Private Equity

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Fortress Confirms Novogratz-Led Macro Fund Closure After Bad Brazil, China Bets





“After careful consideration and analysis, we have decided to close the Fortress Macro Funds and return cash to our investors...  But we have had an extremely challenging two years, and I do not believe the current environment is conducive to achieving our best results."

 
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Fortress Liquidating Its Once Gargantuan Macro Hedge Fund After 17% Loss In 2015





Just before the first credit bubble burst, Fortress' Macro hedge fund, then known as Drawbridge as well as several other castle-related terms, peaked at just over $8 billion. Together with Phil Falcone's Harbinger, it was one of the most desired venue to work among the young hedge fund crowd. It has been downhill ever since, and unfortunately for the hedge fund run by Michael Novogratz, which reported $2.5 billion in AUM as of June 30, a number which plunged to just $1.6 billion two months later according to HSBC, as a result of a terrible year, down 13.4% YTD after losing 1.6% in 2014, and having suffered its biggest ever drawdown the macro hedge fund, which does not file an equity 13-F, is liquidating.

 
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Peak Sovereign Wealth Fund?





Even with the drop in oil prices, the $7 trillion invested in Sovereign Wealth Funds makes them important participants in global capital markets; what they do, even at the margin, matters.

 
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Frontrunning: October 8





  • Congress probing U.S. spy agencies' possible lapses on Russia (Reuters)
  • Defense Ministers From NATO Hit Out at Russian Action in Syria (WSJ)
  • U.S. Rules Out Cooperation With Russia as Moscow Launches First Naval Strikes on Syria (WSJ)
  • Man Who Called China's Boom and Bust Says Use This Rally to Sell (BBG)
  • For Volkswagen, New Questions Arise on U.S. Injury Reporting (BBG)
  • Deutsche Bank May Swell $14 Billion Selloff in China Bank Stakes (BBG)
  • Emerging market slowdown hits German exports (FT)
 
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"You Never Go Full-Krugman": Insane Helicopter Money Calls Continue As Trapped Central Banks Face Keynesian Endgame





"The helicopter. Rather than buying assets, central banks drop money on the street. Or even better, in a more modern and civilised fashion, credit our bank accounts!" Yes, "even better!"...

 
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Frontrunning: September 30





  • Asia shares rally, but on track for worst quarterly loss in four years (Reuters)
  • Global Rally Shows Relief at End of $11 Trillion Stocks Meltdown (BBG)
  • Glencore Extends Rebound as Turmoil Shows Signs of Easing (BBG)
  • Putin wins parliamentary backing for air strikes in Syria (Reuters)
  • China Cuts Minimum Home Down Payment for First-Time Buyers (BBG)
  • German Unemployment Unexpectedly Rises in Sign of Economic Risks (BBG)
  • Japan Industrial Output Slide Hints at Recession (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: September 29





  • Commodities in crisis as Asian shares tumble and shipper files for bankruptcy (Reuters)
  • Global Rout Eases as S&P 500 Futures Advance With Oil, Glencore (BBG)
  • Chinese Stocks Decline Most in a Month in Hong Kong on Economy (BBG)
  • India cuts interest rates by more than expected (BBC)
  • Glencore Rebounds as $50 Billion Plunge Is Seen as Excessive (BBG)
  • How Congress May Have Saved Goldman Sachs From Itself (BBG)
 
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Weekend Reading: Fed Confusion





The current surge in dis-inflationary pressures is not just due to the recent fall in oil prices, but rather a global epidemic of slowing economic growth. While Janet Yellen addressed this "disinflationary" wave during her post-meeting press conference, the Fed still maintains the illusion of confidence that economic growth will return shortly. Unfortunately, this has been the Fed's "Unicorn" since 2011 as annual hopes of economic recovery have failed to materialize. However, it is these ongoing views of optimism that have collided with economic realities.

 
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"There IS An Alternative" - Since The End Of QE3, Financial Market Returns Are Negative... Except The US Dollar





"The big upside for both corporate bonds & corporate stocks has subsided as the liquidity story has peaked. Of greater note, the recent big reversal in the performance of assets directly linked to the bull market on Wall Street. Private equity managers and large asset managers saw their stocks appreciate 36% & 32% respectively between QE1 and the end of QE3. Since the end of QE3, the annualized returns are -10% & -18% respectively."

 
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Forget The New World Order, Here's Who Really Runs The World





The phrase New World Order is largely derided as a sophomoric conspiracy theory entertained by minds that lack the sophistication necessary to understand the nuances of geopolitics. But it turns out the core idea — one of deep and overarching collusion between Wall Street and government with a globalist agenda — is operational in what a number of insiders call the “Deep State.”

 
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David Petraeus, "Treasury Analyst": Please Don't Quit Your Day Job





Somehow everything in the following statement from David Petraeus is wrong: "There is no shortage of customers for the purchase of U.S. Treasuries," said Petraeus.... "Given the relative strength of the U.S. economy and the prospect of the Fed raising interest rates at some point in the months ahead, I suspect there will continue to be very keen interest in U.S. Treasuries." 

 
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Harvard Endowment Chief Warns Of Market Froth, Compares Rate Hike To Bubble-Bursting Catalyst





"We are proceeding with caution in several areas of the portfolio: many of our absolute return managers are accumulating increasing amounts of cash; we are being careful about not over-committing into illiquid investments in potentially frothy markets, while still ensuring we will be involved if market dislocations arise. ...  An interesting question emerges: could rising interest rates in 2016 have an analogous impact to falling house prices in 2007, where a range of largely unanticipated second-order effects was triggered?"

 
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