ratings

Morgan Stanley: Here Comes "The Three-Headed Policy Monster"

"Congress will return Labor Day to face what my colleague Michael Zezas calls a “three-headed policy monster”: Raising the debt ceiling, passing a budget and embarking on tax reform. None are easy, but we see the debt ceiling as the most immediate test."

BofA: "This Is The Key Risk-Off Signal" Ahead Of This Autumn's "Big Fall"

An imminent Aug/Sept "big fall" trade is plausible if poor politics shows up in consumer confidence, US high yield credit spreads gap toward 500bps; tech leadership reversal, and most importantly, if the US dollar rises despite lower UST yields and further drop in US presidential approval ratings.

Analyst Lays Out China's "Doomsday" Scenario

According to Autonomous analyst Charlene Chu, bad debt in China’s financial system will reach as much as $7.6 trillion by the end of this year: an estimate which implies a staggering bad-debt ratio of 34%, orders of magnitude above the official number, and nothing short of a "doomsday scenario" for China's financial system if accurate.