Rating Agency

Frontrunning: March 30

  • Bad News Is Great News: Cautious Yellen drives world stocks near 2016 peaks (Reuters)
  • Yellen Spurs Global Stock Rally as Oil Rebounds, Dollar Tumbles (BBG)
  • Trump drops pledge to back Republican presidential nominee other than himself (Reuters)
  • Second judge says Clinton email setup may have been in 'bad faith' (Reuters)
  • Brussels Airport Remains Shut as Police Hunt Third Attacker (BBG)

Catalonia Said To Blackmail Spain On Overdue Bank Loans

Spain and Catalonia are locked in a hilarious staring contest over the latter's unpaid bank debt which Barcelona has essentially demanded that Madrid pay. If Spain says no, Catalonia may well just default, a move that would send yields on SPGB's through the roof. Of course if Spain does pay, Madrid is effectively subsidizing Barcelona's independence bid.

These Are The Energy Bonds Most Likely To Default In The Next Six Months

With Fitch now expecting $40 billion in US energy defaults in 2016, the question is who are the most likely candidates. In the following table, we list the distressed bonds which have an interest payment in the next 6 months - one which they very well may not make - and which will most likely be the first to default.

Frontrunning: March 10

  • Pressure Is on Mario Draghi to Show ECB Has Tools to Boost Low Inflation (WSJ)
  • Euro dips as ECB sets sights on deeper negative rates (Reuters)
  • Ohio's 'dirty little secret': blue-collar Democrats for Trump (Reuters)
  • Irish Economy Expanded 7.8% in 2015, Fastest Pace Since 2000 (BBG)
  • Too Many Boats for Too Little Cargo Leaves Shippers High and Dry (BBG)

"No Signs Of Recession" Says Agency That Always Fails To Predict Recession

The top economist for Moody’s (one of the largest rating agencies in the world) said yesterday, as he unleahed the latest jobs guess, that there are absolutely zero signs of recession. These sameguys were so drunk on their own Kool-Aid that in October 2007, Moody’s announced that “the economy is not going to slide away into recession.” Everyone assumed that the good times would last forever. This is what virtually assures negative interest rates in America.

Frontrunning: March 1

  • Trump, Clinton poised for big wins on Super Tuesday (Reuters)
  • U.S. Index Futures Signal Equities to Rebound After Monthly Drop (BBG)
  • Barclays Plummets as Bank Slashes Dividend in Plan to Shrink (BBG)
  • Glencore Tumbles to Loss, Promises Accelerated Debt Reduction (WSJ)
  • The Angry Americans: Trump, Sanders and the Aftershocks of 2008 (BBG)

Moody's Just Put Over Half A Trillion Dollars In Energy Debt On Downgrade Review

Moody's took the global energy sector to the woodshed, placing 175 global oil, gas and mining companies and groups on review for a downgrade due to a prolonged rout in global commodities prices that it says could remain depressed indefinitely. Here are the 69 US, 19 Canadian and 13 European companies (the full list of all global companies can be found here) that just Moody's black list, a grand total of 101 companies which now face a downgrade threat on just about $540 billion in total debt.

Noble Group's "Margin Call" Part II: The Enron Moment

Our balance sheet - the strongest in recent history - represents a significant advantage as we continue to identify high value growth opportunities across the products and geographies we operate in. Maintaining out investment grade rating with the international rating agencies is a vital part of this strategy.

- Noble Group 2014 Annual Report, p. 27