Rating Agencies

BofA Explains Why The ECB Will Be Forced To Buy Junk Bonds

When judged against the BoJ, the ECB probably still has a ways to go before hitting the limits of central banker insanity and so, we think it's entirely possible that Draghi moves into HY next. But the reasons to believe the ECB will take the plunge into non-IG corporate credit go beyond the “MOAR is always better” line. As BofAML’s Barnaby Martin explains, the EU corporate sector’s penchant for bond buybacks may ultimately force Draghi further down the ratings ladder lest the ECB should end up entangled in tender offers or else find itself without enough debt to monetize.

"No Signs Of Recession" Says Agency That Always Fails To Predict Recession

The top economist for Moody’s (one of the largest rating agencies in the world) said yesterday, as he unleahed the latest jobs guess, that there are absolutely zero signs of recession. These sameguys were so drunk on their own Kool-Aid that in October 2007, Moody’s announced that “the economy is not going to slide away into recession.” Everyone assumed that the good times would last forever. This is what virtually assures negative interest rates in America.

Moody's Downgrades China's Credit Outlook From Stable To Negative - Full Text

It is likely just a coincidence that just a month after we reported that China's real debt/GDP was far greater than the 280% or so accepted conventionally, and was really up to 350% if not higher after the recent record loan issuance surge, moments ago Moody's officially downgraded its outlook of China's credit rating from stable to negative, citing three key risks: 1) The ongoing and prospective weakening of fiscal metrics, as reflected in rising government debt and in large and rising contingent liabilities on the government balance sheet; 2) A continuing fall in reserve buffers due to capital outflows, which highlight policy, currency and growth risks; 3) Uncertainty about the authorities' capacity to implement reforms - given the scale of reform challenges - to address imbalances in the economy.

Chesapeake's AIG Moment: Energy Giant Faces $1 Billion In Collateral Calls

"we have received requests to post approximately $220 million in collateral, of which we have posted approximately $92 million. We have posted the required collateral, primarily in the form of letters of credit and cash, or are otherwise complying with these contractual requests for collateral. We may be requested or required by other counterparties to post additional collateral in an aggregate amount of approximately $698 million."

Citi: "There Was Something About The Entire Recovery Narrative That Is Downright Wrong"

"Far from making the world safer, then, there is a risk that the post-crisis policy mix has simply suppressed problems, making markets stickier, and may even have added to them, by driving the global credit cycle far ahead of the current interest rate cycle. Recent market dislocations are a sign that that stickiness may be reaching breaking point. At this point we may start to question whether it can provide a similar solution this time round, not just because of the zero lower bound, but because the entire premise on which it has been based – inducing credit expansion and risk-taking in some other part of the global economy – seems to be reaching its limits."

S&P Downgrades Glencore To Lowest Investment Grade Rating

Overnight, one of the two rating agencies, Standard and Poors, came one step closer to that fateful moment of junking Glencore when it downgraded Glencore, however it decided to throw the company one last lifeline by keeping it at the very lowest investment grade rating, and instead of cutting it from BBB to single B or CCC where its CDS and bond yield implies the company should be trading, it kept it a BBB-.

Bad Loans Pile Up In Alberta, As Oil Bust Weighs On State Lender

Just in case you needed another reason to fear for the worst in Alberta, Moody’s and DBRS are becoming increasingly concerned about crown corporation ATB Financial. “Alberta's debt situation was under the microscope last week, with [the] two rating agencies taking a look at the province's fiscal situation and economy and not liking what they saw,” CBC reports.

With EMs And SWFs Pushing Markets Lower, Here Are The Three Dramatic Conclusions

Earlier today we showed an amazing schematic courtesy of Citi's Matt King: if one includes the reserve liquidation by various EMs and SWF, and nets it against liquidity injections by DM central banks (and the PBOC), one gets a perfect quantitative, not just qualitative, walk thru on how to trade markets: in other words one can measure, using high frequency data in real-time, just where markets should trade based on liquidity flows and promptly profit from any arbitrage opportunities. But aside from the potential for substantial profits, there are more profound implications. Matt King lays them out as follows..

Moody's Just Put Over Half A Trillion Dollars In Energy Debt On Downgrade Review

Moody's took the global energy sector to the woodshed, placing 175 global oil, gas and mining companies and groups on review for a downgrade due to a prolonged rout in global commodities prices that it says could remain depressed indefinitely. Here are the 69 US, 19 Canadian and 13 European companies (the full list of all global companies can be found here) that just Moody's black list, a grand total of 101 companies which now face a downgrade threat on just about $540 billion in total debt.

Glencore's "Investment Grade" Bonds Just Took Out September Crash Lows: Downgrade To Junk Imminent

Glencore's 2021 bonds just hit a 5 year low, taking out the September crash levels, and trading at about 64 cents on the dollar. Following the recent junking of Noble Group which has sent its stock price to 12 year lows and hitning that a bankruptcy is now virtually inevitable, we expect Glencore to be junked any minute, with the ensuing cascade of margin and collateral calls testing just how "systematically unimportant" the world's largest commodity traders really are.