Puerto Rico

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Frontrunning: August 28





  • Stock Halts Added to Monday’s Market Chaos (WSJ)
  • Fed Up Investors Yank Cash From Almost Everything Just Like 2008 (BBG)
  • Drop in Stock Futures Signal Halt to S&P 500's Relief Rally (BBG) - at least until the BOJ ramps USDJPY up again
  • Hacker Killed by Drone Was Islamic State’s ‘Secret Weapon’ (WSJ)
  • Greece's Syriza to win election but face setback, poll shows (Reuters)
  • Puerto Rico Spends More Than $60 Million on Debt Restructuring (BBG)
 
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No Discussion Of Economic Outlook In Bill Dudley Speech, Attention Turns To Q&A





Perhaps the biggest market moving event of the day, more so than the Durables data, was Bill Dudley's speech. However, at least based on the prepared remarks there is no discussion of the economy. From Bloomerg. Now all eyes turn to the Q&A which is where any questions relevant to the recent move in markets will most likely emerge.

 
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Frontrunning: August 26





  • Global Stocks Struggle to Shrug Off China Fears (WSJ)
  • Brief Respite Ends for European Stocks Amid Renewed Retreat (BBG)
  • Stock futures rise after China injects $21.8 billion (Reuters)
  • China turmoil needn't rattle BOJ, yen rise not a worry: Abe adviser (Reuters)
  • Stock-Market Tumult Exposes Flaws in Modern Markets (WSJ)
  • Dollar gains as stocks recover, lessens safe-haven bid for yen (Reuters)
 
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A Postcard From Puerto Rico





Not what you were expecting...

 
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FOMC Minutes Leaked Early After Embargo Broken, Fed Warns Risk To GDP Forecast "Tilted To The Downside"





Seconds ago, someone accidentally (we hope) pulled a Janet Yellen as the following just came across the wires

FOMC MINUTES: MEMB 'GENERALLY AGREED' MORE INFO NEEDED TO HIKE
FOMC MINUTES: NO TIP TOWARDS SEPT LIFTOFF, DOESN'T RULE IT OUT

But the bottom line is that the Fed just admitted things are going from bad to worse: "The risks to the forecast for real GDP and inflation were seen as tilted to the downside." The question now is what comes first: QE4 or the first rate hike in nearly a decade.

 
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Frontrunning: August 12





  • China central bank under pressure to weaken yuan further (Reuters)
  • Currency Rout Goes Global as Jen Sees Risk of 50% Loss on China (BBG)
  • Europe Stocks Fall Most in Two Weeks as China Sparks Growth Fear (BBG)
  • German Yields Drop to Record as China Boosts Bonds Around World (BBG)
  • FT to Japan, Economist to Italy: Agnelli Family Raises Stake in Economist as Pearson Exits (BBG)
  • Goldman Sachs to Give Out ‘Secret Sauce’ on Trading (WSJ)
  • Greece's Preliminary Bailout Deal Faces German Turbulence (BBG)
 
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"They'll Blame Physical Gold Holders For The Failure Of Monetary Policies" Marc Faber Explains Everything





"The future is unknown and we are not dealing with markets that are free markets anymore...now we have government interventions everywhere. [But] in the last say twelve months, I have observed an increasing number of academics who are questioning monetary policies. That's why I think they will take the gold away and go back to some gold standard by revaluing the gold say from now $1000/oz to say $10,000 dollars. An individual should definitely own some physical gold. The bigger question is where should he store it? because... the failure of monetary policies will not be admitted by the professors that are at central banks, they will then go and blame someone else for it and then an easy target would be to blame it on people that own physical gold because - they can argue - well these are the ones that do take money out of circulation and then the velocity of money goes down - we have to take it away from them... That has happened in 1933 in the US."

 
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Economic Reality Now Catching Up To Market Fantasy





In a murky world of market fantasy, our first guideposts are the fundamentals themselves. Supply and demand can be misrepresented for a time through manipulated statistics, but the tangible effects of decline cannot be. Our secondary guideposts are the paths that internationalists and central banks bulldoze through the fiscal forest. To anyone with any sense, the endgame is clear: Total centralization is the goal, and economic fear is the tool they hope to use to get there. We have written on numerous solutions to this threat in past articles; but the first and most important action is for each of us to acknowledge, wholeheartedly, that the system we know is ending. It is over. What replaces that system will either be up to us or up to them. Only by admitting that there is an end to the fantasy, a painful end, will we then be able to help determine our future reality.

 
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Hedge Fund Horrors: First Einhorn Has Worst Month Since 2008, Now Paulson Getting Redeemed





"The wealth management arm of Bank of America Merrill Lynch is liquidating its clients’ money from one of Paulson & Company’s funds and has put another fund under "heightened review,'" NY Times reports. As it turns out, this was not the year to be long Greece and Puerto Rico. 

 
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Frontrunning: August 4





  • Unhappy Voters Shake Up Presidential Race (WSJ)
  • China stock exchanges step up crackdown on short-selling (Reuters)
  • China Dethroned as World’s Most Liquid Stock Market After Curbs (BBG)
  • Xiaomi retakes the smartphone lead in China as Apple slips (Engadget)
  • Impact of EPA’s Emissions Rule on Industry to Vary (WSJ)
  • Citadel’s Ken Griffin Leaves 2008 Tumble Far Behind (WSJ)
  • Greece says expects bailout deal by Aug 18 (Reuters)
 
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Greek Banks Crash Limit Down For Second Day; China And Commodities Rebound; US Futures Slide





After a lukewarm start by the Chinese "market", which had dropped for the past 6 out of 7 days despite ever escalating measures by Beijing to manipulate stocks higher, finally the Shanghai Composite reacted favorably to Chinese micromanagement of stock prices and closed 3.7% higher as Chinese regulators stepped up their latest measures by adjusting rules on short-selling in order to reduce trading frequency and price volatility, resulting in several large brokerages suspending short sell operations. At this pace only buy orders will soon be legal which just may send the farce of what was once a "market" limit up.

 
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First Default By U.S. Commonwealth In History: Puerto Rico Fails To Make Required Debt Payment





"Due to the lack of appropriated funds for this fiscal year the entirety of the PFC payment was not made today. This was a decision that reflects the serious concerns about the Commonwealth's liquidity in combination with the balance of obligations to our creditors and the equally important obligations to the people of Puerto Rico to ensure the essential services they deserve are maintained."

 
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Frontrunning: August 3





  • Deadline Draws Near for Puerto Rico (WSJ)
  • U.S. to defend Syrian rebels with airpower, including from Assad (Reuters)
  • Alpha Natural Resources to Seek Chapter 11 (WSJ)
  • Iran’s Rouhani Says Nuclear Deal ‘More Than What Was Imagined’ (BBG)
  • Cables Show Hillary Clinton's State Department Deeply Involved in Trans-Pacific Partnership (IBTimes)
  • Win or Lose, U.S. Stocks Get Biggest Earnings Bang Since ’12 (BBG)
  • Weaker China factories argue for more policy support as stocks swoon (Reuters)
 
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11 Red Flags As We Enter The Pivotal Month Of August 2015





Things are unfolding in textbook fashion for another major global financial crisis in the months ahead, and yet most people refuse to see what is happening.  In their blind optimism, they want to believe that things will somehow be different this time.  Well, the coming months will definitely reveal who was right and who was wrong.  The following are 11 red flag events that just happened as we enter the pivotal month of August 2015...

 
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