RANSquawk

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: Yellen, Inflation, Durables And GDP

The main releases this week are the durable goods report on Monday, the Q1 GDP revision on Thursday, and the personal income and spending report on Friday. There are also many speaking engagements by Fed officials including a speech by Fed Chair Yellen on Tuesday.

FX Week Ahead Preview: Focus Returns To The US Economy As Politics Run Riot Once Again

FX Week Ahead: Focus returns to the US economy as politics have run riot once again. Theresa May clearly made a big mistake in calling the snap election, and the Pound has suffered accordingly. It is a key week for central banks next week, headlined by the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, which is widely expected to result in a 25bp rate hike as the Fed maintain course for ‘normalisation’. 

May Payrolls Preview: The Tiebreaker

After a poor March jobs report, followed by an April scorcher, the May payrolls report due at 8:30am on Friday will be the tiebreaker, not only for the current state of the economy where both soft and hard data have been deteriorating in recent weeks, but perhaps also for the June rate hike decision, which as the Fed noted in its May FOMC minutes, may not take place without "evidence" that the recent "transitory weakness" in the economy is over.

FX Week Ahead: Highlights Include FOMC, BOC And OPEC

Politics dominate yet again, as focus on Comey testimony set to determine Trump and USD fate.  Fed minutes and OPEC meeting on the same day with the BoC thrown in!  EUR on the front foot and leading the pack as growth and inflation stats heighten tapering expectations, greenback flagging.

A Technical Look At The FX Week Ahead

All eyes on Sunday’s French election result, but little evidence of defensive positioning in the EUR. GBP continues to fly the flag, batting off the negative mood over the latest Brexit exchanges. Commodities in focus, but tentative signs of some near term relief. CAD overstretched. US jobs report mixed at best.

April Payrolls Preview: "It Better Be Good"

After the abysmal March labor report, all we - and the Fed - can say is that April better be good, or else Yellen's claim of "transitory weakness" will simply be the latest nail in the coffin of Fed credibility. Here is the consensus for the key numbers the BLS will report at 8:30am ET on Friday morning.

FOMC Minutes Preview

With the March FOMC Minutes due out shortly. here are the key items to focus on.

"It Can Only Disappoint" - What Wall Street Expects From Today's Jobs Report

If wages disappoint for the second month in a row, then markets may begin to ease back their hiking expectations for the rest of the year. For markets to price out a rate hike in March, wage growth would probably need to slow markedly and the headline NFP number to fall well below 100K.

ECB Preview: Don't Expect Fireworks Yet

Little is expected from the rate decision itself at 1245GMT with analysts firmly expecting the central bank to stand pat on rates. With regards to the press conference, any indications that the ECB are taking a more neutral stance or that the ECB are beginning to think about curtailing existing policy given recent economic development, is likely to be seen as a hawkish factor for European assets.

A Technical Preview Of The Week Ahead: What The Charts Say

For the technical analysis fans among our readers, we are delighted to present you with the following 9 minute summary, courtesy of our friends at RanSquawk, laying out some of the most notable charts and pattern formations among various assets classes, with an emphasis on breaking out equities, as well as rates, commodities, and of course FX.

Global Stocks Rise, S&P Futures Make New Record Highs As "Trump Trade" Euphoria Returns

European and Asian stocks, S&P futures, bond yields, the dollar and commodity metals are rose, in some cases making new all time highs, lifted by the latest reemergence of the "Trump trades" as hopeful investors once again bet that the U.S. president's tax reform plans will boost economic growth and corporate profits, despite another warning from Goldman that the president's fiscal plan is about to be derailed.