ratings

Is Portugal The Next "Shoe To Drop" In Europe?

Portugal 10-year yields imply that investors are starting to get a little worried about an October ratings decision that could make Portugal the EU's next big bailout candidate.

Frontrunning: August 23

  • Dollar Drops on Rate Outlook as European Stocks Rise, Oil Falls (BBG)
  • Bank of Japan's rush into stocks raises fears of market distortions (Reuters)
  • With Moderate Drinking Under Fire, Alcohol Companies Go on Offensive (WSJ)
  • Merkel Says Brexit Is U.K.’s Loss While Pledging EU Results (BBG)
  • Turkey cuts rates for sixth straight month amid ratings worries (Reuters)

Who's Going To Pick Up The UK Tab?

A large part of the reason why the UK had to be such a significant net contributor was that most EU members couldn’t scrape up their “fair share.” Who’s going to pick up the tab when that flow of revenue ends?

US Futures Fall, European Stocks Rise As Stronger Dollar Sends Oil Lower

European stocks rose and US S&P futures fell after the dollar strengthened following the latest hawkish comments from Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer signalled that a 2016 rate hike is still being considered and again boosted speculation that US rates will rise this year. The rising dollar pressured commodities and notably oil, which dropped 2% breaking a 7 days stretch of increases; emerging markets retreated. 

Mike Rowe Slams Celebrity Political Endorsements: Election Is Like "The Final Episode Of American Idol"

"Regardless of their political agenda, my celebrity pals are fundamentally mistaken about our “civic duty” to vote. There is simply no such thing. Voting is a right, not a duty, and not a moral obligation. Like all rights, the right to vote comes with some responsibilities, but lets face it - the bar is not set very high... Donald and Hillary are there because we put them there... The electorate has tolerated the intolerable. We’ve treated this entire process like the final episode of ‘American Idol.’ What did we expect?”

Portuguese Bonds Slump As Last-Investment-Grade-Standing Falters

The only thing standing between Portugal's insanely decoupled low bond yields and the ugly fundamental reality is a BBB rating from DBRS which enables The ECB to keep buying the nation's bonds. The problem is, pressure is mounting on DBRS (the only 1 of 4 raters to maintain Portugal as investment grade) to drop the hammer... and Portuguese risk is rising.

"It’s Surreal" - Negative Yielding Debt Rises To Record $13.4 Trillion

“It’s surreal,” said Gregory Peters, senior investment officer at Prudential Fixed Income "Regarding negative yields he added that “It’s clear that central banks are dominating markets. There’s a race to the bottom. Central banks are the main drivers of this, it’s not fundamental."

Portugal Gaining On Italy In The European Banking "Doom Loop"

Portugal’s doom loop metric has soared over the past two years.  Portuguese banks have been gorging on Portuguese sovereign debt, taking it from 7 percent of total assets to 10 percent - the same level as Spain.  If they continuing loading up at this pace, they will reach Italian levels by 2018.

Merkel Urges German CEOs To Hire Refugees

Merkel has invited executives from some of Germany's biggest listed companies to attend a summit next month where she will urge them to hire more refugees. According to Germany's Bild, the government wants to get as many as possible refugees into the job market, which would reduce their dependence on the state. This is great news for Deutsche Bank, which now has many potential candidates for a "scapegoat" CEO as the company's woes accelerate.

Trump Backpedals, Says Accusing Obama Of Founding ISIS Was "Sarcasm"

In another unexpected retreat by Trump, the republican presidential nominee tweeted earlier today that his comment which again took the media by storm, when he said that Obama and Hillary were the "founder and co-founder of ISIS", was "sarcasm" even as he reaffirmed what he "meant" in a radio interview last night.

Erdogan Threatens To Abandon US Dollar In Trade With Russia

According to Turkey's Gunes newspaper, which said that as part of the discussion between Putin and Erdogan on Tuesday, the Turkish president suggested to abandon the US dollar in bilateral trade between Turkey and Russia, and instead to transact directly in lira and rubles.

Citi Lays Out The "Black Swans" That Donald Trump Would Unleash If He Becomes President

With less than 90 days left until the presidential election, Citi's Dana Paterson writes that the "election risks clock starts now." Here is how Citi previews the upcoming US election which "may generate extremely high uncertainty that likely will impose a significant drag on economic growth", and Citi's breakdown of Black Swans, mostly associated with a Trump presidency.