Rating Agencies

Venezuela, PDVSA CDS Triggered: ISDA Says Credit Event Has Occured

In a long overdue, and not exactly surprising decision, moments ago the ISDA Determination Committee decided, after punting for three days in a row, that a Failure to Pay Credit Event has occured with respect to both the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela as well as its state energy company, PDVSA.

"Google & Facebook Are 1984" - Tax Them 'Til They Bleed

"As Google, Facebook and the CIA are ever more entwined, these companies become so important to what ‘the spooks’ consider the interests of the nation that they will become mutually protective...The world has never seen such technologies. We are simply not prepared for any of this."

How Economics Failed The Economy

"Growth itself has only been an illusion, a trick of numbers, generated by including what should have been left out in the first place. If we subtracted allocative industries from GDP, we’d see that economic growth is in fact below population growth, and has been for a very long time now..."

The State Of Illinois Is "Past The Point Of No Return"

"The State of Illinois is past the point of no return. It does not have the ability to raise taxes or cut spending to the degree necessary to reduce the annual cost of bond and retiree benefits from 33% to a sustainable level...The insolvency is not the result of too much bonded debt, but rather the government promising retirement and other post-employment benefits that aren’t affordable."

Frontrunning: September 22

  • North Korea Ramps Up International Rancor With H-Bomb Threat (WSJ)
  • A nuclear test over the Pacific? Logical, terrifying (Reuters)
  • What's a 'dotard'? Kim's insult to Trump (Reuters)
  • From Rubble and Ruin, a Mexican Town Wonders How to Rebuild After the Earthquake (WSJ)
  • Bonuses Are Shrinking. Blame Hurricanes and Trump (BBG)

A Brief History Of Tail Risk: From LTCM, ABX, CDS, To VIX

"While I think valuations may be stretched, my bigger concern is that the real risk lies in market structure – more specifically to volatility and correlation strategies that quickly propagate through the financial markets with the aid of algorithmic trading..."

The Saudi Power Balance Is On A Knife-Edge

The sweltering heat of Saudi Arabian summer will feel like a cool breeze compared to the geopolitical fire that could soon take over the country if ongoing internal power struggles destabilize the Kingdom’s Royal Family and national security in the coming weeks.