It had been a relatively quiet session overnight when as reported previously, the geopolitical situation in the middle east changed dramatically in a moment, when NATO-member country Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet allegedly over Turkish territory even though the plane crashed in Syria, and whose pilots may have been captured by local rebel forces. The news promptly slammed Turkish assets and FX, sending the Lira tumbling, pushing lower European stocks and US equity futures while sending 2 Year German Bunds to record negative yields.
As a result of the global commodity weakness, global stocks have fallen for the first time in six days as the sell-off in commodities continued, dragging both US equity futures and European stocks lower. However, putting this in context, last week the MSCI All Country World Index posted its biggest weekly gain in six weeks: alas, without a coincident rebound in commodity prices, it will be merely the latest dead cat bounce.
RANsquawk Weekly Wrap - 20th November 2015: This week the Fed minutes kept a Fed December rate hike on the table and ECB President Draghi reiterated his will to aid inflationSubmitted by RANSquawk Video on 11/20/2015 13:41 -0500
While it is still unclear just why the FOMC Minutes which are said to have made a December liftoff "more likely" unleashed a dramatic market rally, one which sent both stocks and TSYs higher, the sentiment continued overnight, with both Asian stocks surging on the US momentum, as well as Europe, where the DAX gapped solidly above the 200 DMA as most European shares advanced, led by resources, travel stocks. U.S. futures continue their ramp higher, and at last check were another 8 points, or 0.4%, in the green. But if the Fed Minutes were enough to unleash the latest leg in this rally, than the ECB's own minutes due also today, should send futures back over 2100 without much difficult, regardless of their actual content.
RANsquawk Preview: The Fed release the minutes from their October meeting as markets look for any indications on the viability of a US Dec'15 rate-hikeSubmitted by RANSquawk Video on 11/17/2015 14:35 -0500
Who would have thought terrorism is so good for stocks.
· The tragic events in Paris are set to dictate price action at the beginning of the week in Europe
· The US sees an increase in tier 1 data this week as well as the release of the minutes from last month’s Fed meeting
The biggest event overnight came from Europe, where Draghi managed to once again jawbone the Euro lower by ober 50 pips when he told European lawmakers in a prepared testimony that downside economic risks are "clearly visible," repeating his October press conference statement, adding that the ECB will reexamine degree of accommodation in December as "inflation dynamics have somewhat weakened." And the statement that crushed the Euro: "If we were to conclude that our medium-term price stability objective is at risk, we would act by using all the instruments available within our mandate to ensure that an appropriate degree of monetary accommodation is maintained." I.e., another "whatever it takes" moment.
For the third day in a row, China dominated the overnight newsflow with the latest industrial output data, which printed at 5.6% missing expectations of a 5.8% increase, and was tied with March for the lowest print since late 2008.
- Fed speakers are likely to take focus in the US this week as market participants attempt to forecast the likelihood of a December FOMC rate lift off
- Eurozone GDP release is the most notable Eurozone data of the week, with a possible downbeat reading increasing the possibility of further easing by the ECB
RANsquawk Weekly Wrap - 6th November 2015: A stellar NFP reading gears up the market for a potential FOMC Dec rate-hikeSubmitted by RANSquawk Video on 11/06/2015 13:50 -0500
- Bank of America 150K
- BNP Paribas 150K
- Morgan Stanley 165K
- Deutsche Bank 175K
- JPMorgan 175K
- HSBC 175K
- UBS 180K
- Goldman Sachs 190K
RANsquawk Preview: The NFP release for October remains in focus as investors assess the probability of a US Dec'15 rate-hikeSubmitted by RANSquawk Video on 11/05/2015 13:17 -0500
Global Rally Continues After PBOC "Unintentionally" Sparks Market Surge With Stale News, Largest 2015 IPO PricesSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 11/04/2015 06:59 -0500
The most entertaining overnight story has to do with the latest farcical development in the Chinese "market" when just after open, it was reported that PBOC Governor Zhou said a trading link with Shenzhen will start this year which promptly sent all Chinese brokerages soaring, and the Shanghai Composite jumped over 3%. And then, out of the blue, the PBOC said the undated comments were actually as of May. As Bloomberg put it, "China’s central bank unintentionally sparked a surge in the nation’s stock market by publishing five-month-old comments from governor Zhou Xiaochuan that said a link between exchanges in Shenzhen and Hong Kong would start in 2015."