- Italy Political Vacuum to Extend for Weeks as Bargaining Begins (BBG)
- Italian impasse rekindles eurozone jitters (FT)
- On Spending Cuts, the Focus Shifts to How, Not If (WSJ)
- Obama spending cuts strategy focused on waiting game (Reuters)
- BOE’s Tucker Says He’s Open to Expanding Asset-Purchase Program (BBG)
- Fed Faces Explaining Billion-Dollar Losses in Stress of QE3 Exit (BBG)
- Carney warns over lack of trust in banks (FT) - here's a solution: moar bank bailouts!
- Bundesbank tells France to stick to budget (FT)
- China to tighten shadow banking rules (FT)
- Saudis Step Up Help for Rebels in Syria With Croatian Arms (NYT)
- After election win, Anastasiades faces Cyprus bailout quagmire (Reuters)
- Just for the headline: Singapore’s Darwinian Budget Sparks Employer Ire (BBG)
See why Moody's downgrade of the UK credit rating is unlikely to impact the financial markets or UK policy. One of the sub-arguments is that the divergence between the US and UK monetary policy in recent months cannot explain sterling's slide in the foreign exchange market. Moreover, the UK's exports seem more inelastic to UK exports that the currency warriors would suggest.
Osborne's statement was prepared well in advance, which means Moody's action was not only prepared and distributed long ago but it got the blessing of both the UK government and Goldman Sachs. And why not: so far it has achieved precisely what it was intended to: crush the Pound. The next question: when does talk of GBP-EUR parity begin?
And another AAA-club member quietly exits not with a bang but a whimper:
MOODY’S DOWNGRADES UK’S GOVERNMENT BOND RATING TO Aa1 FROM AAA
Someone must have clued Moody's on the fact that the UK is about to have its very own Goldman banker, which means consolidated debt/GDP will soon need four digits. In other news, every lawyer in the UK is now celebrating because come Monday Moody's will be sued to smithereens. Cable not happy as it tests 31 month lows, which however also explains why the Moody's action has another name: accelerated cable devaluation. Those who heeded our call to short Cable when Goldman's Mark Carney was appointed are now 1000 pips richer. Also, please sacrifice a lamb at the altar of Goldman: It's the polite thing to do.
In a shining example of true form capitalism, Russian scammers opportunists took advantage of the cosmic fury at the ongoing G-20 meeting in Moscow expressed by an attempted bombardment via meteor (which allegedly left the hole shown in the picture below), and are already seeking to find the level of equilibrium demand for cosmic commodities and market clearing prices by offering pieces of the meteor for sale on local websites. From Moscow Times: "Enterprising businessmen in the Urals city of Chelyabinsk lost no time in finding a way to capitalize on the meteor strike that shook the city on Friday morning. By early afternoon, several websites were already selling "fragments of meteorite." Two-centimeter fragments of the celestial body that hospitalized dozens and injured hundreds more in the Urals early on Friday were being offered for 500 rubles a piece by 2 p.m. Moscow time."
Just over two years ago, we reported that "The Farce Is Complete: S&P Downgrades Moody's To BBB+ From A-2", or in other words, one rating agency downgraded another rating agency, with the following rationale: "While we believe it is likely that the new pleading standard will lead to an increase in litigation-related costs at Moody's and therefore poses an element of risk, whether the new pleading standard may increase the likelihood of successful litigation against Moody's will be determined in the future by the courts.... Moody's management has stated that it plans to adapt its business practices in an effort to offset any potential new litigation-related costs associated with the legislation. Nevertheless, we believe that Moody's will likely face higher operating costs, lower margins, and increases in litigation-related event risk that we believe may present risks to the company's reputation." Well talk about irony, and of course role-reversal, now that it is not Warren Buffett's pet company Moody's (which is just as guilty as US-downgrading S&P was in rating financial toxic garbage as AAA), but S&P that was just sued by the DOJ and the kitchen sinks. And the last laugh - the piece de resistance as it were - sure enough, belongs to Moody's, which just downgraded S&P parent McGraw Hill.
Just a purely accidental modest to quite modest increase in the Heinz June $65 call open interest yesterday, and an even more accidental $1.5 million profit in one day? Surely the new Morgan Stanely head of the SEC will get right on it, and market "credibility" will be preserved.
While Moody's slipped over 20% when the DoJ announced its cajillion dollar lawsuit against S&P for knowing the crisis was coming but not telling anyone, it later bounced back over 10% as investors believed the non-US-downgrading rating agency (that happened to be owned by Buffett) was too-big-to-jail. After-hours today, Reuters is reporting that the Justice Department and multiple states are discussing also suing Moody's Corp for defrauding investors, according to people familiar with the matter, but any such move will likely wait until a similar lawsuit against rival Standard and Poor's is tested in the courts. The stock is trading down 3% after-hours as sources (not authorized to speak publicly) added "don't think Moody's is off the hook." We can't help but think about the pending sequester-delaying deficit spike as perhaps, to appear impartial, the DoJ will keep the threat of a lawsuit against Moody's alive... during the entire period when the US may and should be downgraded.
We urge readers to do a word search for "Moody's" in the official department of justice release below. Here are the highlights:
DOJ COMPLAINT ALLEGES S&P LIED ABOUT ITS OBJECTIVITY - when it downgraded the US?
HOLDER SAYS S&P'S ACTIONS CAUSED `BILLIONS' IN LOSSES - did Moody's actions, profiled previously here, which happens to be a major holding of one Warren Buffett, cause billions in profits?
HOLDER SAYS `NO CONNECTION' BETWEEN S&P SUIT, U.S. DOWNGRADE - just brilliant
Pure pathetic political posturing, because it was the rating agencies, whose complicity and conflicts of interest everyone knew about, who were responsible for the financial crisis. Not Alan Greenspan, not Ben Bernanke, and certainly not Wall Street which made tens of billions in profits selling CDOs to idiots in Europe and Asia. Of course, the US consumer who had a gun held against their head when they were buying McMansions with no money down and no future cash flow is not even mentioned.
- Obama to meet with Goldman's Blankfein, other CEOs Tuesday (Reuters)
- Chinese Firms Shrug at Rising Debt (WSJ)
- McGraw-Hill, S&P Sued by U.S. Over Mortgage-Bond Ratings (BBG)... but not Moody's or Fitch
- Dime a Dozen: Dollar Stores Pinched by Rapid Expansion (WSJ)
- Dell Board Said to Vote Monday Night on $24 Billion LBO (BBG)
- BOJ Governor Shirakawa to step down on March 19 (Reuters)
- Alberta may offer more to smooth way for Keystone (Reuters)
- Facebook Is Said to Create Mobile Location-Tracking App (BBG)
- Barclays takes another $1.6 billion hit for mis-selling (Reuters)
- Apple App Advantage Eroded as Google Narrows IPhone Lead (BBG)
- Texas School-Finance System Unconstitutional, Judge Rules (BBG)
- World Risks ‘Perfect Storm’ on Capital Flows, Carstens Says (BBG)
Egan-Jones may have been barred from rating sovereigns for 18 months due to missing a comma here or there in its NRSRO application (when everyone knows this was merely retribution for downgrading the US ahead of all the other rating agencies), but now the time has come for that other rating agency which dared to follow in EJ's footsteps and downgrade the US of AmericaAA+ in August 2011 to be punished: Standard & Poors. Moments ago we learned that federal and state prosecutors will five civil charges against S&P for its mortgage bond ratings during the housing crisis.
Gold fell $4.00 or 0.24% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,654.90/oz. Silver climbed to $31.30 in Asia before it eased off to $30.73 and finished with a loss of 1.09%.
Early in the 4th century, Emperor Diocletian issued an infamous decree to control spiraling wages and prices in the rapidly deteriorating Roman Empire. As part of his edict, Diocletian commanded that any merchant or customer caught violating the new price structures would be put to death. This is an important lesson from history, and a trend that has been repeated numerous times. When nations are in terminal economic decline, governments will stop at nothing to keep the party going just a little bit longer. I thought of Diocletian’s desperation a few days ago when I read about the recent sanctions imposed on US rating agency Egan-Jones. Given that all this is happening at a time when Congress is voting to suspend the debt ceiling entirely, these actions are the clearest sign yet of just how desperate the government has become. Could the warning signs be any more obvious?
It is refreshing to see that the SEC has taken a much needed break from its daily escapades into midgetporn.xxx and is focusing on what is truly important, such as barring outspoken rating agency Egan-Jones from rating the US and other governments. From the SEC: "EJR and Egan made a settlement offer that the Commission determined to accept. Under the settlement, EJR and Egan agreed to be barred for at least 18 months from rating asset-backed and government securities issuers as an NRSRO. EJR and Egan also agreed to correct the deficiencies found by SEC examiners in 2012, and submit a report – signed by Egan under penalty of perjury — detailing steps the firm has taken." Hopefully the world is no longer insolvent in July of 2014 when this ban runs out.
Call it "X Date", call it "D(elinquent/efault)-Day", call it what you will: it is simply the day past which the US government will no longer be able to rely on "extraordinary measure" to delay the day of reckoning, and will be unable to pay all its bills without recourse to additional debt. It is not the day when the US defaults, at least not defaults on its debt. It will begin "defaulting" on various financial obligations, such as not paying due bills on time and in full, but since this is something Europe's periphery has been doing for years, it is hardly catastrophic. It will hardly be pleasant, however, as some 40% of government obligations go unfunded, and the US is converted to a walking, talking bankruptcy as unsecured claimants rush to demand priority, as the market, long living on hope and prayer, realizes that only now is it truly without a cliff under its feet, and most importantly, as suddenly $500 billion in maturing debt between February 15 and March 1 finds itself in a very, very precarious position.