Private Equity

Are These Two Companies Proof That The Housing Bubble Is Back?

Regulations designed to thwart speculative housing bubbles (regulations that likely wouldn't be required if banks were simply allowed to suffer the consequences of their bad financing decisions) are only as good as the latest business model designed specifically to evade them.

"Today, The Music Stops..."

"Today the Fed should formally announce that after nearly a decade, it’s going to start vacuuming up a lot of that money it printed in 2008...Bottom line: they’re going to start cutting the lights and turning off the music...And given the enormous impact that this policy had on asset prices, it would be foolish to think its reversal will be consequence-free."

Government By Goldman

"...now Cohn’s in charge of the economy and talking about eliminating financial reform and basically putting the country back to where it was in 2005, as if 2008 didn’t happen. I’ve started the countdown clock to the next financial crash, which will make the last one look mild."

Gun Stocks Soar On Report Trump Set To Ease Export Rules

In a week in which the MIC already scored big with Monday's sale of Orbital, today it was the NRA's turn to rejoice, when gun stocks soared on a Reuters report that the Trump administration was preparing "to make it easier for American gun makers to sell small arms, assault rifles and ammunition" to foreign buyers. The stocks of Ruger, Smith & Wesson and American Outdoor brands have all soared by as much as 18% on the news.

Advice From The Trader Who Made $1 Billion In 1929...

“After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made big money for me. It was always my sitting.

Frontrunning: September 18

  • Caribbean Braces for Another Hurricane: Maria (WSJ)
  • Trump, Haley to share spotlight at U.N. gathering (Reuters)
  • UN ‘Club’ Trump Derided Forges Unexpected Alliance on Key Issues (BBG)
  • ‘We’ve Been Breached’: Inside the Equifax Hack (WSJ)
  • World stocks reach new peak as Fed-focused week begins (Reuters)

Could Market Complexity Trigger The Next Crash?

Just like in an avalanche, where various factors at the top of a mountain (accumulating volumes of snow, weather, temperature, geology, gravity, etc.) make up a complex system that is difficult to predict, markets are similarly complex... and prone to instantaneous collapse.

World Stocks Pull Back Amid Rising Concerns Of A Market Correction

For the first day in three S&P futures have pulled back modestly from record levels as some investors cautioned that gains had gone too far, too fast, European shares are mixed while Asian equities extended their longest rising streak in almost two months as continued gains in Japan and India offset the losses in Hong Kong.

Frontrunning: September 12

  • Trump Plans Aggressive Road Show to Sell Tax Overhaul (BBG)
  • Trump to weigh more aggressive U.S. strategy on Iran (Reuters)
  • Florida Turns to Recovery as Irma Moves North (WSJ)
  • What to Expect at Apple’s Biggest Event in Years (BBG)
  • A $150 Billion Misfire: How Forecasters Got Irma Damage So Wrong (BBG)

Frontrunning: September 11

  • U.S. Index Futures Rise as Irma Weakens, Korea Tensions Ease (BBG)
  • Irma Weakens as It Heads Past Tampa, Cutting Damage Forecast (BBG)
  • As Hurricane Irma heads toward Florida, U.S. military launches amphibious relief efforts in the Caribbean (WaPo)
  • Oil weakens on fears Irma could dent U.S. demand (Reuters)
  • ‘People are roaming like zombies.’ Virgin Islands stagger after storm passes (WaPo)