ratings

Cable Crashes To 7 Year Lows As Brexit Battle Begins

With the UK's referendum on EU membership due in four months, it appears the market is gravely concerned about the possibility of Brexit. Despite the unleashing of Project Fear (both military and corporate fearmongery), cable (GBPUSD) has crashed 2.3% (the most in 7 years) to its lowest in 7 years, and both FX volatility and credit risk Brexit indicators are soaring to record highs.

Frontrunning: February 22

  • Futures sharply higher as oil extends gains (Reuters)
  • Global Stocks Gain on Rising Commodities Prices, China (WSJ)
  • Pound in freefall as Boris Johnson sparks Brexit fears (Telegraph)
  • Pound Slides Most Since 2009 as Johnson Backs ‘Brexit’ Campaign (BBG)
  • Oil Glut Will Persist Into 2017 as IEA Sees Prices Capped (BBG)
  • Japanese Seeking a Place to Stash Cash Start Snapping Up Safes (WSJ)

Markets Surge On Chinese Debt Flood; Worst European PMI In Over A Year; Crashing Pound

Propped up by the Chinese central bank and by a generous Chinese finance ministry, with further hopes a backsliding European economy will mean even more easing by Draghi, the risk on mood is back: "People are willing to take risk again,” Karl Goody, a private wealth manager at Shaw and Partners Ltd. in Sydney told Bloomberg. “People are looking at the selloff this year and saying: enough is enough, there’s been enough pain now."

Hillary Clinton’s Six Foreign-Policy Catastrophes

Many commentators have mentioned that Hillary Clinton left behind no major achievement as the U.S. Secretary of State; but, actually, she did. Unfortunately, all of her major achievements were bad, and some were catastrophic. Six countries were especially involved: Honduras, Haiti, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, and Ukraine. The harm she did to each country was not in the interest of the American people, and it was disastrous for the residents there. Hillary Clinton at every campaign debate says “I have a better track-record,” and that she’s “a progressive who gets things done.” Here’s what she has actually done when she was Secretary of State...

The Chilling Ways The Current Global Economy Echoes The 1930s Depression Era

The imbalances that low rates and elasticity produce may “return us to the modern-day equivalent of the divisive competitive devaluations of the interwar years; and, ultimately, [trigger] an epoch-defining seismic rupture in policy regimes, back to an era of trade and financial protectionism and, possibly, stagnation combined with inflation.”

Irony? "Credit Crash Warning" Icahn May Be Cut To Junk By S&P

Having warned - correctly - of the impending collapse of the US credit markets last year, it just seems ironic that Carl Icahn's firm has been downgraded to "watch negative" from stable by S&P, implying a cut to junk may be imminent. Just as we detailed earlier, activist investors have suffered greatly in the oil rout, and S&P cites declining investment values in the firm's portfolio, which have smashed the loan-to-value ratio up to 45% (a crucial threshold for the ratings agency).

Biggest Short Squeeze In 7 Years Continues After Bullard Hints At More QE, OECD Cuts Global Forecasts

Just when traders thought that the biggest and most violent 3-day short squeeze in 7 years was about to end a squeeze that has resulted in 3 consecutve 1%+ sessions for the S&P for the first time since October 2011, overnight we got one of the Fed's biggest faux-hakws, St. Louis Fed's Jim Bullard, who said that it would be "unwise" to continue hiking rates at this moment, and hinted that "if needed", the most natural option for the Fed going forward would be to do further Q.E.

Buybacks Must Continue: AAPL, IBM Unveil Major Debt Issuance To Fund Shareholder-Friendliness

With investment grade credit risk soaring, it's now or never for many firms to lever up at "relatively" low costs and two of the biggest buyback-ers are stepping up to the debt issuance window this week. Perhaps helping to explain the carnage in Treasuries at the end of last week (as rate-locks are set), Apple has unveiled a 10-part deal which could price today and IBM a 7 part deal. No size is indicated yet but Apple's previous two issuances were $8bn and $6.5bn.

Neil Howe Warns The 'Professional Class' Is Still In Denial Of The Fourth Turning

"The world has fundamentally shifted over the last decade, especially since we’ve emerged from the Great Recession... But the professional class has been very slow to understand what is going on, not just quantitatively but qualitatively in a new generational configuration that I call the Fourth Turning. They don’t accept the new normal. They keep insisting, just two or three years out there on the horizon, that the old normal will return – in GDP growth, in housing starts, in global trade. But it doesn’t return."