With Fitch now expecting $40 billion in US energy defaults in 2016, the question is who are the most likely candidates. In the following table, we list the distressed bonds which have an interest payment in the next 6 months - one which they very well may not make - and which will most likely be the first to default.
- Pressure Is on Mario Draghi to Show ECB Has Tools to Boost Low Inflation (WSJ)
- Euro dips as ECB sets sights on deeper negative rates (Reuters)
- Ohio's 'dirty little secret': blue-collar Democrats for Trump (Reuters)
- Irish Economy Expanded 7.8% in 2015, Fastest Pace Since 2000 (BBG)
- Too Many Boats for Too Little Cargo Leaves Shippers High and Dry (BBG)
The top economist for Moody’s (one of the largest rating agencies in the world) said yesterday, as he unleahed the latest jobs guess, that there are absolutely zero signs of recession. These sameguys were so drunk on their own Kool-Aid that in October 2007, Moody’s announced that “the economy is not going to slide away into recession.” Everyone assumed that the good times would last forever. This is what virtually assures negative interest rates in America.
- Trump, Clinton poised for big wins on Super Tuesday (Reuters)
- U.S. Index Futures Signal Equities to Rebound After Monthly Drop (BBG)
- Barclays Plummets as Bank Slashes Dividend in Plan to Shrink (BBG)
- Glencore Tumbles to Loss, Promises Accelerated Debt Reduction (WSJ)
- The Angry Americans: Trump, Sanders and the Aftershocks of 2008 (BBG)
Is the blockchain a breakthrough financial technology or the latest focus for Wall Street hype?
In a market where fraud is tolerated or even encouraged, no amount of capital will suffice to maintain investor confidence.
While energy E&P companies were dropping like flies in 2015, credit rating agencies and banks have remained awfully quiet....
Moody's took the global energy sector to the woodshed, placing 175 global oil, gas and mining companies and groups on review for a downgrade due to a prolonged rout in global commodities prices that it says could remain depressed indefinitely. Here are the 69 US, 19 Canadian and 13 European companies (the full list of all global companies can be found here) that just Moody's black list, a grand total of 101 companies which now face a downgrade threat on just about $540 billion in total debt.
When the FOMC is deliberately manipulating asset prices and credit spreads... collateral damage is inevitable.
S&P's Downgrade (By A German Analyst) Is A "Politically-Motivated" Decision Aimed At Polish AuthoritiesSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/19/2016 13:50 -0400
The Standard and Poor’s rating agency, notorious for its controversial assessments, has this time bashed Poland in the wake of the anti-Polish frenzy whipped up by the European media. To be more precise, Poland was assailed by a German S&P analyst who lowered Poland’s rating from A- to BBB+, despite the economic data that by no means warrant such an evaluation.
Our balance sheet - the strongest in recent history - represents a significant advantage as we continue to identify high value growth opportunities across the products and geographies we operate in. Maintaining out investment grade rating with the international rating agencies is a vital part of this strategy.
- Noble Group 2014 Annual Report, p. 27
Weak earnings performance in marketing operations below the current EBIT guidance of $2.4-$2.7 billion could place negative pressure on the Baa3 ratings in the absence of any mitigating measures. A weakening of the company's liquidity position, delays with the planned divestments in 2016 or a material reduction in its working capital funding capacities by the banks, as well as sustained high leverage with adjusted debt/EBITDA exceeding 4x, will also put negative pressure on the Baa3 ratings."
The Fed & ECB are spawning the next crisis....
"It is our humble belief that the consensus at the Fed does not fully understand the magnitude of the problems in corporate credit markets and the unintended consequences of their policy actions."
European Stocks, US Futures Surge On Last Minute Hopes Of "Extraordinary Policy Easing" By Mario DraghiSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/03/2015 07:52 -0400
Yesterday's market swoon which unwound all of Tuesday's gains on concerns about a hawkish Fed and fears about terrorism in the US, are now completely forgotten, and have been replaced with the latest daily round of pre-ECB euphoria, driven by hopes that Mario Draghi will announce even more dovish details to Europe's Q€ 2 than just a 10 bps rate cut and a boost to QE more than €10 billion, both of which have been already priced in.