It's easy to find critics and doomsayers who predict that the next stock market crash is just around the corner. They could be right, but another possibility is that the stock market itself will disappear entirely. The number of common stocks traded on major U.S. exchanges are the fewest in three decades. This is the end game of unfettered capitalism. The signs are all here.
On the verge of running out of bond to monetize, the ECB has engaged in something fed had expected: it is buying bonds from itself. But according to a troubling Reuters "trial balloon" that may be just the beginning: as Reuters writes, the "ECB may soon be forced to follow the Bank of Japan's example and buy equities as part of any expanded stimulus programme."
September will be quite a busy month for investors since there are around 30 major central banks meetings scheduled. Since the Bank of England’s last policy announcement, the total monthly amount in global official quantitative easing has reached almost $200 billion, which corresponds, for the purpose of comparison, to Portugal’s annual GDP in 2015. Long-rumoured and oft-discussed, QE infinity is now a reality.
"We have come to a point in time where you are causing more harm than good... You are once again creating complacency with your words. .. This is damaging to our society. This is damaging to our culture. This is damaging to our psyche."
To the academics, “gloom” is irrational and thus requires translation into math to become somehow backwards explanatory for why the economy that “should be” isn’t. In the actual economy, “gloom” is properly called reality. In this world, people know all-too-well that jobs disappeared during and after the Great Recession and never came back. No amount of asset price manipulation can possibly make up that difference.This math is finally welcoming economists to that long run, a place their patron saint, Keynes, said didn’t exist.
QE was never a cure but simply a means to extend and pretend just a bit longer. Could it be the pretending and extending have hit some sort of limit and the Fed fears the next Fed administered "cure" may kill the patient?
"Japan's monetary authorities should intervene in the currency market not to change the yen's general course but to discourage speculators" Koichi Hamada, an emeritus professor of economics at Yale University, told Reuters in an interview. "If Japan's currency intervention is considered manipulation of exchange rates, BOJ buying of foreign bonds is an option for the same objective in a moderate form."
Central banks can only do one thing, and that's provide monetary welfare for the wealthy. Wake up, America. The only way to stop widening wealth and income inequality and kick your smack addiction is to eliminate the pusher.
BRICS is in a coma. What’s surviving is RC: the Russia/China strategic partnership. Yet even the partnership seems to be in trouble – with Russia still attacked by myriad metastases of Hybrid War. The – Exceptionalist – Hegemon remains powerful, and the opposition is dazed and confused. Or is it?
"I think a move has begun... When you have bonds at negative interest rates you know there’s something fundamentally wrong with the economy. That’s a statement of the relative safeness of currencies... when people actually feel they can buy that bond and pay money to keep it in that bond just because it’s a safer haven than other investments then that’s pretty bad."
Would fate permit it, the election of Hillary Clinton will be the supreme and perhaps terminal act in an Anything-Goes-And-Nothing-Matters society. Her reward in office may be to dodge indictment for four years while the nation crumbles around her. This is the way the world ends: not with a bang or a whimper but with a cackle.
The Federal Reserve’s long-term influence hinges in part on its ability to convince millennials that its current policies can help push inflation closer to the central bank’s 2% goal. That’s not as easy as it sounds, because this cohort has both a different history and current relationship with this economic variable. Why?
... what we are looking at is a flawed system that penalizes saving and encourages reckless spending and printing money. Although we all appear to be stuck in the same environment that combines negative interest rates and price inflation, we have the lower strata of society that is doomed to lose, as they end up spending more, discouraged by negative rates, and instead accumulate debt to keep up with the increasing prices. And then we have the “winners”, who know how to take advantage of the system and thrive in it...
The title of this year’s Jackson Hole meeting – “Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future” – is a telling one. It is actually a call to a specific goal, rather than the typical generic one. You get the feeling that the Fed has something on its mind... Translation: Fed projections have been wrong, and the central bank doesn’t know how to make them any better in the future.
"...the only way gold loses is if normal business and private sector cycles come back. If that is the case, gold goes back 100 dollars per ounce. The other outcomes, deflation, stagflation, hyperinflation are good for gold...If people become more confident, gold will ease back. But when the chickens come home to roost, gold will come back..."