Rate of Change

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Raoul Pal Explains What Indicators He Looks At To Decide If The Next Crisis Has Arrived





Today, we bring our readers another RealVision excerpt of a reflexive "interview" in which Pal himself is in the hot seat, and goes into detail explaining the indicators he will be watching throughout 2016 that will suggest that a liquidity crisis is imminent.

 
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Revisiting The Greatest Crash In History





All we can do is point out the risks, so that people can at least prepare on an individual level. A major lesson everybody should take to heart from the Cyprus experience is this: when the next crisis strikes, do not believe any of the promises uttered by government or central bank officials. You will be lied to in the critical moments, and you could stand to lose a lot if you believe the lies.

 
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The World Of Work Has Changed And It's Never Going Back To The "Good Old Days"





Wishful thinking is not a solution. The world of work has changed, and the rate of change is increasing. Despite the hopes of those who want to turn back the clock to the golden era of high-paying, low-skilled manufacturing jobs and an abundance of secure service-sector white collar jobs, history doesn't have a reverse gear.

 
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Gold & The Federal Funds Rate





It is widely assumed that the gold price must decline when the Federal Reserve is hiking interest rates. It seems logical enough: gold has no yield, so if competing investment assets such as bonds or savings deposits do offer a yield, gold will presumably be exchanged for those. There is only a slight problem with this idea. The simple assumption “Fed rate hikes equal a falling gold price” is not supported by even a shred of empirical evidence.

 
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"Coppock Guide" Signals A Bear Market Is At Hand





Since 1929, there have been only eight such instances, and each one was followed by bear market losses of 30% or more...

 
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3 Things: Recession, Retail-less, Stupidity





While much of the financial media and Wall Street analysts continue to ignore the risks of a recession, there are some important warning signs that suggest this might be a bad idea. As Charles Gave noted earlier, "We are swimming in an ocean of ignorance... It seems all the painful economics lessons learned over the last 300 years have been forgotten"

 
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Draghi Holds Water Pistol Press Party - Live Feed





Update: PSPP extended to March 2017 "or beyond", regional debt added to QE-eligible asset pool

Having just let everyone down with a less-than-spectacular 10 bps depo rate cut, Mario Draghi will now try to appease a spoiled market by announcing an expansion and/or an extension of PSPP. 

 
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It Might Be A "Services Economy" But Manufacturing Drives Recessions





While it is hoped that the economy can continue to expand on the back of the "service" sector alone, history suggests that "manufacturing" continues to play a much more important dynamic that it is given credit for.

 
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The Next Level of John Law Type Central Planning Madness





The cries for going totally crazy are growing louder... the lunatics are running the asylum. One shouldn’t underestimate what they are capable of. The only consolation is that the day will come when the monetary cranks will be discredited again (for the umpteenth time). Thereafter it will presumably take a few decades before these ideas will rear their head again (like an especially sturdy weed, the idea that inflationism can promote prosperity seems nigh ineradicable in the long term – it always rises from the ashes again). The bad news is that many of us will probably still be around when the bill for these idiocies will be presented.

 
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Volatility Traders Aren't Buying The Rally





This is the fifth time in the past three years that the VIX rose 2% of more on a day the S&P 500 also rose, and short-term volatility expectations were at least 10% below longer-term volatility expectations. Those dates were: September 14, 2012, January 21, 2014, August 25, 2014, and May 18, 2015. Over the next month, the S&P 500 was not able to gain more than +1% at its best point, and suffered a loss averaging -3.2% at its worst point. Quite a negative reward-to-risk ratio.

 
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The Central Bankers' Death Wish





There is no alternative except to take cover because the latest stock market rip is based on pure central bank hopium. Indeed, Mario Draghi has confirmed once again that the world’s central bankers have a monetary death wish. Unlike the gamblers who bought Cramer’s top 49 stock picks, the best course of action is to sell, sell, sell—–and do it now.

 
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Draghi "MOAR QE Please" Press Conference - Live Feed





Update: DRAGHI SAYS ECB DISCUSSED A FURTHER LOWERING OF DEPOSIT RATE

Draghi hints at December QE expansion, noting that "the degree of monetary policy accommodation will need to be re-examined at our December monetary policy meeting." 

 
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3 Things: The Fed Is Screwed





The Federal Reserve is quickly becoming trapped by its own "data-dependent" analysis. Despite ongoing commentary of improving labor markets and economic growth, their own indicators are suggesting something very different. As we have stated previously, while the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates simply to "save face," there is indeed little real support for them doing so. Tightening monetary policy further will simply accelerate the time frame to the onset of the next recession. Of course, the Fed knows this which is why they recently floated the idea of "negative interest rates" out into the markets. In other words, they already likely realize they are screwed.

 
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How Our Aversion To Change Leads Us Into Danger





The persistent claim emanating from Washington that America spreads freedom and democracy around the world has been exposed as ludicrous numerous times and in many parts of the world, but not in the US itself, and that’s what counts most. The notion that we we can grow our way out of the mess that our previous growth spurt has gotten us into, rests at best on very flimsy foundations. To shake off this all-encompassing growth ideal, however, we would need to radically change our ‘model’ of the world.

 
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