• Tim Knight from...
    02/06/2016 - 00:25
    What we must remember is this: we are in a bear market, and the risk of a countertrend rally is present, but confined. The opportunity on the downside movement dwarfs the risk of a push higher, as...
  • Phoenix Capital...
    02/06/2016 - 10:15
    2008 was caused by derivatives based on consumer-focused assets (houses). The next crisis will be driven by derivatives on government-focused assets (bonds).

RANSquawk

Tyler Durden's picture

Previewing The "Most Important Jobs Report Ever" - What Wall Street Expects





Perhaps one of the most notable features of the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report - which those with a flair for the dramatic have once again dubbed the "most important ever" simply because it may greenlight (or not) a Fed rate hike (any NFP print at 230K and above likely assures a September move by the Fed - which Wall Street consensus sees rising by 217K in August (although with Goldman a far below consensus 190K, and Wall Street's biggest cheerleader Joe LaVorgna predicting only 170K one has to wonder) is just how hard the punditry is trying to talk it down, with everyone from Joe LaVorgna to Bloomberg explaining why it is very likely that - due to seasonals only, and nothing but seasonals - it will be a weak report, only to be revised higher.

 
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Futures Slide More Than 1%, At Day Lows Ahead Of "Rate Hike Make Or Break" Payrolls





Moments ago, US equity futures tumbled to their lowest level in the overnight session, down 22 points or 1.1% to 1924, following both Europe (Eurostoxx 600 -1.8%, giving up more than half of yesterday's gains, led by the banking sector) and Japan (Nikkei -2.2%), and pretty much across the board as DM bonds are bid, EM assets are all weaker, oil and commodities are lower in what is shaping up to be another EM driven "risk off" day. Only this time one can't blame the usual scapegoat China whose market is shut for the long weekend.

 
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RANsquawk Nonfarm Payroll Preview 4th September 2015





 

 

This Friday appears to be make or break for the Fed's data dependency, as the FOMC's September rate decision looms.

 
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RANSQUAWK PREVIEW VIDEO: ECB September'15 Rate Decision: The ECB are expected to leave all three rates unchanged, with focus turning to inflation and the possibility of an expansion to the QE programme





 

  • All surveyed analysts expect the ECB to keep their three key interest rates unchanged
  • A number of analysts have suggested that inflation rhetoric could be downbeat and further QE is a possibility later this year, as such any potential indication to this by Draghi is likely to take centre stage at the press conference
  • The central bank are said to be concerned by inflation expectations, with low energy prices and recent EUR strength raising concerns about the central bank’s mandated 2% inflation target
 
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RANSQUAWK WEEK AHEAD PREVIEW - 31st August 2015: This week sees the final US Nonfarm payrolls report before the September FOMC rate decision, while the ECB rate decision and press conference is this week’s main event in Europe





 

· The final US Nonfarm payrolls report before the September FOMC rate decision takes centre stage this week after developments in China last week dampened expectations for a Fed rate lift off

· The ECB rate decision and press conference is this week’s main event in Europe, with some analysts forecasting an extension to QE by the end of the year

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Here We Go Again: US Equities Surge Even As Chinese Stock Market Rollercoaster Tumbles To 8 Month Low





It seemed like finally China's relentless and increasingly futile attempts to have a green stock close would work: interest rate cuts, liquidity injections, direct stock interventions, even threats on the Prime Minister's head, and just to make certain moments before the close news very deliberately broke that government funds are buying large financial stocks, especially state-owned banks, to support the index, in the latest clear signs of government support, the Shanghai Composite seemed on pace to end an unprecedented series of consecutive tumbles which have dragged the composite down nearly 1000 points, or 25% in one week, and then... red close, with the SHCOMP down 1.3% to 2927, and a stunned China watching in horror as the central bank and government lose control, and everything they throws at the biggest market bubble of 2015 does absolutely nothing.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

US Equity Futures Soar 4% After PBOC Rate Cut; Chinese Futures Jump After Overnight Market Crash





The PBOC cut itself was not surprising, considering the PBOC now has to juggle and micromanage every aspect of the economy, from its sliding currency, to the bursting stock bubble, to record capital outflow, to soaring real interest rates, to the slowing economy. In fact, bulls around the globe will welcome the latest central bank bailout. Which also happens to be the worst aspect of today's intervention, because one can once again toss all the talk that China would finally stop intervening in asset pricing, with today's decision merely perpetuating the market's reliance on central banks. As a reference, this was the second time China cut both RRR and interest rates in 2 months: the last time it did so was during the depths of the financial crisis.

 
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RANsquawk Week Ahead - 24th August: Black Monday sees weakness in equities throughout Asia and Europe, as well as filtering through to commodities and USD





  • Risk averse sentiment dominated the price action overnight, with Chinese equities (Shanghai Comp -8.5%) again under heavy selling pressure as market participants were left disappointed by the lack of action by the PBOC to ease monetary conditions further. 
  • US data is set to remain in focus as participants continue to try to gauge the possibility of a September rate lift off after last week’s Fed’s minutes highlighted concerns over China
  • This week sees the first preliminary August CPI readings in Europe from both Germany and Spain
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Chinese Stocks Crash To "Red Line" Support, US Futures Rebound Then Sink Again





Perhaps the biggest surprise about the overnight Chinese stock rout is which followed the lowest manufacturing PMI since March 2009, is that it happened despite repeat sellside pleas for a PBOC RRR cut as soon as this weekend: usually that alone would have been sufficient to push the market back into the green, and it almost worked when in the afternoon session stocks rebounded after dropping as much as 4.7% below the "hard" floor of 3500, but then a second bout of selling just before the close took Chinese stocks right back to the lows with the Shanghai Composite closing at 3,507, down 4.3% on the day, having wiped out the entire 18% rebound from July 8 when the PBOC first threatened both sellers and shorters with arrest.

 
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Dazed And Confused: Futures Tumble Below 200 DMA, Oil Near $40, Soaring Treasurys Signal Deflationary Deluge





It is unclear what precipitated it (some blamed China concerns, fears of rate hikes, commodity weakness, technical picture deterioration although  it's all just goalseeking guesswork) but overnight S&P futures followed yesterday's unexpected slide following what were explicitly dovish Fed minutes, and took another sharp leg lower down by almost 20 points, set to open below the 200 DMA again, as the dazed and confused investing world reacts to what both the Treasury and Oil market signal is a deflationary deluge. Indeed, oil is about to trade under $40 while the 10Y Treasury was last seen trading at 2.07%. Incidentally, the last time oil was here in March of 2009, the Fed was about to unleash QE 1. This time, so called experts are debating if the Fed will hike rates in one month or three.

 
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RANSQUAWK JULY 28th-29th FOMC MINUTES PREVIEW - Participants will be looking for communication as to when the FOMC will start to normalise rates and how close US economy is to meeting the central bank's criteria





PREVIEW: July 28th-29th FOMC minutes due at 1900BST/1300CDT
 

  • Markets looking for clarification for a September or December lift-off after the FOMC statement did not send any overt signals

 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Chinese Intervention Rescues Market From 2-Day Plunge, Futures Red Ahead Of Inflation Data, FOMC Minutes





With China's currency devaluation having shifted to the backburner if only for the time being, all attention was once again on the Chinese stock market roller coaster, which did not disappoint: starting off with yesterday's dramatic 6.2% plunge, the Shanghai Composite crashed in early trading, plunging as much as 5% in early trading and bringing the two-day drop to a correction-inducing 11%, and just 51.2 points away from the July 8 low (when China unleashed the biggest ad hoc market bailout in capital markets history) . And then the cavalry came in, and virtually the entire afternoon session was one big BTFD orgy, leading to a 1.2% gain in the Shanghai Composite closing price, while Shenzhen and ChiNext closed up 2.2% and 2.7%, respectively.

 
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