Price Action

"It's All A Short Squeeze" - Goldman Expects A 20% Drop Before Markets Can Rally

For those wondering whether we’ll be riding the short squeeze euphoria wave higher, Goldman’s answer is definitively “no.” In a note out this morning, the bank says short covering and positioning have fueled the bounce and that a sustained rebound is exceptionally unlikely until either valuations get significantly more attractive or inflation expectations stabilize.

The Selling Is Back: S&P Futures Tumble Below 1,900; Sterling Crashes, Gold Soars

On Monday, everyone was giddy that the rally is back on. Less than two days later, the dour fatalism of some HFT algo stop hunting price action and a few comments by the Saudi oil minister, and the markets have remember than nothing has changed and that nothing has been fixed. But at least the biggest shorts squeeze in 5 years is finally over.

Goldman Asks: "What Should We Make Of The Growing Link Between Oil And EM Currencies?"

"Recent fluctuations in the oil price appear to be driven by supply shifts specific to the oil market, not shifts in demand that can be used to make meaningful inferences about the health of the global economy [and] while fluctuations in the oil price, whatever their cause, are likely to affect oil currencies such as the RUB, MXN and COP, it is less clear why supply-driven fluctuations in the oil price would drive other EM currencies, including those of oil importers like INR."

One Trader Explains Why He Did Not Chase Yesterday's Buying Panic

What kept me from totally losing my heart was, yet again, the bond market. If animal spirits are alive, and the underlying fundamentals improving, how come bond yields are struggling to make even a dead-cat bounce?... It’s not just liquid and illiquid, but house money and rent money. Equities clearly fall into the former camp: chasing the latest news without caution. Bonds on the other hand are ignoring today’s emotions and asking what has fundamentally changed. And the answer they’ve settled on is "nothing"

Biggest Short Squeeze In 7 Years Continues After Bullard Hints At More QE, OECD Cuts Global Forecasts

Just when traders thought that the biggest and most violent 3-day short squeeze in 7 years was about to end a squeeze that has resulted in 3 consecutve 1%+ sessions for the S&P for the first time since October 2011, overnight we got one of the Fed's biggest faux-hakws, St. Louis Fed's Jim Bullard, who said that it would be "unwise" to continue hiking rates at this moment, and hinted that "if needed", the most natural option for the Fed going forward would be to do further Q.E.

Morgan Stanley Admits "Our Advice Has Been Horrendous", Blames "Bizarro World"

"Our portfolio advice has been pretty horrendous lately.... As an investor recently said to us at a conference, “I am doing a lot of things, just nothing with confidence”. Doing the opposite of what we recommended would have been better. Bizarro World. Or at least hopefully not the real world.."   - Morgan Stanley's Adam Parket

S&P Futures Storm Above 1900, Europe Jumps Despite Gloomy Asian Session

It has been a morning session of two halves. In Asia, the mood was somber, and stocks fell with the Shanghai Composite (+1.1%) outperforming on another late session binge-fest by the National Team. The European session on the other hand surged higher and did not look back when the USDJPY proceeded to soar 100 pips from overnight lows, and push the Stoxx 600 +1.7% and US equity futures up with it, with the ES trading above 1900 as of this posting, adding to the best 2-day rally in the S&P in five months.

JPMorgan: "It's Hard To Imagine An Uglier Morning"

"Trying to divine the end of the rout is difficult given the globe is in the midst of a series of tightly intertwined, self-reinforcing, and correlated trades and narratives (i.e. oil slumps and drags inflation down with it which prompts CBs to ratchet up accommodation which sinks banks which crushes general market sentiment and the overall price declines tighten financial market conditions and scares corporate execs and actual economic activity begins to deteriorate)."

"Buy High, Sell Low" - The Psychology Of Loss

The reality of loss will be more than most can stomach and sentiments of “time in the market” will go mostly unheeded. This is, of course, why many of the coveted millennial investors have already rejected much of the Wall Street rhetoric after watching the devastation that wrecked their parents over the last 15 years.