• Tim Knight from...
    09/19/2014 - 20:15
    I was originally going to title this post "Jackie DeAngelis Must Die", but I thought she might take it the wrong way.

RANSquawk

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RANsquawk - Weekly Wrap - 19th September 2014





 
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Dollar, Futures Resume Ramp On Both Hawkish And Dovish Yellen Announcement





Yesterday's market reaction to Yellen's commentary was curious: there was none, because when all was said and done the S&P and DJIA traded precisely where they traded just before the show began.  Which, of course, was unacceptable, because one way or another the hawkish for the USD - the USDJPY just traded at the highest since 2008 - statement and conference had to be promptly interpreted for the algos as dovish for stocks - Futures are again just why of record highs - if not so much for the Fed-hated bonds, and sure enough, European equities traded in the green from the get-go even as RanSquawk notes, "there has been no major fundamental catalyst behind the spike higher seen in the morning, although do note that the move comes in the backdrop of the positive close on Wall Street which saw the S&P 500 (+0.13%) touch record highs before paring a large portion of the gains." In other words, the upside volatility in the intraday move is now a bullish catalyst, closing print notwithstanding. And what did US equity futures do? Why they followed Europe higher, with the ES now +8, on what is "explained" as a European move to intraday US futures previously. That, ladies and gentlemen, means we may have finally achieved perpetual motion, because all that would take to send the market higher is... for the market to go higher, etc, ad inf.

 
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RANsquawk Preview: FOMC Decision - 17th September 2014





 
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RANsquawk - Week Ahead - 15th September 2014





 
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RANsquawk Weekly Wrap - 12th September 2014





 
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Futures Flat On Russia Sanctions Round 3 Day





While today's key news event will likely be the preannounced latest, third, round of anti-Russian sanctions and the Russian retaliation, the reality as DB notes, is that the market seems to be seeing "some fatigue" in this story with the ECB, Scotland and next week's Fed meeting taking center stage. As a result, and ahead of expectations of change in Fed language which should carry a more hawkish tone, the dollar has been bid up some more overnight, leading to fresh multi-year highs in the USDJPY, and the now-paired TSY trade, with 10Y yields up to 2.57%, although this may now be in short-term oversold territory. The latest Scottish poll appears to have dented some of the "Yes" momentum, with 52% of the polled saying they would vote No in the referendum, although right now neither side has a clear majority when factoring in the undecideds: which means it will come down to the wire next week, with clear implications for Europe's secessionist movements if the Yes vote still manages to prevail, not to mention massive ramifications for the UK.

 
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Futures Slide On Renewed Catalan Independence Jitters, Disappointing Chinese Inflation





Following yesterday's confusing exuberance, which saw the sluggish market rise in the last hours of trading as the latest Scottish poll showed a reverse of the "Yes" momentum (and fading Gartman's latest reco of course), overnight European jitters have re-emerged once more following a speech by Catalonia's Artur Mas, who has long pushed for independence of the region, and who said that while there are different ways Catalonia can vote, the important issue is that Catalans vote somehow. Mas says Spanish govt will likely try to block Catalan vote "the reasons why the central government is blocking the vote are political not legal", which in turn has once again brought attention to Europe's artificial, unstable and temporary political and monetary union, which threatens a reversion of the nightmare days from 2012 when Mario Draghi was promising he would do everything in his power to send the EUR higher (as opposed to now).

 
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AAPL Stock Fades On 'Apple Watch' Unveiling





It's square with a metal band, rotating dial...

*APPLE INTRODUCES 'APPLE WATCH' WITH SMALL DIAL ON THE SIDE FOR ZOOM, SCROLLING

It appears the market is disappointed in the watch and loved the payments...

 
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Apple Set To Unveil iPhone Galaxy S6 Wearable Headphone Mobile Payment System - Live Feed





Here we go... Icahn's been adding and everyone's excited about a bigger screen (like Samsung), an iWatch (like Motorola and Samsung), payments (like NFC on Samsung phones), Health (like Samsung), or whatever magic Tim Cook and his 'innovators' have in store. Apple's launch of iPhone 6 et al. will take place shortly...

 
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Scottish Independence Referendum: The Complete Summary





For those just catching up on the main news event of the weekend, namely the sudden surge in Scotland "Yes" vote polling surpassing 50% for the first time, here is a complete round up of the background, updates and expert reactions from RanSquawk, Bloomberg and AFP.

 
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RANsquawk Week Ahead - 8th September 2014





 
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RANsquawk Weekly Wrap - 5th September 2014





 
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Previewing Today's Nonfarm Payrolls Report





  • Barclays 200K
  • Citigroup 200K
  • Deutsche Bank 200K
  • HSBC 215K
  • JP Morgan 225K
  • UBS 230K
  • Goldman Sachs 240K
  • Morgan Stanley 250K
 
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Futures Slump Ahead Of Nonfarm Payrolls As ECB QE Euphoria Fades





It has been an odd session: after yesterday's unexpected late day swoon despite the ECB launch of "Private QE", late night trading saw a major reversal in USDJPY trading which soared relentlessly until it rose to fresh 6 year highs, briefly printing at 105.70, a level not seen since October 2008, before giving back all gains in overnight trading. It is unclear if it was this drop, or some capital reallocation from the US into Europe, but for whatever reason while Europe has seen a stable - if fading in recent hours - risk bid, and European bonds once again rising and Irish and Italian yields both dropping to record low yield, US equity futures have slumped and are now trading at the lows of the session ahead of a US nonfarm payroll print which is expected to rise and print for the 7th consecutive time above 200K, at 230K to be precise, up from 209K in July (down from 288K in June). It is unclear if the market is in a good news is bad news mood today, but for now the algos are not taking any chances and have exited risky positions, with the ES at the low end of the range the market has been trading in for the past week centered aroun S&P 2000.

 
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