Volcker Rule Details Revealed: Compensation For Prop Trading Will Be Barred... Just Not Prop Trading ItselfSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/09/2013 17:03 -0500
The WSJ has revealed the latest developments of tomorrow's "fluid" Volcker Rule vote on prop trading:
- Volcker Rule Will Bar Compensation Arrangements That Reward Proprietary Trading, Rule Text Says
- Rule Will Exempt Foreign Sovereign Debt From Proprietary Trading Ban, According To Rule Text Reviewed By Wall Street Journal
In other words, prop trading itself will not be explicitly barred, just associated compensation (and banks can still buy as much Italian and Spanish bonds for their accounts as they want). Which means banks can engage in as much prop trading as they wish (which courtesy of $2.4 trillion in excess deposits aka excess reserves is a lot) and bang as much VIX closes as they desire, they just need to have trader bonus "arranagements" to be tied to something else. Like make-believe flow trading which can be manipulated to show anything and everything.
The Fed's Catch 22 just got catchier. While most attention in the recently released FOMC minutes fell on the return of the taper as a possibility even as soon as December (making the November payrolls report the most important ever, ever, until the next one at least), a less discussed issue was the Fed's comment that it would consider lowering the Interest on Excess Reserves to zero as a means to offset the implied tightening that would result from the reduction in the monthly flow once QE entered its terminal phase (for however briefly before the plunge in the S&P led to the Untaper). After all, the Fed's policy book goes, if IOER is raised to tighten conditions, easing it to zero, or negative, should offset "tightening financial conditions", right? Wrong. As the FT reports leading US banks have warned the Fed that should it lower IOER, they would be forced to start charging depositors.
With such a spectacular source of impeccably timed, if always wrong, FX trading recommendations as Tom Stolper, who has cost his muppets clients tens of thousands of pips in currency losses in the past 5 years, and thus generated the inverse amount in profits for Goldman's trading desks, the last thing we expected to learn was that Goldman's currency traders, who by definition takes the opposite side of its Kermitted clients - because prop trading is now long forbidden, (right Volcker rule?) and any prop trading blow up in the aftermath of the London Whale fiasco is not only a humiliation but probably illegal - had lost massive amounts on an FX trade gone wrong. Which is precisely what happened.
- JPMorgan $13 Billion Mortgage Deal Seen as Lawsuit Shield (BBG)
- J.P. Morgan Is Haunted by a 2006 Decision on Mortgages (WSJ)
- World powers, Iran in new attempt to reach nuclear deal (Reuters)
- Keystone Foes Seek to Thwart Oil Sands Exports by Rail (BBG) - mostly Warren Buffet?
- How Would Fed Deal With Debt Ceiling Crisis? Look to Minutes for Clues (Hilsenrath)
- Anything to prevent the loss of prop trading: 'Volcker Rule' Faces New Hurdles (WSJ)
- BOE Sees Case for Keeping Record-Low Rate Beyond 7% Jobless (BBG)
- Obama Backs Piecemeal Immigration Overhaul (WSJ)
- Abenomics Seen Cutting Japan Bad-Loan Costs to 2006 Low (BBG)
- What can possibly go wrong: Tepco Successfully Removes First Nuclear Fuel Rods at Fukushima (BBG)
- Japan's Banks Find It Hard to Lend Easy Money (WSJ)
- U.S. Military Eyes Cut to Pay, Benefits (WSJ)
- Airbus to Boeing Cash In on Desert Outpost Made Field of Dreams (BBG); Dubai Air Show: Boeing leads order books race (BBG)
- Sony sells 1 million PlayStation 4 units in first 24 hours (Reuters)
- Russian Tycoon Prokhorov to Buy Kerimov's Uralkali Stake (WSJ)
- Google Opening Showrooms to Show Off Gadgets for Holidays (BBG)
- Need. Moar. Prop. Trading: Federal Reserve considering a delay to Volcker rule (FT)
- Raghuram Rajan plans ‘dramatic remaking’ of India’s banking system (FT)
- SAC Capital's Steinberg faces insider trading trial (Reuters)
On the surface Goldman's earnings, which just hit the tape at $2.88/share, and which beat expectations of $2.47 - higher than the $2.85 from a year ago - were far better than some of the worst case expectations. That is, until one actually looks at how they were derived. Sadly for Goldman's employees, the EPS beat was not due to a rise in actual revenues, which missed expectations of $7.35 billion massively, printing at $6.72 billion and down 20% from a year ago, but due a slashing in compensation expenses, which were brutalized from $3.7 billion in Q3 2013 and Q2 2013, to "only" $2.4 billion, a 35% Y/Y drop!
On the surface, the latest Q3 bank numbers to come out of Bank of America today, were not quite as bad as those previously reported by the other TBTFs, namely JPM, Wells and Citi. At a (massively adjuste4d) EPS of $0.20, this was just 1 cent below the expected $0.21, even as net revenue of $21.74 billion missed expectations of $21.95 billion. So far so good. At least so good until one realizes that of the $5.1 billion in pretax income, some 1.4 billion, or over a quarter, was from the usual accounting magic well of gimmicks: loan loss reserve releases! In fact, the $1.391 billion in reserve reduction driven by $1.7 billion in charge offs offset by a tiny $0.3 billion in provisions, was the highest reserve release in the past year, only lower than last Q3's $2.3 billion, when the bank - just like today - was in desperate need of any source of fake earnings. Why? Because the bank's loan origination group, just like all other banks', cratered, and saw non-interest income in its real estate services division implode by $1.5 billion to just $844 million. So much for whatever housing recovery the rose-colored glasses ones had envisioned...
The Fed's Broken Piping In One Chart: JPM "Purchasing Dry Powder" Rises To All Time High $550 BilllionSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/11/2013 11:54 -0500
As of the most recent data, which saw JPM's deposit holdings surge by the most ever (except of course for the inorganic "acquisition" of WaMu in Q3 2008) or $78 billion in just one quarter, while loans continued to be flat, we now knows that JPM had marginable power to chase risk higher to the tune of $552 billion, an all time record in excess deposits over loans!
Take all the talk about how "soaring" (to below 3%) rates will not impact housing, or that rising rates are great for banks because they help boost Net Interest Margins, and dump it in the trash. Why? Exhibit A - Wells Fargo, the bank which is most reliant on the housing market (unlike such prop trading powerhouses as JPM and Goldman) to generate revenues (which missed expectations) which just announced its Q3 earnings. The numbers of note were not among the fudged top or bottom-line headline grabbers. They were far uglier, and were as follows.
JPM Hammered By Massive $9.2 Billion In Legal Expenses, Posts First Loss Under Dimon; Takes $1.6 Billion Reserve ReleaseSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/11/2013 06:42 -0500
So much for the JPM "fortress balance sheet." Moments ago the bank which 18 months ago stunned the world with the biggest prop trading loss in history, just reported its first quarterly loss under Jamie Dimon, missing expected revenue of $24 billion with a print of $23.88 billion, but it was net income where the stunner was in the form of a $0.4 billion net income. The reason: the fact that from the government's best friend, Jamie Dimon has become the punching bag du jour, and having to pay $9.15 billion in pretax legal expenses, the biggest in company history. Considering that the other key component of Q3 net income was a whopping $1.6 billion in loan loss reserve releases, one wonders just how truly strong Q3 earnings really were. But of course, this being Wall Street, all negative news is "one-time" and to be added back. Which is why JPM promptly took benefit for all charges, which means adding back the $7.2 billion legal expense and $992 MM reserve release after tax benefit. In short: of the firm's $1.42 in pro forma EPS, a whopping $1.59 was purely from the addback of these two items.
With Janet Yellen now confirmed as Bernanke Mark 2, it is time to recall that in addition to a new Chairman, four of the Fed's voting members will also rotate. And while below is the latest preview of the voting FOMC members (previously 2011 and 2012) ranked by Reuters in terms of their dovishness and hawiskness, the reality is that the peripheral Fed presidents (here we focus on the Hawks obviously) are nothing but figureheads whose only function is to be roundly ignored if and when they dissent with the new Chairman.
While a mortgage-related lawsuit and/or a settlement was long in the making, and was well-known to most in the industry, it is the monetary aspect of the resolution that is slowing down the outcome. Because if the NYT is correct, not even taking credit for all its fake "earnings" in the form of a complete reserve release would save JPM: "Underscoring the breadth of the scrutiny, the people said, JPMorgan and the Department of Housing and Urban Development briefly discussed the possibility of striking a wide-ranging settlement to conclude many of the looming mortgage investigations from federal authorities and state attorneys general. But the housing agency floated a price tag of about $20 billion for the settlement, the people said, effectively derailing settlement talks with JPMorgan lawyers, who were stunned by the size of the proposed penalty and expected to pay a fraction of that sum."
As it turns out, a lot... and also very little.