Price Action

Global Bond Selloff Resumes; Stocks Rise Following Strong Chinese Data

With October, the worst month for stocks since January, now in the history books S&P futures are eager to telegraph that the streak of five consecutive will end, with a modest gain of 0.3% in overnight trading, coupled with mixed global markets as the global bond selloff returned after strong Chinese economic data prompted concerns about rising global inflation.

Market Trapped As Recession Risk Rises

With the ongoing political circus, weak corporate earnings (considering the massive reductions in expectations since the beginning of the year), Apple and Amazon both missing expectations (which really goes to the heart of the consumer), and consumer sentiment waning, it is surprising the markets are still holding up as well as they are. As long as the markets can maintain support about 2125, the bull market is still in play, but at this point, not by much.

US Futures, Global Stocks, Metals Rise On Economic Confidence, Upbeat Earnings

European, Asian stocks and S&P futures are all up again in early trading, a repeat of the Monday session, buoyed by a generally upbeat corporate earnings season, rising economic confidence and signs of improvement in the world’s biggest economies. After Charles Evans' hawkish comments on Monday, the market is now pricing in a 71% chance of a rate increase this year, up from 68% last week.

Futures Drop As ECB Confusion Persists, Dollar Rises To Seven Month High; Yuan Plunges

Asian stocks and S&P futures fall modestly and European shares are little changed as traders digested the surprising reticence from yesterday's ECB meeting. The dollar jumped to 7 month highs, pressuring EM currencies and pushing the euro to its weakest level since March and below the Brexit lows, after Mario Draghi shut down talk of tapering, while the Yuan dropped to the lowest since 2010.

WTI Surges Above $51 After Unexpected Crude Inventory Draw

Seasonally, expectations are for continued builds in inventories (following last week's biggest build in 6 months) but API reported a massive 3.8mm drawdown (against 2.1mm build expectations) sending WTI prices soaring. Distillates also saw a notable draw as Gasoline built modestly. Cushing saw the biggest draw since Feb 2014.

Can The Market Hang On To Support Here?

It is critical for the markets to “hang on” to current support at the previous breakout highs. A failure to do so will put the markets back into the previous trading range that has existed going back to 2014.

Global Stocks Rebound As Fed Fears Ease, Dollar Falls From 7 Month High

If yesterday's session was marked by concerns about Fed tightening and rising long-end rates, today concerns about a hawkish Fed have subsided, with European, Asian stocks and S&P futures all rising amid speculation Federal Reserve policy will remain accommodative after yesterday's dovish comments by Fed vice-Chair Stan Fischer, as well as weak economic data helped push the US Dollar off its 7 month highs.

Everyone Has A Plan... And No One Has A Clue

Failure has been rescued from the jaws of success. An opportunity to provide a major sentiment boost has been spurned in favor of continuing confusion. Sadly, investors must persist in keeping at least one nervous eye fully focused on an unpredictable and incoherent Fed. It’s the real economy that misses out.

Past Is Prologue: New Secular Bull Or A Repeat Of The 70s

Despite much hope that the current breakout of the markets is the beginning of a new secular “bull” market – the economic and fundamental variables suggest otherwise. Valuations and sentiment are at very elevated levels which are the opposite of what has been seen previously. Interest rates, inflation, wages and savings rates are all at historically low levels which are normally seen at the end of secular bull market periods, not the beginning of one.