ratings

Although it may be unrealistically optimistic, I believe my paraphrase of a Churchill quote:

“Central Bankers will eventually do the right thing and return to a gold standard after they have exhausted all other alternatives.”

• Invade Syria already, we know you will: Islamic State in Syria abducts at least 150 Christians (Reuters)
• Greece Struggles to Get Citizens to Pay Their Taxes (WSJ)
• Doubts Shadow Deal to Extend Greek Bailout (WSJ)
• In surprise result, Chicago's Mayor Emanuel faces election run-off (Reuters)
• Obama vetoes Keystone pipeline bill (Reuters)
• Another sign of the top: Cushman & Wakefield Going Up for Sale (WSJ)
• Lure of Wall Street Cash Said to Skew Credit Ratings (BBG) ... and threat of DOJ lawsuits also
• Oil rises to $59 as Saudis say demand growing (Reuters)

The political-financial drama Grexit was greenlighted for a 5th season, as new characters and new narratives have reinvigorated a series that was clearly flagging in mid-2014. Given the sleepy subplots that dominated the 2014 series, industry insiders were anticipating a cancellation. Insiders would neither confirm nor deny the rumor, but they promised a "show unlike any other" this season.

Having put Russia on review in mid-January, Moody's has decided (somewhat unsurprisingly) to downgrade Russia's sovereign debt rating to Ba1 (from Baa3) with continuing negative outlook. The reasons:

*MOODY'S SAYS RUSSIA EXPECTED TO HAVE DEEP RECESSION IN '15, CONTINUED CONTRACTION IN '16
*MOODY'S SEE RUSSIA DEBT METRICS LIKELY DETERIORATING COMING YRS

We assume the low external debt, considerable reserves, lack of exposure to US Treasuries, and major gold backing were not considered useful? Moody's concludes the full statement (below) by noting that they are unlikely to raise Russian sovereign debt rating in the near-term.

• Greece requests euro zone loan extension, offers big concessions (Reuters)
• Germany Rejects Loan Request Saying Greece Must Meet Conditions (BBG)
• Did the Fed Just Enter the Currency Wars (BBG)
• French consumer prices fall for first time since 2009 (Reuters)
• Oil falls sharply after U.S. crude inventories rise (Reuters)
• High-Speed Firm Virtu Revives IPO Plans (WSJ)
• Fed Tiptoes Into Rate-Hike Debate (Hilsenrath)
• Rajoy’s Nemesis Is Back: Anti-Graft Editor Targets Vote (BBG)

Today, for the first time, the ECB released minutes from its historic January 21-22 meeting during which the ECB unleashed QE. While hardly containing anything earthshattering, here are the main highlights.

The 2015 World Press Freedom Index highlights the worldwide drastic decline in freedom of information in 2014. The rise in overall violations of freedom of information was evident in all continents, but for America - the bastion of press freedom in the land of the free and "the most transparenet administration ever" - fell once again... to 49th!!

• Greece will do 'whatever it can' to reach deal with EU (Reuters)
• ECB Urges Greek Political Deal as Emergency Cash Is Tight (BBG)
• Fighting rages in run-up to Ukraine ceasefire (Reuters)
• Eurozone GDP Picks Up, Thanks to Germany (WSJ)
• Two J. P. Morgan Executives Connected to Asia Hiring Probe Pushed Out (WSJ)
• Putin's High Tolerance for Pain and Europe's Reluctance to Inflict It (BBG)
• Indigestion Hits Top U.S. Food Firms (WSJ)
• Alibaba's Jack Ma seeks to reassure employees over U.S. lawsuits (Reuters)

After paying governments, you'll be paying corporates...

The future of Europe now depends on something apparently impossible: Greece and Germany must strike a deal.

Star News Anchor’s Fib In Context

Just as the existing 'truce' in Ukraine has been made a total farce as 1000s of military and civilians have been killed, so any 'hope' that this weekend's "peace efforts" will result in anything but more talk is rapidly diminishing... Germany's Merkel exclaimed honestly that it's "uncertain whether this will be successful," seemingly resigned to the fact as she added, "but it's at least worth making an attempt." French President Hollande admitted that Ukraine's eastern regions likely need "strong autonomy." Ukraine's Poroshenko blustered that he "trusts" Merkel, that the economy is collapsing (more money please), that the country does not need peacekeepers and a lack of arms is fueling conflict (so send us weapons) while pushing for a Russian withdrawal and quick cease-fire.  Finally Vladimir Putin blasted that Russia is unwilling to tolerate a post-Cold War global system dominated by one absolute leader, to which US VP Joe Biden remarked simply "get out of Ukraine." But apart from that, talks are going great...

The current controversy enveloping the news anchor for NBC Brian Williams is both growing in furor as well as out right shock. As many of you have probably heard he has come under direct fire that is quite real as opposed to the fictional accounts he’s been extolling about a helicopter incident he had in Iraq a few years ago. The main stream media (especially that of television) is currently in the death throes of any semblance of credibility, let alone believability. As more and more incidents resembling the likes of these continue, the quicker as well as scope of their ratings failures will persist. For this is no longer a symptom – it’s now a full-blown metastasized cancer plaguing the main stream media as a whole.

Update: And now this: "Moody's places Greece's Caa1 government bond rating on review for downgrade"

Europe has an unpleasant habit of dropping tape bombs at the most inopportune of times, like at 3pm or later a Friday. And while on Wednesday it was the ECB yanking repoable Greek collateral for local banks, today it was first S&P, which downgraded Greece 5 months after upgrading it, and moments ago it was none other than the Cyprus bail-in man himself, the Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem  who just have Greece a 10 day ultimatum to fall into place or risk a terminal bank run and capital controls (both hinted at earlier by the post-DOJ settlement political "rating agency')

• GREECE MUST APPLY FOR BAILOUT EXTENSION ON FEB 16 AT THE LATEST TO KEEP EURO ZONE FINANCIAL BACKING -EUROGROUP CHAIRMAN DIJSSELBLOEM

This means that Greece now has 10 days, or until the Monday after next to decide whether it will stay in the Eurozone or Grexit.

And the hits keep coming. On the heels of a demand for repayment of ECB's profits from GGB bond gains and to extend the T-Bill limit to give the nation time to negotiate with EU leaders (i.e. a Bridge Loan) which Jeroen Dijsselbloem already dismissed earlier in the day, S&P just piled on...

GREECE RATINGS CUT TO B- FROM B BY S&P; MAY BE CUT FURTHER

This downgrade comes just 5 months after upgrading Greece because "risks to fiscal consolidation in Greece have abated." EURUSD is not moving much (having already cratered after US payrolls) but Greek stock ETFs are sliding once again.