Private Equity

Frontrunning: April 1

  • Italian Bank Stocks are Surging on the Back of Rescue Reports (WSJ)
  • European Stocks Rise Led by Italian Banks; Emerging Markets Gain (BBG)
  • Oil price dips on prospects for producers' meeting (Reuters)
  • U.S. shale oil firms feel credit squeeze as banks grow cautious (Reuters)
  • U.S. banks' dismal first quarter may spell trouble for 2016 (Reuters)
  • Miserable Year for Banks: Stocks Suffer as Rates Stay Low (WSJ)

YHOO Pumps'n'Dumps After Multiple Bidders Appear

While YHOO shares have jumped after the announcement of several potential bidders (including Time Inc, Verizon, Bain, TPG, and Google), it has merely recovered the day's losses.

Oil Tumbles After Saudis Say They Will Freeze Oil Production Only If Iran Joins

And so the great "oil production freeze" rumor, which helped halt oil's plunge after it hit a 13 year low in early February and forced a 50% short squeeze higher,has died after Bloomberg released an interview with Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in which when asked if Iran needs to join freeze, he said: "without a doubt. If all countries including Iran, Russia, Venezuela, OPEC countries and all main producers decide to freeze production, we will be among them." 

Prominent Hedge Fund Luxor Capital Warns Redeeming Investors Will Be "Gated" After Sharp Losses

About a decade ago, Christian Leone's Luxor Capital was one of the biggest brand names in the industry, and alongside Harbinger and DB Zwirn, every trader and analyst on Wall Street wanted to work there. Since then things have changed. According to Reuters, Luxor, which had $3.8 billion under management at last check, "has been losing money for months" and on Monday it surprised investors when it announced it would "not be returning exiting investors cash in full, keeping a portion locked up until some illiquid investments can be sold."

These Energy Companies Are Most At Risk From The "Spring Redetermination"

The companies most at risk may actually be those with that currently have some of the most highly utilized borrowing bases, ranging anywhere from 62% for Contango to 94% for Vanguard. It is these companies that will suddenly find themselves with zero incremental sources of liquidity as the banks proceed to whack anywhere from 30 to 50% of their borrowing base, leaving them scrambling to preserve liquidity and ultimately leading to bankruptcy court

Partner At Blackstone Spun-off Private Equity Firm Arrested, Charged With Stealing $95 Million

In a shocking development, earlier today a highly reputable executive with a just as reputable private equity firm was arrested and charged with securities fraud. Andrew Caspersen, a Harvard Law School graduate and a partner at the Park Hill Group, an advisory firm that up until last fall had been a part of the Blackstone Group, was accused of defrauding numerous institutional investors out of $95 million through fake private equity investments.

Futures Rise In Thin Trading On Back Of Yen Weakness; Europe Closed

With European markets closed across the continent on Monday as the Easter holiday continues, overnight Asia was busy with China Shanghai Composite letting off some steam, and closing down 0.7% at session lows on concerns the Shanghai and Shenzhen home bubble have been popped by the politburo, Japan was a different story with the Yen sliding following a report by the Sankei newspaper that Abe will announce in May his intention to delay the planned levy hike, coupled with additional reports that Japan will unveil a major fiscal stimulus (and just on Friday Abe said he is "not thinking at all about supplemental budget" at this time).

America's Top Rogue Mercenary - Blackwater's Erik Prince Is Under Federal Investigation

"...the inquiry was abandoned after Blackwater’s top manager there issued a threat: “that he could kill” the government’s chief investigator and “no one could or would do anything about it as we were in Iraq," according to department reports. There’s only one way to stop a guy like this - lock him up. For once, do your job Department of Justice.

On Opex Day, It's All About The Dollar: Futures, Oil Levitate As USD Weakness Persists

It may be option expiration day (always leading to abnormal market activity) but it remains all about the weak dollar, which after crashing in the two days after the Fed's surprisingly dovish statement has put both the ECB and the BOJ in the very awkward position that shortly after both banks have drastically eased, the Euro and the Yen are now trading stronger relative to the dollar versus prior. As DB puts it, "the US Dollar has tumbled in a fairly impressive fashion since the FOMC on Wednesday with the Dollar spot index now down the most over a two-day period since 2009" which naturally hurts those countries who have been rushing to debase their own currencies against the USD.

Central Bankers' Embarrassment Of Stitches

Had central bankers simply taken to heart that well known idiom that cautions "a stitch in time saves nine" early on, they would not now be so frantically stitching such a gaping gash in the world economy. One thing is for certain. All of this quantitative pleasing has done little to lift the spirits of the world’s worker bees.

Frontrunning: March 14

  • Fed to sit tight on rates at March meet, hint at hikes to come (Reuters)
  • Election setback a 'wake-up call' for Merkel, media and politicians say (Reuters)
  • Germany’s Merkel under renewed attack after populists’ poll success (FT)
  • Temperatures Rise on Eve of Next GOP Contests (WSJ)
  • Carl Icahn setting up son to take his place: sources (Post)
  • Turkey Vows Swift Retaliation After Bomb Kills 37 in Capital (BBG)

The World Economy Wreckers Of Beijing

As Donald Trump speeds toward the White House, the mainstream media will soon be gumming vigorously about how American politics became so unhinged. They need look no further than the Red Suzerains of Beijing. It is their monumental foolishness that has made The Donald possible.

Frontrunning: March 10

  • Pressure Is on Mario Draghi to Show ECB Has Tools to Boost Low Inflation (WSJ)
  • Euro dips as ECB sets sights on deeper negative rates (Reuters)
  • Ohio's 'dirty little secret': blue-collar Democrats for Trump (Reuters)
  • Irish Economy Expanded 7.8% in 2015, Fastest Pace Since 2000 (BBG)
  • Too Many Boats for Too Little Cargo Leaves Shippers High and Dry (BBG)

Trumpomania & Trumpopanic

The country’s social mood is apparently ripe and it finally seems actually possible for a perceived outsider to win by challenging the established order. Our main regret is that it wasn’t yet ripe at the time Ron Paul tried his hand at winning the nomination. Everything Trump is saying and doing should probably be seen in the context of his strategy. It’s quite Machiavellian actually. The alleged lack of discernible policy stances, the occasional contradictions and often hair-raising statements are all in pursuit of the same goal: to win the nomination. Other than that, we mainly enjoy the growing discomfort of assorted cronies and professional politicians.