you can hold in your hand, it's also "crisis insurance"... or "wealth insurance."
"We exist, beyond any shadow of any doubt, in an environment of absolute fakery where nothing is real... All of this is being played in a way to keep people believing, once again, that the system is working and will continue to work."
Following yesterday's Yen surge in the aftermath of the disappointing BOJ announcement, the pain for USDJPY long continued, with the key carry pair tumbling as low as 106, the lowest level since October 2014 before stabilizing around 107, and is now headed for its biggest weekly gain since 2008, which in turn has pushed the US dollar to to its lowest close in almost a year as signs of slowing growth in the U.S. dimmed prospects for a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase. As a result, global stocks fell and commodities extended gains in their best month since 2010.
Even if keeping policy unchanged might once have been the correct decision, it’s not now. The failure to deliver, especially after Governor Kuroda’s comments about currency appreciation had driven hopes for further easing so high, is terrible news for the Japanese economy. Not to mention a further blow to the BOJ’s credibility. The immediate surge in the yen and the panicked sell-off in equities were the most obvious examples of trader disappointment. And the currency’s rally will put further downward pressure on both growth and inflation.
Less than one week after the BOJ floated a trial balloon using Bloomberg, that it would reduce the rate it charged some banks which set off the biggest USDJPY rally since October 2014, we are back where we started following last night's "completely unexpected" (for everyone else: we wrote "What If The BOJ Disappoints Tonight: How To Trade It" hours before said "shock") shocking announcement out of the BOJ which did absolutely... nothing. "It’s a total shock,” Nader Naeimi, Sydney- based head of dynamic markets at AMP Capital Investors told Bloomberg. "From currencies to equities to everything -- you can see the reaction in the markets. I can’t believe this. It’s very disappointing."
A favorite question during the bear market was: what will it take to bring mining back to life?