Rating Agency

Global Equity Euphoria Prepares To Meet Mario Draghi

There’s seemingly no stopping the equity side of the “Trumpflation” trade in what may be developing into an epic year end blow-off top. The euphoria which took the S&P 500, Russell 2000 and the Transports to all-time highs yesterday, and the Dow to less than 500 points away from 20,000 carried over into Asian stocks (+0.8%) as they followed bullish trend, while European stocks rose for a fourth day.

Moody's Cuts Italy Ratings Outlook To Negative

Moody's has cut Italy's long-term senior unsecuredd government debt rating outlook from 'stable' to 'negative', leaving it at Baa2 for now. Citing "slow and halting progress" on economic and fiscal reform in Italy, noting that reduction in Italy’s large debt burden will be further postponed given subdued medium-term growth prospects, recent fiscal slippage.

Frontrunning: October 25

  • Hilsenrath: Fed’s Task Ahead: How Best to Signal Year-End Rate Move (WSJ)
  • Fed Inclined to Raise Rates If Next President Pumps Up Budget (BBG)
  • World stocks, commodities climb as economic confidence lifts (Reuters)
  • Ahead of earnings: Apple Boosted by IPhone 7 Demand, Slowing Pace of Sales Decline (BBG)
  • Campaigns Brace for Election-Day Legal Battles (WSJ)

Global Stocks, Futures Jump On Strong China Inflation; Oil Rises Above $51

One day after a slump in Chinese trade sparked a global market selloff on concerns the world's second biggest economy had once again hit a downward inflection point, overnight China surprised once again, this time to the upside when the latest inflationary data printed hotter than expected, sending European and Asian stocks higher and pushing the yen lower after China’s producer price index rose for the first time since March 2012.

Chinese Banks Will Need $1.7 Trillion To Cover Bad Debt Deluge, S&P Calculates

In a report published by S&P Global, the rating agency's analysts noticed not only the latest deterioration in corporate China, but also the relentlessly growing leverage, noting that rising debt levels will worsen the credit profiles of China's top 200 companies, requiring the country's banks to raise $1.7 trillion in capital to cover a likely surge in bad loans.

Global Stocks Decline On Samsung Woes; Rising Dollar Pressures Oil

Global markets and US equity futures fell on Samsung Galaxy Note 7 contagion concern, while the dollar rose to its strongest level in 11 weeks and U.S. bonds declined as investors boosted wagers that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.

Turkey Lashes Out At Moody's After Downgrade To "Junk" Sends Turkish Assets Plunging

Turkish assets plummeted the most since an attempted coup in July and credit risk climbed after Moody’s Investors Service cut the country’s sovereign rating to junk. The immediate response by the Turkish administration was to lash out at Moody's calling the decision "politically-motivated", after a similar downgrade by S&P led Erdogan to acuse the agency of siding with coup plotters.

Frontrunning: September 20

  • How Police Tracked Down Bombing Suspect Suspect Ahmad Khan Rahami (WSJ)
  • Dollar Falls With Treasuries Amid Fed, BOJ Countdown; Oil Rises (BBG)
  • Fed again poised to cut longer-run interest rate forecast (Reuters)
  • Pipeline Break Lights a Fire Under Gasoline Prices Across Southeast (WSJ)
  • U.S. investigators seek motive for NY, NJ weekend attacks (Reuters)
  • Carrie Tolstedt: In the Eye of the Wells Fargo Storm (WSJ)

After Public Outcry Over $125 Million Tolstedt Bonus, Wells Fargo Will End Sales Goals For Retail Bankers

As a result of the righteous outrage following news that Wells Fargo rewarded Carrie Tolstedt, the head of the group that was recently exposed as creating some 2 million fake credit card and bank accounts so it could churn late fees, and was in charge of what the bank's employees called "sandbagging", was leaving the bank with a $125 million package, this morning a panicked Wells Fargo said that it would eliminate all product sales goals in retail banking, starting next year.

Recovery Rates In E&P Bankruptcies Hit "Catastrophic" Levels: Moody's

Moody's has caught up to what readers of Zero Hedge knew half a year ago. According to the rating agency, creditors of energy exploration and production companies that went bankrupt last year recouped less than half the usual amount for their claims, and 2016 is shaping up just as bad. Moody's even went so far as to even use the "C" word: "Recovery rates for 15 U.S. E&P bankruptcies averaged a “catastrophic” 21 percent last year, well below the historical average of 59 percent."  

Is Portugal The Next "Shoe To Drop" In Europe?

Portugal 10-year yields imply that investors are starting to get a little worried about an October ratings decision that could make Portugal the EU's next big bailout candidate.

S&P Futures Unchanged As Europe Rises; Dollar Slide Sends Oil Above $47

In the latest quiet trading session, European shares rose while Asian stocks fell and S&P futures were little changed. Minutes of the Fed’s last meeting damped prospects for a U.S. interest-rate hike, sending the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index doen 0.3%, approaching a three-month low. Dollar weakness continues to buoy commodities, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index set for the most enduring rally in more than two months, as WTI flirted with $47

The Stock Market's Big Lie: "I'll Take The Under"

One of the biggest “lies” in the financial world is that if you just invest your money in the markets over the long-term, you will average 7, 8 or 10% a year. Asset-gatherers don't give enough credence to the long-term effects of the “when” you start your investing cycle. The primary problem is that investors DO NOT have 100-years to invest BEFORE their disbursement cycle begins. Unfortunately, with stock valuations pushing the second highest level in history, forward return expectations (before inflation, taxes, and expenses) are extremely low.