Quantitative Easing

"It's Going To Be A Long Summer" One Trader Warns No One, Not Even The Fed, Believe Their Own Forecasts

It was fun while it lasted. For a few brief months, The Fed appeared to 'hawkish, no matter what' as data-dependent morphed into data-ignorant. Markets relished the confidence-inpiring message from the ivory tower academics... but, as former FX trader Rich Breslow notes, none of that occurred in reality and now, "no one really believes even their own forecasts," adding that, as markets wake up to this reality, "it's going to be a long summer."

US Equities: Unwinding The Yellen Leveraged Buyout

"Corporate credit spreads are the key indicator to watch, both in terms of the economy and the financial markets.  It’s a game of financial musical chairs. Ray Dalio, Janet Yellen and all of us are dancing.  When does the music stop?"

Why One Trader Is Buying European Stocks Again

"I am re-establishing my long Eurostoxx position. However, I will do it on a spread basis versus S&P 500. I don’t feel comfortable owning risk assets up here, and the only way I can bring myself to write some blue tickets, is to have some pinks on the other side."

The Breaking Point & Death Of Keynes

The Keynesian model died in 1980. It’s time for those driving both monetary and fiscal policy to wake up and smell the burning of the dollar. We are at war with ourselves and the games being played out by Washington to maintain the status quo is slowing creating the next crisis that won’t be fixed with another monetary bailout.

The Fed Has An Alarming Low-Inflation Problem

With all the talk of central bank hawkishness in the last week, one might assume there was some inflation to point to. It is quite the opposite. It is one thing to talk about inflation being below the Fed’s target of 2%, it is an entirely different issue to see it flirting with deflation!

When "Whatever It Takes" Ends

"This is tantamount to holding a beach ball underwater.  You know what happens when when the ball is released.  Such as when a prominent central banker unexpectedly speaks out that the days of holding that ball underwater may be coming to an end.  We just had a little taste of that this week."

Is This Why The Fed Is Raising Rates???

As the Fed is in the midst of a rate hike cycle, it seems important to remember why this cycle is like no previous rate hike cycle.  The mechanics of this hiking cycle are completely unique and experimental...thus the outcome is far more of an unknown than "normal".

Will Central Banks Derail The Shale Boom?

The U.S. Federal Reserve has already increased interest rates several times, most recently in June, with promises to do much more. Rate hikes pose a problem for the oil industry, which has used debt to underpin a drilling boom across the U.S. shale patch. Higher rates could raise the cost of drilling.