Quantitative Easing

We're All Yen Traders Now

At almost 90% of GDP, the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet is just bat shit crazy! No other way to describe it...

If An Electorate Falls In The Forest, Is Their Voice Heard?

If there’s one lesson Europeans can glean from their allies across the Atlantic, it’s that bullets can be dodged, but not indefinitely. As we are learning the hard way, necessary reforms are challenging to enact. Avoidance, though, will only succeed in feeding anger and despair. The longer the voices of the desperate go unheard, as just so many silently falling trees in the forest, the more piercing their cries will be in the end.

"The Fed Is Once Again Making A Policy Error"

"I must admit, I am a little surprised the Fed's goal of withdrawing accommodation without having the whole financial system come crashing down has gone so smoothly. But I wonder if the Federal Reserve isn’t pushing their luck..."

So Many Triggers

The question is not “if” but “when.” In the end, it will matter little which trigger it will be, as, like a string of firecrackers, when one explodes, a chain reaction is set off.

The End Game

"..the debt problem is so pervasive, there is only way one forward - inflate... They will do anything (and everything) to ensure the financial system doesn’t implode on itself... They will keep printing until the bond market takes the keys away."

What Could Possibly Go Wrong? - Why This Time Is Not Different

In the 1990s, stocks continued to rise relentlessly for years, even after then Fed Chair Greenspan warned of irrational exuberance in late 1996.  Last decade, the rally in home prices continued as ever more people appeared convinced that home prices never fall.  This time around, we are eight years into a bull market. As in those times, investors have all but given up betting against conventional wisdom...but this time is not different...

"They're Baaack! And Why You Should Be Worried – Very Worried"

"This is the moment in time where generic, over simplified advice, that sounds so good (and too good) shouted too an adoring crowd  – should be taken as the siren, and clarion call to those who are diligent in preserving their wealth to buckle up, buckle down, and prepare in earnest."

The Echo Chamber Of Elite Economists: Often Wrong, Never In Doubt

Despite what appears to be an inflection point of radical change, most of which remains unknown, the consensus opinion of professional economists and markets, in general, are well-aligned, optimistic and seemingly convinced about how the economy and markets will evolve throughout the year.  The consensus forecast based upon an assessment of economic projections from major financial institutions appears to be the result of a Ph.D. echo chamber, not rigorous independent analysis.