The only thing standing between Portugal's insanely decoupled low bond yields and the ugly fundamental reality is a BBB rating from DBRS which enables The ECB to keep buying the nation's bonds. The problem is, pressure is mounting on DBRS (the only 1 of 4 raters to maintain Portugal as investment grade) to drop the hammer... and Portuguese risk is rising.
Culminating with the tipping of the UK's numerous real estate fund "dominoes" and the subsequent fallout in the wake Brexit, Fitch has been on a ratings-slashing spree, having cut the credit ratings on 14 nations so far in 2016, most recently that of the United Kingdom - a record downgrade pace for the rating agency.
Witness true research that reveals true facts, that unlocks true alpha, aka VALUE! Banco Popular is walking down the same path as Bear Stearns. We should know, we called out Bear in January 2008, and we called out BP months ago.
Zimbabwe is set to print its own version of the US dollar, as an ailing economy fuels a severe cash shortage in the southern African nation. John Mangudya, Zimbabwe’s central bank governor, said Thursday the so-called bond notes will be backed by $200 million in support from the Africa Export-Import Bank. The specially designed dollar notes will come in denominations of two, five, 10 and 20. They will also have the same value as their U.S. dollar equivalents. The bond notes are an extension of so-called bond coins of one, five, 10 and 25 cents which the central bank introduced in 2014 and are pegged to the value of the U.S. dollar.
I called it once in January 2008 (Bear). I called it 2x in March 2008 (Lehman), and I'm calling it again in 2016. Don't say you didn't know. These proclamations of trust will truly put my analysis - and your capital - to the test.
Back in December we warned that Brazil faced a "disastrous downgrade debacle" that would eventually see the beleaguered South American nation cut to junk by all three major ratings agencies. Moments ago, that prediction was borne out.
The imbalances that low rates and elasticity produce may “return us to the modern-day equivalent of the divisive competitive devaluations of the interwar years; and, ultimately, [trigger] an epoch-defining seismic rupture in policy regimes, back to an era of trade and financial protectionism and, possibly, stagnation combined with inflation.”
Don't look now, but Brussels’ preferred Spanish PM is about to be ousted by a coalition of leftist parties, and that, in turn, suggests that the idea of fiscal retrenchment will be thrown out, along with anything that even looks like austerity. That could trigger a showdown between Madrid and Brussels over Spain’s intention to adhere to EU deficit targets.
From EM darling to depression, it's been a rough ride for the "B" in BRICS. As we kick off 2016, analysts are growing increasingly concerned that Brazil's economic downturn could well be deeper and longer than anyone expected. The market's collapsing expectations are summarized in one stunning chart.