Rate of Change

"Someone Is Blowing Up": RBC Warns China-Induced Unwinds Are Escalating

"Something is off the past few weeks...  somebody’s ‘mean-reversion’ strategy (likely a stat arb / quant fund) has triggered ‘stop outs’ as the underlying commodities space now ‘catches down’ to the behavior already exhibited across the energy equities space throughout the course of 2017."

US Rig Count Rise Continues As Crude Production Hits 20-Month Highs

From the May 2016 lows, the number of US oil rig counts have only declined 3 times and this week was no exception. Up for its 15th week in a row (+9 to 697), its highest level since April 2015, the rig count continues to pull US crude production higher, stymying OPEC efforts at balance, leaving the bullish case for oil fading fast.

Labor Market JOLTed: Rate Of Hiring Suffers Biggest Drop In 4 Years

Is there US labor market suddenly sick: not only did the rate of hiring not rise over the past year, but in February it declined by 3.6% relative to last year. This was the biggest decline in the annual rate of hiring in over four years, going back to March 2013.

The Art And Pseudoscience Of Monetary Policy

Central planning via Fed monetary policy circa 2017 is an exercise in nonsense, plain and simple. But that’s not all, in addition to the fatal conceit of it all, there’s another fatal flaw.

Another Reason Not To Sell Bonds...Yet

"We still think that Mr. Bond will have a soft landing this time. In fact, now that the Inaugural is behind us, with all of its ‘Sound and Fury signifying nothing’, Mr. Market will likely undertake a more cerebral evaluation of the likelihood of 4, 5 and 6% US GDP in 2017... A renewed safe haven bid for Mr. Bond and other fixed income assets seems certain before long, as Real Money and commercials have increased their net longs."

US Financial Markets - Alarm Bells Are Ringing

If any unexpected fundamental news should emerge that throw doubt on the beliefs so widely held by market participants of late, a sizable surge in market volatility is likely to ensue.