Puerto Rico

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Frontrunning: September 25

  • Global Markets Rebound on Yellen Speech (WSJ)
  • Obama and Putin to meet; Syria and Ukraine vie for attention (Reuters)
  • Obama to host China's President Xi amid simmering tensions (Reuters)
  • Don't Fall for It, Xi! Chinese Take to Web to Scorn U.S.—and China, Too (BBG)
  • Yellen Confirms Fed Still on Track to Raise Rates This Year (BBG)... but is still China dependent?
  • Abe's New Economic Plan Confounds Analysts (BBG)
  • It's All `Perverted' Now as U.S. Swap Spreads Tumble Below Zero (BBG)
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Bill Gross' Latest: "Mainstream America Is Being Slowly Cooked Alive"

"Mainstream America with their 401Ks are in a similar pickle. Expecting 8-10% to pay for education, healthcare, retirement or simply taking an accustomed vacation, they won’t be doing much of it as long as short term yields are at zero. They are not so much in a pickle barrel as they are on a revolving spit, being slowly cooked alive while central bankers focus on their Taylor models and fight non-existent inflation."

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Frontrunning: September 10

  • Compare: S&P 500 Futures Advance After U.S. Stocks Ignored Global Rally (BBG)
  • And contrast: Global Stock Rally Grinds to a Halt (BBG)
  • And be very confused: Global Stocks Lower on U.S. Interest Rate Uncertainty (WSJ)
  • Hilsenrath: Fed Wavers on September Rate Rise (WSJ)
  • Time for more QE: Abe Adviser Says Next Month Good Opportunity for BOJ Easing (BBG)
  • Brazil downgraded to junk rating by S&P, deepening woes (Reuters)
  • Kiwi dollar tumbles after New Zealand cuts interest rates (Reuters)
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Puerto Rico To Run Out Of Cash By Year End, Faces $13 Billion Shortfall

Remember when two months ago Schauble, jokingly, offered Jack Lew to "trade" Greece for Puerto Rico? Something tells us in the interim period the German finmin changed his mind because while the Greek can has been kicked again, if only for the time being until bailout #4, the full severity of the Puerto Rican insolvency was laid out for all to see moments ago when top officials and outside advisors to the commonwealth released a highly-anticipated report showing that island's whopping funding gap of $28 billion will at best be reduced to "only" $13 billion over the next several years. Worse: according to the report of the so-called Working Group, the Treasury’s single cash account and Government Development Bank would exhaust available liquidity before the end of the year

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Frontrunning: September 3

  • U.S. Treasury's Lew says China will be held accountable on currency (Reuters) ... but not Japan
  • Bank of Japan Not Convinced of Need for Further Easing (WSJ)
  • Stocks Advance With Commodities on Signs of European Revival (BBG)
  • IMF Says China Slowdown, Other Risks Threaten Global Outlook (WSJ)
  • Xi Says China No Threat, Announces Military Cuts at Parade (BBG)
  • China holds massive military parade, to cut troop levels by 300,000 (Reuters)
  • Migrants leave Budapest for Austrian frontier; pressure builds for EU action (Reuters)
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Frontrunning: August 31

  • Hilsenrath: Fed Appears to Hold Line on Rate Plan (WSJ)
  • Europe, Asia stocks set for worst monthly drop in three years on China, Fed (Reuters)
  • Beijing abandons large-scale share purchases (FT), if only for a few hours
  • China’s Next Problem: Paying for Its Stock-Market Bailout (WSJ)
  • Crises Put First Dents in Xi Jinping’s Power (WSJ)
  • Man Group’s China Chief Said to Assist Police in Probe (BBG)
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Frontrunning: August 28

  • Stock Halts Added to Monday’s Market Chaos (WSJ)
  • Fed Up Investors Yank Cash From Almost Everything Just Like 2008 (BBG)
  • Drop in Stock Futures Signal Halt to S&P 500's Relief Rally (BBG) - at least until the BOJ ramps USDJPY up again
  • Hacker Killed by Drone Was Islamic State’s ‘Secret Weapon’ (WSJ)
  • Greece's Syriza to win election but face setback, poll shows (Reuters)
  • Puerto Rico Spends More Than $60 Million on Debt Restructuring (BBG)
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No Discussion Of Economic Outlook In Bill Dudley Speech, Attention Turns To Q&A

Perhaps the biggest market moving event of the day, more so than the Durables data, was Bill Dudley's speech. However, at least based on the prepared remarks there is no discussion of the economy. From Bloomerg. Now all eyes turn to the Q&A which is where any questions relevant to the recent move in markets will most likely emerge.

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Frontrunning: August 26

  • Global Stocks Struggle to Shrug Off China Fears (WSJ)
  • Brief Respite Ends for European Stocks Amid Renewed Retreat (BBG)
  • Stock futures rise after China injects $21.8 billion (Reuters)
  • China turmoil needn't rattle BOJ, yen rise not a worry: Abe adviser (Reuters)
  • Stock-Market Tumult Exposes Flaws in Modern Markets (WSJ)
  • Dollar gains as stocks recover, lessens safe-haven bid for yen (Reuters)
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A Postcard From Puerto Rico

Not what you were expecting...

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FOMC Minutes Leaked Early After Embargo Broken, Fed Warns Risk To GDP Forecast "Tilted To The Downside"

Seconds ago, someone accidentally (we hope) pulled a Janet Yellen as the following just came across the wires


But the bottom line is that the Fed just admitted things are going from bad to worse: "The risks to the forecast for real GDP and inflation were seen as tilted to the downside." The question now is what comes first: QE4 or the first rate hike in nearly a decade.

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Frontrunning: August 12

  • China central bank under pressure to weaken yuan further (Reuters)
  • Currency Rout Goes Global as Jen Sees Risk of 50% Loss on China (BBG)
  • Europe Stocks Fall Most in Two Weeks as China Sparks Growth Fear (BBG)
  • German Yields Drop to Record as China Boosts Bonds Around World (BBG)
  • FT to Japan, Economist to Italy: Agnelli Family Raises Stake in Economist as Pearson Exits (BBG)
  • Goldman Sachs to Give Out ‘Secret Sauce’ on Trading (WSJ)
  • Greece's Preliminary Bailout Deal Faces German Turbulence (BBG)
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"They'll Blame Physical Gold Holders For The Failure Of Monetary Policies" Marc Faber Explains Everything

"The future is unknown and we are not dealing with markets that are free markets anymore...now we have government interventions everywhere. [But] in the last say twelve months, I have observed an increasing number of academics who are questioning monetary policies. That's why I think they will take the gold away and go back to some gold standard by revaluing the gold say from now $1000/oz to say $10,000 dollars. An individual should definitely own some physical gold. The bigger question is where should he store it? because... the failure of monetary policies will not be admitted by the professors that are at central banks, they will then go and blame someone else for it and then an easy target would be to blame it on people that own physical gold because - they can argue - well these are the ones that do take money out of circulation and then the velocity of money goes down - we have to take it away from them... That has happened in 1933 in the US."

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