Private Equity

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Meet Landlord Loans: You Too Can Be A Real Estate Speculator





"Three big private equity firms — the Blackstone Group, Colony Capital and Cerberus Capital Management — are betting that so-called landlord loans to small and midsize investors will become the next big opportunity to profit from the rebound in the United States housing market. The private equity firms are providing financing indirectly to hundreds of real estate funds buying single-family homes, something that until recently was not widely available."

 
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Frontrunning: March 4





  • RBS to cut up to 14,000 jobs in investment banking unit (FT)
  • Doctors, patients scramble ahead of high court Obamacare decision (Reuters)
  • Rajan Cuts India Rates After Modi Agrees to Inflation Target (BBG)
  • Russia’s Putin Makes First Public Comments on Killing of Boris Nemtsov (WSJ)
  • House breaks impasse, passes security funding without provisions (Reuters)
  • How a 25-Year-Old Investor Spurred Lumber Liquidators’ Plunge (BBG)
  • Jeff Immelt’s Overhaul of GE Impeded by Falling Oil Prices (WSJ)
  • Sahara India Defaults on Luxury Hotel Loans From Bank of China (BBG)
 
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Breaking Bad (Debt) - Episode 2





Under normal circumstances, after 2008's conflagration of the calamitous collateralizations, we shouldn’t have seen such irrational, reckless, greedy behavior from Wall Street for another generation. But, Wall Street didn’t have to accept the consequences of their actions. They were bailed out and further enriched by their puppets at the Federal Reserve, the lackey politicians they installed in Washington D.C., and on the backs of honest, hard-working, tax paying Americans. The lesson they learned was they could continue to take excessive, reckless, unregulated risks without concern for losses, downside, or consequences.

 
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Frontrunning: February 27





  • Central Banks With Negative Rates Spur Question of How Low to Go (BBG)
  • DHS to keep running: Congress edges toward domestic security funding patch (Reuters)
  • Setbacks for Tsipras Stir Discord in Greek Ruling Party (BBG)
  • Greece’s Challenge: Appeasing Its Creditors and Its Population (WSJ)
  • Buffett, a cheerleader for America, takes his checkbook abroad (Reuters)
  • Oil’s Big Swings Are the New Normal: Market has rarely been more volatile (WSJ)
  • Ukraine Left Behind as Russian Stock Gains Are Unmatched (BBG)
  • Brent rises to $61, set for first monthly gain since July (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: February 26





  • Goldman Employees Reaped $2 Billion From 2008 Options Last Year (BBG)
  • On Bush turf, Obama blames immigration woes on Republicans (Reuters)
  • Tougher Internet rules to hit cable, telecoms companies (Reuters)
  • Russia's Gazprom says can exempt rebel-held areas from Ukraine gas contract (Reuters)
  • Allianz Says Pimco Seeing ‘Substantially’ Lower Outflows (BBG)
  • Merkel Faces Stepped-Up Dissent on Greek Bailout in Party (BBG)
  • SEC Probes Companies’ Treatment of Whistleblowers (WSJ)
  • 2-Year Trek From Turf to Table Delays Cheaper U.S. Beef (BBG)
  • Turkish jets violate Greek air space (Kathimerini)
 
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Frontrunning: February 23





  • Tsipras Tamed as Economists Declare Greece Loses Austerity Fight (BBG)
  • Greece readies reform plans to first sign of leftist unrest (Reuters)
  • Yellen Faces Congress Amid Direst Threat to Fed Since Dodd-Frank (BBG)
  • The war must go on: Kiev says cannot withdraw heavy weapons as attacks persist (Reuters)
  • Ukraine fears spread of war after blast in eastern city (Reuters)
  • Denmark Dismisses Report It Could Consider Capital Controls (BBG)
  • Deadline Nears on Homeland Security Funding Impasse (WSJ)
  • Gross Fund Hurt by Oil’s Plunge Amid Bets on Energy Bonds (BBG)
 
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"The Smart Money Is Selling, Not Buying" Goldman Warns With Valuations In The "99th Percentile"





"The median stock sports a P/E and EV/EBITDA of 18.0x and 11.0x, respectively. These valuations rank in the 99th percentile of both P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples since 1976.  The proverbial “smart money” is selling, not buying. Completed private equity sales through M&A and via follow-on offerings have both surged to record levels measured by both number of deals and by transaction value. A total of 350 follow-on sales by private equity firms were completed in 2013 and 2014, a 70% jump from the 210 transactions completed in 2011 and 2012."

 
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Frontrunning: February 11





  • Methodology change sees Indian economy grow faster than China's (Reuters)
  • Can Greek Businesses Even Survive? (WSJ)
  • Putin to travel to Minsk talks raising hopes of a deal over Ukraine (Euronews)
  • Ukraine contact group representatives deny ceasefire deal in Minsk (Reuters)
  • Moar buybacks! Hedge Fund-Backed Investor Puts Himself Up for G.M. Board (NYT)
  • Ukraine peace summit overshadowed by some of war's worst fighting (Reuters)
  • Time for non-non-GAAP excluding China: Tesla CEO threatens firings after dismal China sales - sources (Reuters)
  • Jon Stewart leaving Comedy Central's 'The Daily Show' (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: February 10





  • Greek defense minister says Greece has Plan B if EU rigid on deal (Reuters)
  • Germany rejects Greek claim for World War Two reparations (Reuters)
  • Greece to Seek $11.3 Billion in Financing to Avoid Funding Crunch (BBG)
  • Lazard Sees $113 Billion Greek Debt Cut as ‘Reasonable’ (BBG)
  • U.S. Navy Considers Setting Up Ship Base in Australia (BBG)
  • Dalio’s Bridgewater Fund Said to Rise 8.3% in January (BBG)
  • As U.S. Exits, China Takes On Afghanistan Role (WSJ)
  • EU money funds cut exposure to bank debt (FT)
  • China Inflation Drops to Five-Year Low in January (WSJ)
  • Oil-Price Rebound Predicted (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: February 9





  • Greek Risk Draws Global Concern on Lehman Echo Warnings (BBG)
  • Merkel to urge caution in U.S. as pressure builds to arm Ukraine forces (Reuters)
  • West Races to Defuse Ukraine Crisis (WSJ)
  • German-French Push Yields Ukraine Summit Plan With Putin (BBG)
  • Swiss Leaks lifts the veil on a secretive banking system (ICIJ)
  • Italy Lenders Seen Cleansing Books Amid Bad-Bank Plans (BBG)
  • G-20 Finance Chiefs Face Tough Test in Istanbul (WSJ)
  • Demand for OPEC Crude Will Rise This Year, Says Group (WSJ)... or rather prays
  • U.S. Banks Say Soaring Dollar Puts Them at Disadvantage (WSJ)
 
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The End Of Guitar Center (And An Irrational Addiction To Growth & The Scourge Of Unregulated Structured Finance)





The fact is, the die is cast. In a couple of weeks, Guitar Center will need to report its Christmas performance to its bondholders. If things do not look good, its bonds will be ripped apart like RadioShack’s. Here’s what this really means: it’s the end of big box retail, an irrational addiction to growth, and the scourge of unregulated structured finance. For a few years, unwise urban planning and unregulated banks created a new bubble in the American suburbs. The objective truth is that the growth of the last decade was financed by banking fraud, and that financial trickery of this sort only fools people in the short-term. Eventually, you must have a product people demand, sold by competent people who care about the business, financed in a way that makes sense.

 
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Frontrunning: February 4





  • Arab World Unites to Condemn ‘Barbaric’ Death of Jordanian Pilot (BBG)
  • Jordan hangs two Iraqi militants in response to pilot's death (Reuters)
  • As Oil Prices Climb, Some Harbor Doubts (WSJ)
  • Taiwan plane cartwheels into river after take-off, killing at least 19 (Reuters)
  • Seven dead as commuter train hits car near New York City (Reuters)
  • Apollo’s 600% Profit on Oil Company Leaves Rivals Behind (BBG)
  • Greece's rock-star finance minister Yanis Varoufakis defies ECB's drachma threats  (Telegraph)
 
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First Germany, Now ECB Rejects "Latest Greek Bailout Plan"





So much for the Greek "conciliatory proposal" story, driven by yesterday's FT article, and the catalyst for Monday's late day market surge.

 
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We Officially Declare The End Of RadioShack LBO Rumors





For anyone who has traded RadioShack's bonds or stocks over the last decade or so, the constant threat of an LBO has been the bane of any fundamental analysis as one Credit Suisse memorably described it as "a company in a virtual state of constant collapse." It appears, with multiple default notices this week and the news that NYSE will suspend/delist trading in the ever-on-the-block company, that the 'LBO rumor' threat is over. With several firms (Sprint, Sanpower, and Amazon) mulling post-bankruptcy purchases, the concept of a pre-petition savior appears dead in the water...

 
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