Price Action

All Eyes On Yellen After US Futures, Euro Stocks Rebound On Latest French Polls

World stocks pulled back from all time highs, and European bourses initially followed U.S. futures and Asian shares lower, however both European risk sentiment as well as E-Minis rebounded after an Odoxa poll showed Macron overtaking Le Pen in the 1st round for the first time, and that the addition of Juppe instead of Fillon may see a 2nd round run-off between Macron vs Juppe, leading to a slump in Bund futures to session lows, and a bounce in European stocks.

Global Stocks, US Futures Surge, Bonds Tumble On "Presidential" Trump Speech, Hawkish Fed Speakers

The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields jumped on Wednesday, while global stocks and S&P futures rose as investors gave generally favorable marks to President Donald Trump's first speech to Congress, while paying more attention to the sudden onslaught of Fed hawks who repriced March Fed hike odds from 50% to 80% in a single afternoon. Strong economic data from China and Europe helped propell global risk assets higher.

With All Eyes On Trump Tonight, US Futures, Global Stocks Hug The Flatline

With traders focused on President Trump's address to Congress tonight where he is expected to outline his economic priorities and provide plan details, European stocks are little changed for a second day and Asian stocks decline modestly as U.S. futures trade around the flatline. Oil declines, while the dollar is little changed.

Charts Of The Week: 10 Reasons To Be Cautious In This Market

"First, 'record levels' of anything are records for a reason. It is where the point where previous limits were reached. Therefore, when a ‘record level’ is reached, it is not the beginning, but rather an indication of the maturity of a cycle. While the media has focused on employment, record stock market levels, etc. as a sign of an ongoing economic recovery, history suggests caution."

European Rally Fizzles, S&P Futures Turn Red As USDJPY Slides, Bunds Strongly Bid

What started off in familiar fashion, with Asian stocks rising, and Europe hitting multi-month highs and US futures in record territory has stumbled in recent minutes following a continued rush for safety in short-dated German Bunds (the 2Y is now trading at -0.92%) and ongoing selling in the USDJPY, which has pushed Stoxx 600 back to unchanged, and S&P futures to modestly red for the session.

US Futures, European Stocks Rise Despite HSBC Plunge; Dollar, Oil Jump

European stocks rose again with S&P futures higher, while Asian stocks were mixed. The dollar rose jumped on hawkish comments by Philly Fed's Harker, oil rose following optimistic OPEC comments, while gold dropped. Markets have largely ignored results by financial heavyweight HSBC, which posted its largest fall since mid-2015 after reporting a 62% plunge in pretax profit.

Here Is The "Catalyst" For The Market's Inexplicable Surge: A $17 Billion Trade Gone Wrong

"I’m worried that this stock ‘melt-up’ move is extraordinarily mechanical right now - almost entirely the aforementioned forced-covering, not high conviction induced-buying - and may be sending a 'false signal' which is potentially dragging-in new buying on the breakout to new highs.  This could lead to a scenario where a market can 'collapse under their own weight'."

Monetary Metals's picture

This week, the prices of the metals moved up on Monday. Then the gold price went sideways for the rest of the week, but the silver price jumped on Friday. We see a higher price of gold along with greater scarcity (i.e. cobasis, the red line), which means the price of gold is being pushed up by buyers of physical metal, not by buyers of futures (which would push up the basis, and reduce scarcity). In silver, the story is a bit less compelling. The scarcity of the metal is holding (not increasing), as the price rises. This implies there is some good demand for physical, and the price action had futures market assistance.