"We still think that Mr. Bond will have a soft landing this time. In fact, now that the Inaugural is behind us, with all of its ‘Sound and Fury signifying nothing’, Mr. Market will likely undertake a more cerebral evaluation of the likelihood of 4, 5 and 6% US GDP in 2017... A renewed safe haven bid for Mr. Bond and other fixed income assets seems certain before long, as Real Money and commercials have increased their net longs."
"...I worry about a whole world that sets up for low volatility when you've got a new administration that is almost unquantifiable...and it reminds me a lot of the portfolio insurance stuff around 1987..."
"Returns will likely do worse under the new administration than under the departing one, and where exceptions to this may be. That statement is linked to a simple idea. Good market environments often involve a shift from economic despair to optimism, and a shift in psychology from ‘fear’ to ‘greed’. Both occurred over the last eight years, producing returns well above the long-run average."
While the bump in rates has been fastened to the recent election of Donald Trump, due to hopes of a deficit expansion program (read: more debt) and infrastructure spending which should foster economic growth and inflation, it doesn’t explain the global selling of U.S. Treasuries.
The most troubling figure in today's JOLTs report was the annual rate of change in hiring, which as shown in the chart below, dropped 2.2% compared to the 5.212 million a year ago. This was the biggest contraction in hiring since March 2013.
Will “Trumponomics” change the course of the U.S. economy? We certainly hope so. It will be better for us all. However, as investors, we must understand the difference between a “narrative-driven” advance and one driven by strengthening fundamentals. The first is short-term and leads to bad outcomes. The other isn’t, and doesn’t.