Price Action

Your Complete, Last Minute FOMC Minutes Preview, And How To Trade Them

Here are the key things the market will look for in today's FOMC minutes, made more interesting following yesterday's unscheduled, and substantially hawkish comments from Ny Fed's Bill Dudley. Also, for those looking to trade the minutes, here are some ideas on how the market may respond.

European Stocks Drop, Futures Flat As Rising Dollar Pressures Oil, EMs: All Eyes On The Fed Minutes

European stocks are down led by tech, chemicals, alongside EM stocks which retreated from near a one-year high and oil fell for the first time in a week after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials revived bets on U.S. interest rate rises this year, and pushed the dollar higher from 7 week lows ahead of today's Fed Minutes. S&P 500 futures were little changed following yesterday's drop from record highs

Global Stocks Rise, US Futures Near All Time Highs As Flood Into Emerging Markets Continues

European shares advanced, with gains in automakers  helping Germany’s benchmark DAX Index turn positive for the year for the first time. Stocks rose around the world, led by emerging-markets, as oil climbed further after its best week since April and traders pushed back bets on higher U.S. interest rates. S&P futures advance and Asian stocks little changed as rising oil prices bolstered investor sentiment.

US Futures Rebound, European Stocks Higher As Oil Rises

The summer doldrums continue with another listless overnight session, not helpd by Japan markets which are closed for holiday, as Asian stocks fell fractionally, while European stocks rebounded as oil trimmed losses after the the IEA said pent-up demand would absorb record crude output (something they have said every single month). S&P futures have wiped out almost all of yesterday's losses and were up over 0.2% in early trading.

US Futures Flat; Bonds Rise, Dollar And Oil Slide Over US Productivity Collapse Fears

Following yesterday's muted action which saw the S&P500 close unchanged, it has been more of the same listless trading overnight, with US equity index futures little changed as the Nikkei fell on the back of a stronger Yen, while government bonds rose and European stocks reversed early gains following the BOE failed bond monetization operation. Crude oil dropped for a second day after Saudi Arabia told OPEC that it pumped a record 10.67 million barrels of oil a day,

Morgan Stanley Expects Oil To Hit $35 In A Few Weeks: Here's Why

Morgan Stanley's Adam Longson confirmed overnight that he isn't going to change his bearish oil call any time soon, with a warning that "very little has been addressed fundamentally to correct these problems. Greater headwinds lay ahead, especially for crude oil. In fact, we would argue that recent price action and developments may have exacerbated the situation." Putting a number to his call: oil will slide to $35 in the next 1-3 months.

Gartman "Suffers Worst Day Of The Year", Flips Flops Again: "We Have No Choice, We Have To Dance With TINA"

The trend, despite our antipathy to it, remains upward and we have been undeniably wrong in having taken up a small bearish position via a bet on volatility rising.... We covered part of that position in the VXX last week. We covered more immediately after the news on payrolls was released, and we shall cover more today. We’ve no choice. We have to dance with TINA… There Is No Alternative…until the music stops even though we do not like the music and we do not like the band.

Oil Spikes On Renewed OPEC Supply Cut Chatter, Just As Hedge Funds Turn Record Short

The key catalyst for today's spike is another convenient report by OPEC, according to which the oil exporting organization will hold informal talks at an energy conference in September. However. the biggest threat to oil's recent price decline is that, like in February, hedge funds are now massively short. In fact, according to Bloomberg, hedge funds have gone all-in on lower oil prices, counting on seasonal weakness to play out again this year. Specifically, money managers increased wagers on declining crude prices to a record as futures dropped to the lowest in more than three months.

The Most Cynical Take On Friday's Jobs Number: "The Fed Will Not Hike In September With Trump In The Race": Citi

"Fed credibility is near zero so a strong number doesn’t matter much. This Fed is not going to hike two months before an election where the Republican candidate is seen by many as unfit to lead. So NFP doesn’t matter much. This drop in Fed credibility is borne out in the price action as you have probably noticed that the market doesn’t react at all to Fed commentary anymore." - Citi

S&P Futures Flat As Europe, Asia Lifted By Banks, Yen; All Eyes On The Bank Of England

In a mostly quiet session, European and Asian stocks rose, pushed higher by financial stocks and the USDJPY which initially dipped on some hawkish comments by BOJ deputy governor Iwata, only to rebound later in the session, lifting the Nikkei 1.1%, while the Stoxx 600 rose 0.4% led higher by the banking sector. S&P futures are unchnaged after yesterday's last hour ramp. The key event is the BOE decision due in half an hour.