Overnight Barclays looked at the link between the current state of corporate profits, plunging by 60bps, and the broader economic cycle. It used data set stretching to the last seven business cycles, dating back to 1973, and found that on 5 out of 6 occasions, such a drop in margins resulted in a recession. In Barclays' own words: "the results are not encouraging for the economy or the market."
The popular belief that the U.S. economy has been steadily recovering has endured months of disappointing data without losing much of its appeal. But the downright dismal September jobs report that was released last Friday may prove to be the flashing red beacon that even the most skilled apologists can't explain away. But rather than questioning the Fed's credibility in missing another forecast, most economists are lauding it for supposedly seeing weakness that others missed, which allowed it to wisely do nothing in September. But this is simply a continuation of the Fed's long-standing playbook: Talk the economy up through optimistic statements while continually holding off an actual rate hike that the Fed is concerned could undermine an economy teetering on the brink of recession.
"There’s a lack of faith in monetary policy -- you’ve thrown the kitchen sink at it, you’ve cut rates to zero, you’re printing money -- and still inflation is lower. I think this is a dangerous situation if people perceive that it has the responsibility and it doesn’t have the tools."
Japan has a nigh endless supply of insane Keynesians doing the same thing over and over and over again. But support is now growing around the world for the next round ofspending to be funded by “People’s QE.” The idea behind “People’s QE” is that central banks would directly fund government spending... and even inject money directly into household bank accounts, if need be. And the idea is catching on. That’s the monster coming to towns and villages near you! Call it “overt monetary financing.” Call it “money from helicopters.” Call in “insane.” But it won’t be unpopular. Who will protest when the feds begin handing our money to “mid- and low-income households”?
The results from Portugal's elections are beginning to trickle in and according to exit polls, Coelho's coalition has prevailed. According to Bloomberg, the ruling coalition of Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho has won 38%-43% of vote and 108-116 seats.
“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”
"It's obvious the U.S. is headed for deep deflation, hurt by the strong dollar... The Fed raising rates in this environment is not only ridiculous but harmful. U.S. stocks are plunging, not because of the prospect of a Fed rate hike, but to prevent it."
According to the Fed, there is about $60 trillion of US Dollar credit or claims for US dollars. Also according to the Fed, there are about $12 trillion US dollars. So, the data show plainly there are five times as many claims for US dollars as US dollars in existence. Does this matter to investors? Well, yes, it matters a lot.
But the question remains whether financial condition concern should manifest itself through unemployment and inflation dual mandate forecasts or be a separate consideration all together? To me, the danger in the latter is it turns central bankers into traders and market timers and that is something they are unlikely to have trained for
Most people believe that low oil prices are good for the United States, since the discretionary income of consumers will rise. There is the added benefit that Peak Oil must be far off in the distance, since “Peak Oilers” talked about high oil prices. Thus, low oil prices are viewed as an all around benefit. In fact, nothing could be further from the truth...
If Congress understood the Austrian theory of the business cycle, it would have allowed the recession that followed the housing bubble’s inevitable collapse to run its course. Recessions are the economy’s way of eliminating the distortions caused by the Federal Reserve. Attempts by Congress and the Fed to end a recession via inflation and government spending will only lead to future, and more severe, economic downturns.
We call on central banks to abolish their zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) framework before more harm is done. In our assessment, ZIRP is bad for all stakeholders and may even lead to war.
The U.S. dollar is looking good worldwide and, in fact, so is gold - it’s just that, at present, the dollar is in the number one spot. But, unlike gold, the dollar is at risk. U.S. debt has placed it in a precarious position from which it will most certainly fall. The dollar is not a truly strong currency; it is essentially, “the best looking horse in the glue factory.” It will be the last to go, but it will indeed go. We may have a bit of time before that happens. Whether it’s measured in months or years, we can’t be certain. A gold mania is not imminent, but we believe it is inevitable.
August's regional Fed survey collapse was unanimous... Dallas, Richmond, New York, Philly, Chicago, and even Kansas City all flashing recessionary warnings. And so now we begin to see September's data and Dallas Fed prints -9.5 - the 9th negative (contractionary) print in a row. While a small beat (against -10 exp.) and rise from August's -15.8, under the surfacxe the data is a disaster with wages lower, employees contracting drastically, and average workweek collapsing. Having noted that "the quantitative easing hangover is starting" in August, it appears - judging by the biggest plunge in Capex in 5 years.