Private Equity

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Frontrunning: October 8

  • Congress probing U.S. spy agencies' possible lapses on Russia (Reuters)
  • Defense Ministers From NATO Hit Out at Russian Action in Syria (WSJ)
  • U.S. Rules Out Cooperation With Russia as Moscow Launches First Naval Strikes on Syria (WSJ)
  • Man Who Called China's Boom and Bust Says Use This Rally to Sell (BBG)
  • For Volkswagen, New Questions Arise on U.S. Injury Reporting (BBG)
  • Deutsche Bank May Swell $14 Billion Selloff in China Bank Stakes (BBG)
  • Emerging market slowdown hits German exports (FT)
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"You Never Go Full-Krugman": Insane Helicopter Money Calls Continue As Trapped Central Banks Face Keynesian Endgame

"The helicopter. Rather than buying assets, central banks drop money on the street. Or even better, in a more modern and civilised fashion, credit our bank accounts!" Yes, "even better!"...

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Frontrunning: September 30

  • Asia shares rally, but on track for worst quarterly loss in four years (Reuters)
  • Global Rally Shows Relief at End of $11 Trillion Stocks Meltdown (BBG)
  • Glencore Extends Rebound as Turmoil Shows Signs of Easing (BBG)
  • Putin wins parliamentary backing for air strikes in Syria (Reuters)
  • China Cuts Minimum Home Down Payment for First-Time Buyers (BBG)
  • German Unemployment Unexpectedly Rises in Sign of Economic Risks (BBG)
  • Japan Industrial Output Slide Hints at Recession (WSJ)
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Frontrunning: September 29

  • Commodities in crisis as Asian shares tumble and shipper files for bankruptcy (Reuters)
  • Global Rout Eases as S&P 500 Futures Advance With Oil, Glencore (BBG)
  • Chinese Stocks Decline Most in a Month in Hong Kong on Economy (BBG)
  • India cuts interest rates by more than expected (BBC)
  • Glencore Rebounds as $50 Billion Plunge Is Seen as Excessive (BBG)
  • How Congress May Have Saved Goldman Sachs From Itself (BBG)
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Weekend Reading: Fed Confusion

The current surge in dis-inflationary pressures is not just due to the recent fall in oil prices, but rather a global epidemic of slowing economic growth. While Janet Yellen addressed this "disinflationary" wave during her post-meeting press conference, the Fed still maintains the illusion of confidence that economic growth will return shortly. Unfortunately, this has been the Fed's "Unicorn" since 2011 as annual hopes of economic recovery have failed to materialize. However, it is these ongoing views of optimism that have collided with economic realities.

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"There IS An Alternative" - Since The End Of QE3, Financial Market Returns Are Negative... Except The US Dollar

"The big upside for both corporate bonds & corporate stocks has subsided as the liquidity story has peaked. Of greater note, the recent big reversal in the performance of assets directly linked to the bull market on Wall Street. Private equity managers and large asset managers saw their stocks appreciate 36% & 32% respectively between QE1 and the end of QE3. Since the end of QE3, the annualized returns are -10% & -18% respectively."

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Forget The New World Order, Here's Who Really Runs The World

The phrase New World Order is largely derided as a sophomoric conspiracy theory entertained by minds that lack the sophistication necessary to understand the nuances of geopolitics. But it turns out the core idea — one of deep and overarching collusion between Wall Street and government with a globalist agenda — is operational in what a number of insiders call the “Deep State.”

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David Petraeus, "Treasury Analyst": Please Don't Quit Your Day Job

Somehow everything in the following statement from David Petraeus is wrong: "There is no shortage of customers for the purchase of U.S. Treasuries," said Petraeus.... "Given the relative strength of the U.S. economy and the prospect of the Fed raising interest rates at some point in the months ahead, I suspect there will continue to be very keen interest in U.S. Treasuries." 

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Harvard Endowment Chief Warns Of Market Froth, Compares Rate Hike To Bubble-Bursting Catalyst

"We are proceeding with caution in several areas of the portfolio: many of our absolute return managers are accumulating increasing amounts of cash; we are being careful about not over-committing into illiquid investments in potentially frothy markets, while still ensuring we will be involved if market dislocations arise. ...  An interesting question emerges: could rising interest rates in 2016 have an analogous impact to falling house prices in 2007, where a range of largely unanticipated second-order effects was triggered?"

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Destroying Dimon's Delusionary View Of Economic Realities

While Mr. Dimon's view - "Amerca has the best hand ever dealt right now." is certainly uplifting, it is a bit delusional. But of course, give any person a billion dollars and they will likely become just as detached from economic realities. Does America have "greatest hand ever dealt." The data certainly doesn't suggest such. However, that can change. We just have to stop hoping that we can magically cure a debt problem by adding more debt and then shuffling it between Central Banks.

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This Is What Needs To Happen For Oil Prices To Stabilize

Each of the 3 stages needed to move to a sustainable price have to be given time to play out. The rig count story has been told with a brutally fast 60 percent drop. Meaningful production declines are on. Next will be inventory draw downs; in that order. As to the latter, we’re just beginning to see the effects of the rig count. Large drawdowns will be here sooner than predicted.

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Deep State America

Ordinary Americans frequently ask why politicians and government officials appear to be so obtuse, rarely recognizing what is actually occurring in the country. That is partly due to the fact that the political class lives in a bubble of its own creation, but it might also be because many of America’s leaders actually accept that there is an unelected, unappointed, and unaccountable presence within the system that actually manages what is taking place behind the scenes. That would be the American deep state. America’s deep state is completely corrupt: it exists to sell out the public interest, and includes both major political parties as well as government officials.

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Japanese Stocks/USDJPY Plunge As China Cracks Down On Aggressive-Buying By "Sinister Stock Squads"

Despite the approval of various Asian nation officials (e.g. Japan's Amari: "Fed decision appropriate"), it appears non-hawkishness is not enough to keep the dream alive. Japan's Nikkei 225 is down over 600 points from its post-FOMC spike highs, and USDJPY has tumbled over 1 handle - back below 120.00. Chinese stocks are extending losses after last night's late tumble, as ironically, China's securities regulator has uncovered a number of market manipulators who boosted prices of some stocks to sky-high levels during the peak of the bull market, attracting numerous followers who have suffered heavy losses in the recent market crash. The PBOC strengthened the Yuan fix for the 2nd day in a row (by the most in 2 weeks).

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