- Shares bounce, euro fades after savage ECB reaction (Reuters)
- Trump's Islam comments draw attacks as Republicans discover civility (Reuters)
- Oil Prices Rise on Hopes Glut Will Ease (WSJ)
- IEA Says Oil Price May Have Bottomed as High-Cost Producers Cut (BBG)
- Why Euro-Area Inflation Will Be Low for Years, According to Draghi (BBG)
- Calmer markets, positive data prime Fed to push ahead with rate rises (Reuters)
Will today be central bankers' Waterloo? We'll see, as Mario Draghi stares down sky-high expectations for ECB easing.
Global stocks and U.S. equity futures are fractionally higher (unchanged really) this morning (despite China's historic NPL debt-for-equity proposal) as traders await the main event of the day: the ECB's 1:45pm CET announcement, more importantly what Mario Draghi will announce during the 2:30pm CET press conference, and most importantly, whether he will disappoint as he did in December or finally unleash the bazooka that the market has been desperately demanding.
Many investors today are not very familiar with market history and tend to live only in the day-to-day mainstream narrative while watching little red and green graphs move up and down. This is not so much an issue in a relatively stable economic environment. The problem is, today we live in the most unstable economic conditions possible.
The European Central Bank promised in January to "review and reconsider" its monetary stance this week. The question, as BloombergBriefs notes, is not if policy makers will ease but how. Haruhiko Kuroda's humbling in FX markets shows what Mario Draghi is up against tomorrow: namely, that even the most forceful policy decisions can be overwhelmed by events, positioning, or sentiment. Draghi has a number of options (some more and some less priced in) but most crucially there two large gaps to be filled in European Stock indices - the question is which is filled first?
The world financial system is booby-trapped with unprecedented anomalies, deformations and contradictions. It’s not remotely stable or safe at any speed, and most certainly not at the rate at which today’s robo-machines and fast money traders pivot, whirl, reverse and retrace. Indeed, every day there are new ructions in the casino that warn investors to get out of harm’s way with all deliberate speed. And last night’s eruption in the Japanese bond market was a doozy.
With China's Plunge Protection Team having intervened and set a positive spin on another poor session, traders put declines in Asia behind them as European markets rose along with U.S. index futures and commodities. European shares advanced for the first time in three days on speculation the region’s central bank will ramp up monetary stimulus on Thursday. A gauge of raw materials rebounded from its biggest selloff in a month, buoyed by gains in oil and copper. Furthermore, the previously noted selloff in Japanese government bonds - one which triggered circuit breakers and which some speculated may have been precipitated by the BOJ itself - dragged Treasuries and German bunds lower, gold fell a second day and the euro dropped versus most of its major peers.
In late January, when Haruhiko Kuroda took Japan into NIRP, he made it official. He was full-everything. Full-Krugman. Full-Keynes. Full-post-crisis-central-banker-retard. Now, he's managed to ease and expand his way into a contractionary tightening.
Call us old fashioned, but we still think prices matter. When prices are right, money flows to the most productive endeavors and economies work efficiently. When prices are wrong, crazy things eventually happen, with potentially dire consequences. That’s why we should be very worried about Japan, where things are getting crazy.
While conventional wisdom suggests that US government bond yields have nowhere to go but up, we believe the economic fundamentals will continue to weigh on interest rates for the foreseeable future.
Indeed, what party other than the BOJ could be buying negative coupon debt? The answer is exactly why the coming financial crash will be so severe and long-lasting. To wit, it is front-runners expecting to cop a capital gain, and then get out before the house of cards collapses. That’s what might otherwise be called an ambush. The trillions of speculator dollars crowded into trades of this type throughout the global financial markets will never get through the narrow door of liquidity that remains in the casinos. The dotcom and the post-Lehman meltdowns were only the rehearsal.
Oil prices should fall, possibly hard, in coming weeks. That is because fundamentals do not support the present price.
"They Blew It All On Hookers, Blow And Fancy Toys" – Hedgie Sees Lower Oil, Soaring Gold, & QE For The PeopleSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/07/2016 21:00 -0400
"...most people simply assumed the good times would go on forever... because it was different this time. But like any uninhibited party fueled by unlimited cash, the hangover was sure to follow."
The cracks are starting to appear in the 'paper' gold market.