• Tim Knight from...
    02/06/2016 - 00:25
    What we must remember is this: we are in a bear market, and the risk of a countertrend rally is present, but confined. The opportunity on the downside movement dwarfs the risk of a push higher, as...
  • Phoenix Capital...
    02/06/2016 - 10:15
    2008 was caused by derivatives based on consumer-focused assets (houses). The next crisis will be driven by derivatives on government-focused assets (bonds).

RANSquawk

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RANsquawk Week Ahead Video





 
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Futures Resume Slide After Oil Tumbles Below $35, Natgas At 13 Year Low; EM, Junk Bond Turmoil Accelerates





With just 72 hours to go until Yellen decides to soak up to $800 billion in liquidity, suddenly we have China and the Emerging Market fracturing, commodities plunging, and junk bonds everywhere desperate to avoid being the next to liquidate.

 
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US Equity Futures Suddenly Fall Off A Cliff As Europe Slides, Oil Tumbles, EM Currencies Turmoil





It was a relatively calm overnight session in which European stocks wobbled modestly, Japan was up, China was down following its weakest fixing since 2011 as the PBOC continues to aggressively devalue since the SDR inclusion (stoking concerns capital outflows are once again surging), EM stocks stocks were weak and the dollar was unchanged ahead of today's retail sales data and next week's Fed meeting, and then suddenly everything snapped.

 
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After Vicious Rollercoaster Session, Global Stocks Flat, US Futures Stage Tepid Rebound In Illiquid Chaos





After yesterday's rollercoaster session in both the S&P and in oil, where initially stocks soared alongside oil, only to promptly tumble as stops were taken out and as the refiners' inventory strategy was exposed after the DOE's latest weekly numbers were released, it has been a quieter session so far, though maybe not for China where stocks jumped at the open only to fizzle and close at the lows in what appears to be ever less intervention by the market manipulating "National Team."

 
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RANsquawk Preview: Focus will be on the BoE's vote split alongside any comments on the UK inflation





 

PREVIEW: BoE December Rate Decision & Minutes Release 1200GMT/0600CST

• All surveyed analysts expect the Bank of England to keep monetary policy unchanged, with the bank rate at 0.5% and the Asset Purchase Facility at GBP 375bln

• Headline UK CPI printed at -0.1% for October, still well below the BoE’s mandated 2% target

 
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RANsquawk Week Ahead Video - Central Banks remain in focus with several rate decisions on the slate this week alongside US data ahead of next weeks FOMC meeting





· Central bank rate decisions take focus this week, with the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Central Bank of Russia all set to announce their latest decision on interest rates

 
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European, Asian Stocks Jump As Iron Ore Joins Oil Below $40 For First Time Since May 2009





With Draghi's Friday comments, which as we noted previously were meant solely to push markets higher, taking place after both Europe and Asia closed for the week, today has been a session of catch up for both Asian and Europe, with Japan and China up 1% and 0.3% respectively, and Europe surging 1.4%, pushing government bond yields lower as the dollar resumes its climb on expectations that Draghi will jawbone the European currency lower once more, which in turn forced Goldman to announce two hours ago that it is "scaling back our expectation for Euro downside."

 
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RANsquawk Preview: Nonfarm Payrolls 4th December 2015





 

November’s NFP release is in strong focus after the stellar reading in October which saw the largest increase this year at 271K additions. Additionally, unemployment is expecting to remain at 5% which will maintain the reading at the lowest level since Apr’08. Furthermore, average hourly earnings are typically in focus due to being a key indicator of wage inflation for the Fed.

 
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RANsquawk Preview: ECB Rate Decision 3rd December 2015





 

In arguably the most important ECB meeting since the introduction of QE, Draghi and Co. are expected by the majority of analysts to act further, with the most likely actions including a cut to the deposit rate and an increase in the Quantitative Easing program. Signalling from the central bank, and particularly Draghi himself over the past month has heavily indicated further stimulus, with Draghi notably saying that `the ECB will do what it needs to in order to raise inflation, as quickly as possible`.

 
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Global Stocks Start Off December With A Bang, US Equity Futures Rebound; Yuan Drops





There was something for everyone in last night's much anticipated Chinese PMI data, with the official number sliding to the lowest in over 3 years, suggesting the PBOC will need to do more stimulus and is thus bullish, while the unoffocial Caixin print rising to the highest since June, suggesting whatever the PBOC is doing is working, and is also bullish. Not unexpectedly, global stocks decided to take the bullish way out, and have risen across the globe led by Asia, where stocks rose as much as 1.8%, Europe also green and US equity futures up 10 points as of this writing.

 
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RANsquawk Week Ahead Video: A busy week sees rate decisions from the RBA, RBI and BoC, while potential action from the ECB is set to take centre stage





After a subdued end to last week as a result of the US Thanksgiving holiday, this week will see markets served a deluge of data and tier 1 releases. 

 
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Global Stocks Slide, Futures Drop After Turkey Shoots Down Russian Warplane





It had been a relatively quiet session overnight when as reported previously, the geopolitical situation in the middle east changed dramatically in a moment, when NATO-member country Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet allegedly over Turkish territory even though the plane crashed in Syria, and whose pilots may have been captured by local rebel forces. The news promptly slammed Turkish assets and FX, sending the Lira tumbling, pushing lower European stocks and US equity futures while sending 2 Year German Bunds to record negative yields.

 
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