ratings

European Union Launches Investigation Into Manipulation of Oil Prices Since 2002

Since "it just doesn't matter" anymore, we hope that soon financial network TV, plagued by the lowest ratings in a decade for the simple fact that nobody cares anymore what Federal Reserve Capital LP does, will at least invite some funnier guests, such as Bill Murray, to dispense hot stock tips.

Those hoping for a slew of negative news to push stocks much higher today will be disappointed in this largely catalyst-free day. So far today we have gotten only the ECB's weekly 3y LTRO announcement whereby seven banks will repay a total of €1.1 billion from both LTRO issues, as repayments slow to a trickle because the last thing the ECB, which was rumored to be inquiring banks if they can handle negative deposit rates earlier in the session, needs is even more balance sheet contraction. The biggest economic European economic data point was the EU construction output which contracted for a fifth consecutive month, dropping -1.7% compared to -0.3% previously, and tumbled 7.9% from a year before.  Elsewhere, Spain announced trade data for March, which printed at yet another surplus of €0.63 billion, prompted not so much by soaring exports which rose a tiny 2% from a year ago to €20.3 billion but due to a collapse in imports of 15% to €19.7 billion - a further sign that the Spanish economy is truly contracting even if the ultimate accounting entry will be GDP positive. More importantly for Spain, the country reported a March bad loan ratio - which has been persistently underreproted - at 10.5% up from 10.4% in February. We will have more to say on why this is the latest and greatest ticking timebomb for the Eurozone shortly.

Obviously with Buffett a major shareholder of Moody's, the only place where a downgrade of Berkshire could come from was S&P. Moments ago, the rating agency that dared to downgrade the US for which it is being targeted by Eric Holder's Department of "Justice", did just that.

• Once a beacon, Obama under fire over civil liberties (Reuters)
• Eurozone in longest recession since birth of currency bloc (FT)
• EU Oil Manipulation Probe Shines Light on Platts Pricing Window (BBG)
• BMWs Cheaper Than Hyundais in Korea as Tariffs Crumble (BBG)
• Stock Boom Isn't a Bubble, Says BOJ's Kuroda (WSJ)
• Struggling France strives to shake off economic gloom (FT)
• JPMorgan investors take heat off Dimon (FT)
• Private-Equity Firms Build Instead of Buy (WSJ)
• Bloomberg Saga Highlights Clash Between Two Worlds (WSJ)
• Bank documents portray Cyprus as Russia's favorite haven (Reuters)
• HSBC Signals 14,000 Jobs Cuts in $3 Billion Savings Plan (BBG)
• Argentines Hold More Than $50 Billion in U.S. Currency (BBG)

With home prices rising at near-record paces in SoCal, corporate debt yields at record-lows, equity markets surging at near-record rates, and high quality assets dwindling by the minute under the heel of a central bank jack boot; it is perhaps no surprise that investors have switched from finding leverage through the balance sheet (i.e. crappy quality firms) to finding leverage through the instrument (i.e. structured credit). The trouble this time is that yields (and spreads) being so low, the creators of the new-normal ABS, CDOs, and CLOs have to stoop to the old tricks to make their money (as we noted here). As Bloomberg reports, bond issuers are once again exploiting the credit rating agency pay-for-performance business model to create "high-quality" collateralizable assets from utter garbage - such as auto loans.

• Hilsenrath: A Top Contender at the Fed Faces Test Over Easy Money (WSJ)
• Yen drops further as G7 avoids criticizing Japan (Reuters)
• Markets missed Flaherty’s clues on next Bank of Canada chief (G&M)
• Republicans turn screws over Tea Party tax probes (FT)
• Dual-track Libor replacement lined up (FT)
• Risks to China recovery seen as factory output underwhelms (Reuters)
• Barack Obama’s goal of universal healthcare could be set back significantly by Texas Governor Rick Perry (FT)
• Gold Bears Pull $20.8 Billion as BlackRock Says Buy (BBG)
• Mexico sets shelters as volcano shakes, spews ash (AP)
• Europe Eases Corporate Tax Dodge as Worker Burdens Rise (BBG)
• IPOs Set to Raise Most Cash Since Crisis (WSJ)
• Melting Ice Opens Fight Over Sea Routes for Arctic Debate (BBG)
• Top hedge funds bet on Greek banks (FT)
• Icahn Asks Investors to Make Big Bet on a Debt-Laden Dell (BBG)

The Chairman is about to take the lectern to discuss bank structure and competition at the SIFI conference at the Chicago Fed. His prepared remarks are likely to be a little less exciting than the Q&A where the world will be watching for the words "buy, buy, buy", "mission accomplished", or "taper". Charles Evans will be his lead out man. Finally, since Bernanke will be discussing shadow banking, or the source of some $30 trillion in shadow money always ignored by Keynesians, Monetarists and Magic Money Tree (MMT) growers, a topic we have discussed over the past three years, here is the TBAC's own summary on how Modern Money really works.

Just in case conventional wisdom thought there was some limit beyond which financial crime and fraud in the US would or could not cross, here comes the city of Harrisburg, bankrupt for nearly two years, proving everyone wrong as usual. 'The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged the City of Harrisburg, Pa., with securities fraud for its misleading public statements when its financial condition was deteriorating and financial information available to municipal bond investors was either incomplete or outdated." Of course, if one is sinking, might as well take down as many as possible with it, because in the long-run, etc... right Keynesian fanatics?

Most of the SAREB's loans are linked to finished properties, for which it might be easier to find a buyer, but 4.3 percent are for unfinished developments and nearly 10 percent are for empty lots, for which there is little or no demand. Nearly all of the foreclosed properties in its portfolio are empty, including apartment blocks far outside big cities. Only 6,000 of nearly 83,000 housing units have tenants.

• Lesson From Buffett: Doubt Yourself (WSJ)
• Gold Bulls Split With Buffett as Traders Say Sell (BBG)
• Apple Misses IPhone Customers as Global Carriers Balk (BBG)
• Russia extends Cypriot loan by 2 years, cuts interest: troika document (Reuters)
• Tax Rewrite in Play in Capitol (WSJ)
• No early warning for U.S. on Israeli strikes in Syria (Reuters)
• Germany riveted at start of neo-Nazi murder trial (Reuters)
• JPMorgan Investors Urged to Split Chairman Role, Oust Directors (BBG)
• Leniency for Offshore Cheats (WSJ)
• Brussels steps up efforts over tax avoidance (FT)
• Ambulance chasing: Mesothelioma Doctors, Lawyers Join Hunt for Valuable Asbestos Cases (WSJ)
• Web Sales-Tax Bill Set to Face Bumps (WSJ)
• Colleges Cut Prices by Providing More Financial Aid (WSJ)

• Euro-Area Unemployment Increases to Record 12.1% Amid Recession (BBG)
• Fed faces calls for radical reform (FT) - Has Jamie Dimon approved of this message? No? Carry on then
• CEO Pay 1,795-to-1 Multiple of Wages Skirts U.S. Law (BBG)
• Ex-UBS Executive Convicted of Paid Sex With Underage Girl (BBG)
• Six months after Sandy, New York fuel supply chain still vulnerable (Reuters)
• Older, richer shoppers lead Japan’s surge in consumer spending (FT)
• Sharp euro zone inflation fall, joblessness point to ECB rate cut (G&M)
• Gold Rush From Dubai to Turkey Saps Supply as Premiums Jump (BBG)
• Japan Industrial Output, Retail Sales Disappoint (MW)
• Gunmen surround Libyan justice ministry (Reuters)
• Insider-Trading Probe Trains Lens on Boards (WSJ)
• Best Buy exits Europe (WSJ)
• Banker Roommates Follow Zuckerberg Not Blankfein With IvyConnect (BBG)

• Reinhart and Rogoff: Responding to Our Critics (NYT)
• Differences with centre-right delay Italy's Letta (Reuters)
• Italy's Letta moves forward to shape government (Reuters)
• China’s leaders warn on financial risks (FT)
• Norway oil fund makes big move from bonds to stocks (FT) - worked wonders for the Bank of Israel
• Smuggling milk is the new smuggling heroin in HK: Milk Smugglers Top Heroin Courier Arrests in Hong Kong (BBG)
• RenTec's mean reversion models fail on BOJ lunacy: Yen Bets Don't Add Up for a Fund Giant (WSJ)
• From 'Fabulous Fab' to Grad Student (WSJ)
• BOJ in credibility test as divisions emerge over inflation target (Reuters)
• Boston Bombing Suspect Moved from hospital to prison (WSJ)
• Provopoulos Says ECB May Never Need to Use Bond-Buying Program (BBG) which is good because, legally, it doesn't exist

• China’s Recovery Falters as Manufacturing Growth Cools (BBG)
• Gloomy eurozone output points to rate cut (FT)
• Limit Austerity, EU appartchik Barroso Says (WSJ)
• Regulators Get Banks to Rein In Bonus Pay (WSJ)
• SEC looks to ease rules for launching ETFs (Reuters)
• Easy come, easy go: U.S. Seizes $21 Million From Electric Car Maker Fisker (WSJ)
• Japan nationalists near disputed isles (Reuters)
• OECD in fresh warning on Japan debt (FT)
• S&P says more than one-third chance of Japan downgrade, cites risks to Abenomics (Reuters)

An attempt to look ahead at the drivers of the capital markets in the week ahead.