Rating Agency

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Policy Confusion Reigns As China Caps Muni Debt, Uncaps Bank Debt, And Bad Loans Soar





In the latest example of Beijing attempting to deleverage and re-leverage all at once, China has lifted a cap on loan-to-deposit ratios for banks while simultaneously capping local government debt issuance for 2015. Meanwhile, bad loans are still on the rise at China's "big four" banks, underscoring the extent to which China's economy is rapidly deteriorating and drawing a line under the risk the PBoC is running by forcing banks to lend into an extraordinarily uncertain environment.

 
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Turkish Lira Plunges To Record Low As Coalition Talks Break Down





It appears efforts to form a coalition has failed as local nes report both the AKP and CHP will make separate statements from their party HQs.

 
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Just As Brazil Hits Rock Bottom, Things Are About To Get Even Worse





For anyone who might have missed it, Brazil is in trouble. "Macro imbalances in Brazil are large, the worst in almost a decade. The fiscal deficit at -8.1% of GDP is also at its widest in more than 20 years, with the combined twin deficits now tracking at a disquieting 12.5% of GDP. Brazil stands at a crossroads – both roads involve currency depreciation."

 
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"We Have A Civil War": Inside Turkey's Descent Into Political, Social, And Economic Chaos





"There's a saying, 'if there's peace, it will start from Cizre, and if there's war, it will start from here as well.' And we can say we have a civil war in Turkey."

 
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"Debt Is A Fickle Witch"





Debt is a fickle witch. When left to its own devices, which it has been for nearly seven years with interest rates at the zero bound, it tends to get into trouble. Unchecked credit initially seeps, and eventually finds itself fracked, into the dark, dank nooks and crannies of the fixed income markets whose infrastructures and borrowers are ill-suited to handle the capacity. Consider the two flashiest badges of wealth in America - cars and homes...

 
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Violent Government Buying Spree Sends Chinese Stocks Soaring At Close Of Trading; Yellen On Deck





On a day when market participants will care about only one thing - how hawkish (or dovish) the FOMC sounds at 2:00 pm (no Yellen press conference today) - Chinese stocks provided the usual dramatic sideshow and traded unchanged or modestly negative for most of the day despite the latest $100 billion injection, the close of trading on Wednesday was a mirror image of what happened in the last hour on Monday, as various Chinese "plunge-protection" mechanism went into a furious buying frenzy and government-backed funds rushed to buy anything that trades in the last 60 minutes of trading in what may be the most glaring example of banging the close yet.

 
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Pension Shocker: Plans Face $2 Trillion Shortfall, Moody's Says





"Moody’s, which in 2013 began using a lower rate than governments do to calculate future liabilities, has estimated that the 25 largest U.S. public pensions alone have $2 trillion less than they need", Bloomberg reports.

 
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"Everybody Benefits By Avoiding Defaults": Citi Explains How To Goalseek Student Loan ABS Ratings





Moody's and Fitch are taking a hard look at student loan-backed ABS and they don't necessarily like what they see. Fortunately, Citi has some pointers on how the ratings agencies might go about avoiding downgrades.

 
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Frontrunning: July 10





  • Fed Chair Yellen To Speak As Global Tensions Rise (WSJ)
  • Greek PM Tsipras seeks party backing after abrupt concessions (Reuters)
  • France Hails Greek Aid Proposals as Germany Reserves Judgment (BBG)
  • Greek PM says does not have mandate to exit eurozone (Reuters)
  • France Intercedes on Greece’s Behalf to Try to Hold Eurozone Together (WSJ)
  • Frozen Funds, Fleeing Tourists: Greek Startups Feel the Pinch (BBG)
  • Doubts Simmer Despite China’s Gain (WSJ)
 
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Cities, States Shun Moody's For Blowing The Whistle On Pension Liabilities





In the wake of the Chicago downgrade, state and local governments are moving away from Moody's as the ratings agency questions pension fund return assumptions. 

 
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European Stocks Slide, Greece Tumbles But US BTFDers Emerge After Collapse In Greek Bailout Talks





European shares remain lower, close to intraday lows, with the banks and autos sectors underperforming and food & beverage, retail outperforming. Tsipras hardens Greek stance after collapse of bailout talks. The Italian and Swedish markets are the worst-performing larger bourses, the U.K. the best. The euro is weaker against the dollar. Greek 10yr bond yields rise; Spanish yields increase. Commodities decline, with copper, nickel underperforming and natural gas outperforming. U.S. Empire manufacturing, net TIC flows, NAHB housing market index, industrial production, capacity  utilization due later.

 
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As Seen In Greece: "I Rushed To The Bank" And The Return Of ATM Lines?





“I was spooked. It looked at first like a real default so I rushed to the bank."

“I used to take out half and leave the rest for an emergency. Now I feel relieved it’s there and make sure I take out every last lepto [cent].”

 
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Here's What Happens When Your City Is Cut To Junk





Last month, Chicago saw its debt cut to junk at Moody's, triggering billions in accelerated payment rights and jeopardizing efforts to improve the city's finances in the face of a budget gap that's set to triple over three years. Citi has more on the dreaded "downgrade feedback loop."

 
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Chicago "Junking" Triggers $2.2 Billion Payment, Deepening Financial Crisis





Following an Illinois Supreme Court ruling that struck down a pension reform plan aimed at closing a $100 billion funding gap, Moody's downgrades Chicago to junk, giving the city the dubious distinction of being the only major city "in recent history" to carry such a low rating other than Detroit. Chicago now faces accelerated payments to creditors of more than $2 billion.

 
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