Rating Agency

Is Portugal The Next "Shoe To Drop" In Europe?

Portugal 10-year yields imply that investors are starting to get a little worried about an October ratings decision that could make Portugal the EU's next big bailout candidate.

S&P Futures Unchanged As Europe Rises; Dollar Slide Sends Oil Above $47

In the latest quiet trading session, European shares rose while Asian stocks fell and S&P futures were little changed. Minutes of the Fed’s last meeting damped prospects for a U.S. interest-rate hike, sending the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index doen 0.3%, approaching a three-month low. Dollar weakness continues to buoy commodities, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index set for the most enduring rally in more than two months, as WTI flirted with $47

The Stock Market's Big Lie: "I'll Take The Under"

One of the biggest “lies” in the financial world is that if you just invest your money in the markets over the long-term, you will average 7, 8 or 10% a year. Asset-gatherers don't give enough credence to the long-term effects of the “when” you start your investing cycle. The primary problem is that investors DO NOT have 100-years to invest BEFORE their disbursement cycle begins. Unfortunately, with stock valuations pushing the second highest level in history, forward return expectations (before inflation, taxes, and expenses) are extremely low.

This Has Never Happened Outside Of A Recession

The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey for July 2016 showed that banks continued to tighten standards on commercial loans in 2016 for both commercial and industrial (C&I) and commercial real estate (CRE). This was the fourth straight quarter of tighter standards: something that has never happened outside of a recession.

The Market For Lemons, The Market For Bullshit, And The Great Cascading Credence Crash Of 2016

The underlying problem is, I think, a very strange one. But it’s a risk faced by any society that both undergoes rapid technological change, and contains organized interest groups. (Formal or informal.) Something really bad is happening to all our bullshit. In fact, I’ve begun to worry that there’s actually a sort of crash or cascading failure going on in the bullshit market. If there is, I think it’s driven, as previous bullshit crashes were, by changing technology.

S&P Downgrades Turkey To BB, Outlook Negative; Lira Tumbles To New All Time Low

"Following the attempted coup on July 15, Turkey's political landscape has fragmented further. We believe this will undermine Turkey's investment environment, growth, and capital inflows into its externally leveraged economy. In the aftermath of the failed coup, we believe that the risks to Turkey's ability to roll over its external debt have increased."

Sovereign Credit Is Deteriorating At A Record Pace

Culminating with the tipping of the UK's numerous real estate fund "dominoes" and the subsequent fallout in the wake Brexit, Fitch has been on a ratings-slashing spree, having cut the credit ratings on 14 nations so far in 2016, most recently that of the United Kingdom - a record downgrade pace for the rating agency.

Frontrunning: July 1

  • Bond yields sink as central banks head for easier policy (Reuters)
  • PM hopeful Gove says UK leader must believe in Brexit (AP)
  • U.K. Can’t Bank on EU’s Rationality in Talks (WSJ)
  • Gove Makes Case for U.K. Premiership After Johnson Betrayal (BBG)
  • ECB not debating abandoning capital key in QE buys (Reuters)

Frontrunning: June 30

  • Brexiters at war as Johnson pulls bid to be PM (FT)
  • Soros Says Brexit Has ‘Unleashed’ a Financial-Markets Crisis (BBG)
  • World stocks poised for worst month since January (Reuters)
  • China to tolerate weaker yuan, wary of trade partners' reaction (Reuters)
  • China central bank criticizes media for publishing 'inaccurate information' on yuan rate (Reuters)

Frontrunning: June 28

  • Brexit vote, UK political confusion keep world markets on edge (Reuters)
  • Cameron Heads to Last Supper in Brussels Amid Impasse in London (BBG)
  • Banks Get Reprieve From Brexit Hammering (WSJ)
  • U.S. Stock Futures Rise as Stimulus Hopes Outweigh Brexit Fears (BBG)
  • Brexit adds to existing troubles faced by banks (FT)

Here Is Why One Credit Rating Agency Believes Russia Is Safer Than The US

If posed with the question who has the better credit rating, the United States or Russia, most people would presumably pick the United States. However, that is not the case for Dagong Global Credit Rating Co, one of the three biggest credit rating companies in China. Here's why...

Global Stocks Rebound As Brexit Odds Decline Following Tragic Death Of UK Lawmaker

While it may very well not last and all of yesterday's gains could evaporate instantly if the Brexit vote is set to take place as scheduled, all 10 industry groups in the MSCI All-Country World Index advanced, with the index rising 0.7% trimming the week’s drop 1.6%. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1.4%. Futures on the S&P 500 were little changed, after equities Thursday snapped their longest losing streak since February. . Oil rose, paring its biggest weekly decline in more than two months. Bond yields around the globe fell.

Mario Draghi Is Now Buying Junk Bonds

A few days after the ECB unexpectedly announced its CSPP, or corporate bond buying program which based on its definition was limited to investment grade, non-financial debt, we explained "Why The ECB Will Be Forced To Buy Junk Bonds", saying that "the EU corporate sector’s penchant for bond buybacks may ultimately force Draghi further down the ratings ladder lest the ECB should end up entangled tender offers or else end up without enough debt to monetize." This was confirmed on the very first day of the ECB's bond purchases.