• Tim Knight from...
    04/28/2016 - 00:27
    I was expecting a few boring candidate statements of the U.S. Senate - AKA the World's Most Exclusive Club - but, boy, was I wrong. Just take a look at some of these gems.
  • Tim Knight from...
    04/28/2016 - 00:27
    I was expecting a few boring candidate statements of the U.S. Senate - AKA the World's Most Exclusive Club - but, boy, was I wrong. Just take a look at some of these gems.

ratings

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Show Of Hands: Who's Interested In A CDO Backed By A Pool Of Subordinated Community Bank Debt?





Are you a yield-starved investor? Joshua Siegel has a deal he wants to sell you and it involves subordinated loans originated by "35 community banks, some of them so small they don’t have credit ratings." 

 
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Good Luck, Canada





The US has seen that movie before, it's not a happy ending. Oh, and enjoy that AAA credit rating while it lasts.

 
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In Latest Humiliation For Illinois, Fitch Downgrades State's Credit Rating To BBB+





Last week, beleaguered Illinois Comptroller Leslie Geissler Munger admitted that, thanks to the bitter budget battle going on in Springfield, the state would miss a $560 million pension payment in November. Now, in a move that shouldn't exactly surprise anyone, Fitch has cut the state's GO rating citing the budget impasse. The move affects some $27 billion in debt.

 
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Malaysian Lawmakers Call For No Confidence Vote Against PM Amid Goldman Slush Fund Probe





"Najib has tarnished the country’s image in the world and caused investors to lose faith in the government. Malaysians do not believe in this prime minister."

 
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Be Very Afraid: "The 3 EM Debacles" Loom, HSBC Warns





"In many ways, EM is showing similar symptoms to its DM counterparts of weak economic performance and over- reliance on credit. The outcome is what we call the three EM debacles: de-leveraging, depreciation (or devaluation even de-pegging) and downgrades of credit ratings."

 
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Ignorance Is Not Bliss





You’re doing yourself a disservice if you don't have a basic working knowledge of what, say, a volatility surface means. We're not saying that we all have to become volatility traders to survive in the market jungle today, any more than we all have to become game theorists to avoid being the sucker at the Fed’s communication policy table. And if you want to remove yourself as much as possible from the machines, then find a niche in the public markets where dark strategies have little sway. Muni bonds, say, or MLPs. The machines will find you eventually, but for now you’re safe. But if you’re a traditional investor whose sandbox includes big markets like the S&P 500, then you’re only disadvantaging yourself by ignoring this stuff. Ignorance is not bliss...

 
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Fitch Downgrades Brazil From BBB To BBB-, Outlook Negative - Full Text





Brazil's economic recession is likely to be deeper and longer than Fitch's earlier expectations and its performance has diverged materially from those of its rating peers. Medium-term prospects also look weak compared to peers and most other large emerging markets. Fitch forecasts that Brazil's economy will contract by 3% and 1%, respectively in 2015 and 2016 before recording modest growth in 2017, with risks skewed largely to the downside.

 
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It Begins - Managed High Yield Bond Fund Liquidates After 17 Years





Since inception in June 1998, UBS' Managed High Yield Plus Fund survived through the dot-com (and Telco) collapse and the post-Lehman credit carnage but, based on the press release today, has been felled by the current credit cycle's crash. After 3 years of trading at an increasingly large discount to NAV, and plunging to its worst levels since the peak of the financial crisis, the board of the Fund has approved a proposal to liquidate the Fund. While timing is unclear, this is the worst case for an increasingly fragile cash bond market as BWICs galore are set to hit with "liquidty thin to zero."

 
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Bond Market Breaking Bad - Credit Downgrades Highest Since 2009





Despite The Fed's best efforts to crush the business cycle, the crucial credit-cycle has reared its ugly head as releveraging firms (gotta fund those buybacks) and deflationary pressures (liabilities fixed, assets tumble) have led to a soaring market cost of capital and surge in downgrades. In fact, in the latest quarter, the ratio of upgrades-to-downgrades is its weakest since the peak of the financial crisis in 2009. “We’re seeing more widespread weakness across more industry sectors in the U.S... It’s become broader than just the commodity story.”

 
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Dell Buys EMC In Record $67BN Deal: Creates "World's Largest Private Integrated Tech Company"





Just when you thought the M&A boom is over after a surge in bond yields that Goldman has repeatedly dubbed as "recessionary", and which will make the debt cost of any funding so high that there is barely any room for execution error, moments ago as had been extensively leaked previously, private Dell announced it would acquire tech giant EMC in a deal valued roughly $67 billion, while maintaining VMWare as a publicly-traded corporation. Good luck with raising the tens of billions in debt the deal will require: our best wish to Barclays, BofA, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, RBC who will all be underwriting the required debt financing to Dell.

 
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Biggest Weekly Stock Rally Since 2012 Continues Driven By Tumbling Dollar, Dovish Fed; Commodities Surge





The global risk on mood (which is really anything but, and is merely an unprecedented short covering squeeze as we will report momentarily) launched by an abysmal jobs report one week ago and "validated" yesterday by the surprisingly dovish FOMC minutes, which said nothing new but merely confirmed what most knew, namely that a rate hike is almost certain to not occur until mid-2016 if ever, and accelerated by a Fed-driven collapse in the dollar which overnight has led to a historic 3.4% move in the Indonesian Rupiah the most since 2008, has pushed global stocks even higher in their biggest weekly rally since 2012, despite the start of an earnings season where virtually every single company reporting so far has stumbled on earnings reports that were far worse than even gloomy consensus had expected.

 
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The First Crack: Deutsche Bank Preannounces Massive Loss, May Cut Dividend





Deutsche Bank warned it expects to record a third-quarter loss of $7 billion, tied to a huge write-down in its corporate-banking-and-securities segment.  The bank said the charges are driven by the impact of expected higher regulatory capital requirements and its disposal of Postbank. It also said it will consider reducing or eliminating its common dividend for fiscal 2015.

DEUTSCHE BANK SEES 3Q NET LOSS EUR 6.2 BLN
DEUTSCHE BANK TO RECOMMEND DIVIDEND CUT OR POSSIBLE ELIMINATION

 
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As A Shocking $100 Billion In Glencore Debt Emerges, The Next Lehman Has Arrived





And now the real shocker: there is over US$100bn in gross financial exposure to Glencore. From BofA: "We estimate the financial system's exposure to Glencore at over US$100bn, and believe a significant majority is unsecured. The group's strong reputation meant that the buildup of these exposures went largely without comment. However, the recent widening in GLEN debt spreads indicates the exposure is now coming into investor focus."

 
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