Typically, a bottom occurs when both commercials and speculators are flat, and the latest report is still a long way from that. But if things stay this way, this indicator, at least, will be screaming “buy gold”.
1) Peak Liquidity: era of excess liquidity is over; 2) Peak Inequality: more fiscal stimulus to address inequality; 3) Peak Globalization: free movement of trade, labor, capital ending; FX wars starting; 4) Peak Deflation: low point in bond yields now behind us; 5) Trough Volatility: era of “flash volatility” and “pain trades” continues; 6) Peak Passive: active investors to outperform passive; 7) Transforming World: robotics, eCommerce constrain inflation upside
All this talk of massive new infrastructure spending financed with a tsunami of freshly-minted currency should be lighting a fire under gold. That it hasn’t is a testament to how out-of-whack the precious metals market had gotten during the first six months of this year.
According to BofA, the biggest tail risk is now a "stagflationary bond crash" - crowded longs (Minimum Volatility, US/EU credit, long EM debt) remain vulnerable to further jump in yields. In contrast, political rhetoric to calm “protectionism" fears (which jumped to highest levels since 2009) would boost risk appetite.
Prior to the election, investors didn’t believe there was much operating leverage available in corporate America. Slow revenue growth, slow inflation, slow wage growth, slow earnings growth. That was the recipe for next year. Now, expectations for better economic growth have markets scrambling to find companies with the operating leverage (read high fixed costs and high incremental margins) to show outsized earnings growth as a result.
Sharp turn taken by commodities, after U.S. bond market “took down” EM assets Thursday, will add to EM pain, Deutsche Bank strategist Alan Ruskin writes. There’s signs that higher bond yields, “knock” of stronger USD are having a “domino impact,” taking down weakest risky assets first before moving on to next weakest.
Yesterday we wondered how long the broader market would ignore the carnage taking place across emerging markets, instead focusing on making the Dow Jones Industrial Average both great, and all time high, again. Today, we got our answer.
The global repricing of inflation expectations continues at a feverish pace in the aftermath of the Trump victory, leading to another surge in US equity futures, up 15 points or 0.7% to 2175 at last check, with Asian and European stock market all surging after the initial shock of Trump’s election victory gave way to optimism for fiscal stimulus will provide a boost to the global economy. Commodity metals soared with copper surging the most since May 2013.
"Every client overnight asked us the same question - "should I buy the dip?" with the futures hitting temporary shutdown circuit breakers as we are typing this around midnight New York time. We'd love to say yes, as we have been avid dip buyers over the past few years. But, our gut instinct is no."
With yesterday's, 8th consecutive decline for the S&P 500, the US equity market has now posted the longest losing streak since October 2008; and should we close payrolls Friday day with another negative print, it would be the longest negative streak since December 1980. Putting the recent slide in context, stocks are now down compared to a year ago, and are unchanged since December 2014.
We delve into the EIA Oil Report, which was an inline report overall, the only thing that stood out like a sore thumb, was an unusually large import number that came out of nowhere, and doesn`t match historical patterns.
With October, the worst month for stocks since January, now in the history books S&P futures are eager to telegraph that the streak of five consecutive will end, with a modest gain of 0.3% in overnight trading, coupled with mixed global markets as the global bond selloff returned after strong Chinese economic data prompted concerns about rising global inflation.