Is there US labor market suddenly sick: not only did the rate of hiring not rise over the past year, but in February it declined by 3.6% relative to last year. This was the biggest decline in the annual rate of hiring in over four years, going back to March 2013.
"We still think that Mr. Bond will have a soft landing this time. In fact, now that the Inaugural is behind us, with all of its ‘Sound and Fury signifying nothing’, Mr. Market will likely undertake a more cerebral evaluation of the likelihood of 4, 5 and 6% US GDP in 2017... A renewed safe haven bid for Mr. Bond and other fixed income assets seems certain before long, as Real Money and commercials have increased their net longs."
"...I worry about a whole world that sets up for low volatility when you've got a new administration that is almost unquantifiable...and it reminds me a lot of the portfolio insurance stuff around 1987..."
"Returns will likely do worse under the new administration than under the departing one, and where exceptions to this may be. That statement is linked to a simple idea. Good market environments often involve a shift from economic despair to optimism, and a shift in psychology from ‘fear’ to ‘greed’. Both occurred over the last eight years, producing returns well above the long-run average."