RANSquawk

Key Events In The Coming Vacation Week: All About Inflation

With the traditional post-payrolls market lull setting in, and most trading desks taking a week or two off, it will be a relatively quiet week with attention turning to inflation data with releases in the US, China, Norway & Switzerland, a key factor as central banks consider if/when to tighten in the near future.

July Payrolls Preview: Smooth Sailing But Watch Out For Cars

At 8:30am on Friday, the BLS is expected to announce that in July the US created 180K jobs, down from 222K in June though still in line with the 6-month average of 180K, with the biggest downside risk a slowdown in durable manufacturing payrolls as auto production slumped.

RBA Preview: Beware Of Doves, Leaks And Stop Hunts

FX traders will want to keep a close eye on sharp AUDUSD moves seconds before the announcement: on at least one occasion, most famously in April 2015, the RBA statement was leaked in advance, with the entire currency move taking place roughly 7 seconds before the official release.

Q2 GDP Preview

A quick preview of today's key economic release, the US Q2 GDP number due at 8:30am ET, courtesy of the analysts at FX Daily.

FOMC Preview: Just 2 Things To Watch For In Today's Fed Statement

With the market pricing in 0% chance of a July rate hike, and with no Yellen press conference to follow, there are just two things to watch for in today's FOMC statement: (1) any hints that Fed balance sheet reduction will be announced in September and (2) adjustments to the language discussing the recent disappointment in the rate of inflation (after 4 consecutive CPI misses).

Euro Surges To 2-Year High In "Bipolar" Draghi Reaction; Futures Flat

"Draghi tried to talk the Euro down, even going so far as to suggest that ECB’s quantitative easing could be increased and prolonged," said Swissquote Bank's Yann Quelenn. "But the currency markets were not buying Draghi’s line, and neither are we. Available bonds are too scarce, and turn to a taper is too clear to disguise."

"ECB Or Not To Be": A Preview Of What Mario Draghi Will Say

Questions on possible exit scenarios will dominate the press conference. While acknowledging the strength of the economy, Draghi is likely to counter any ideas of an imminent and rapid path towards ending QE, instead urging patience with the still-subdued inflation outlook.

Janet Yellen Is About To Speak: Here's What To Look For

Fed Chair Yellen will be testifying to the House Financial Services committee at 1000EDT, followed by testimony tomorrow before the Senate Banking Committee, however her prepared remarks will be released 90 minutes earlier, at 8:30am. Courtesy of RanSquawk, here are the main things to look for in her prepared testimony as well the subsequent Q&A...

Global Stocks Rise Amid Strong Economic Data; Yen Drops To 2 Month Low As Oil Resumes Slide

In a quiet overnight session, S&P 500 futures are fractionally in the green (2,426, +0.2%) with European and Asian stocks as oil drops second day after an initial ramp higher amid speculation that LIbya and Nigeria may be asked to cap their production. Nasdaq 100 Index are again higher, following the biggest daily advance in more than a week, up 0.4% as of 6:20 a.m. in New York.

June Payrolls Preview: With The Fed On Autopilot, You Can Skip This One

After a poor March jobs report, followed by an April scorcher, then another debacle in May, the June payrolls report due at 8:30am will be... very much irrelevant, because as Citi pointed out earlier, the Fed is now data-indepdendent and will keep hiking until financial conditions finally tighten (read: stocks drop). For what it's worth, here are the consensus expectations for tomorrow's report.