RANSquawk

FX Week Ahead: Highlights Include FOMC, BOC And OPEC

Politics dominate yet again, as focus on Comey testimony set to determine Trump and USD fate.  Fed minutes and OPEC meeting on the same day with the BoC thrown in!  EUR on the front foot and leading the pack as growth and inflation stats heighten tapering expectations, greenback flagging.

A Technical Look At The FX Week Ahead

All eyes on Sunday’s French election result, but little evidence of defensive positioning in the EUR. GBP continues to fly the flag, batting off the negative mood over the latest Brexit exchanges. Commodities in focus, but tentative signs of some near term relief. CAD overstretched. US jobs report mixed at best.

April Payrolls Preview: "It Better Be Good"

After the abysmal March labor report, all we - and the Fed - can say is that April better be good, or else Yellen's claim of "transitory weakness" will simply be the latest nail in the coffin of Fed credibility. Here is the consensus for the key numbers the BLS will report at 8:30am ET on Friday morning.

FOMC Minutes Preview

With the March FOMC Minutes due out shortly. here are the key items to focus on.

"It Can Only Disappoint" - What Wall Street Expects From Today's Jobs Report

If wages disappoint for the second month in a row, then markets may begin to ease back their hiking expectations for the rest of the year. For markets to price out a rate hike in March, wage growth would probably need to slow markedly and the headline NFP number to fall well below 100K.

ECB Preview: Don't Expect Fireworks Yet

Little is expected from the rate decision itself at 1245GMT with analysts firmly expecting the central bank to stand pat on rates. With regards to the press conference, any indications that the ECB are taking a more neutral stance or that the ECB are beginning to think about curtailing existing policy given recent economic development, is likely to be seen as a hawkish factor for European assets.

A Technical Preview Of The Week Ahead: What The Charts Say

For the technical analysis fans among our readers, we are delighted to present you with the following 9 minute summary, courtesy of our friends at RanSquawk, laying out some of the most notable charts and pattern formations among various assets classes, with an emphasis on breaking out equities, as well as rates, commodities, and of course FX.

Global Stocks Rise, S&P Futures Make New Record Highs As "Trump Trade" Euphoria Returns

European and Asian stocks, S&P futures, bond yields, the dollar and commodity metals are rose, in some cases making new all time highs, lifted by the latest reemergence of the "Trump trades" as hopeful investors once again bet that the U.S. president's tax reform plans will boost economic growth and corporate profits, despite another warning from Goldman that the president's fiscal plan is about to be derailed.

What Wall Street Expects From Today's Payrolls Reports

With all eyes likely on wage growth indications in the subtext of tomorrow's payrolls report (following The Fed Minutes' comments on full employment), Goldman Sachs is forecasting a better-than-expected 0.3% rebound in average hourly earnings (helped by more favorable calendar effects) and a better-than-expected 180k payrolls print (albeit with a small rise in the unemployment rate). However, they are careful to note that any downside can be blamed on "a considerable drop in temperatures."

European Stocks Soar, US Futures, Euro Jump After Failed Italian Referendum

Another miraculous overnight recovery has eliminated all the bearish aftertaste from the failed Italian referendum. As Guillermo Sampere of MPPM EK put it: "After Brexit, it took three days for markets to shake it off, with Trump it took three hours, with Italy it took three minutes.The fast money, who expected markets to fall further with this outcome, are now covering their positions."