With his fund down ~50% YTD, one wonders if Crispin Odey should be thinking about quietly exiting stage left after a long and mostly illustrious career. However, as his latest letter suggests, Odey is just getting his second, or maybe third, wind and is confident that he will ultimately win the war against central bankers.
Is this a full-blown mutiny? Or did Democrats just reach the fifth stage of grief - "acceptance"? In a NYTimes op-ed, they begin by claiming that "President Obama will be remembered as a thoughtful and dignified president, but admit his legacy regrettably includes the more than 1,000 Democrats who lost their elections during his two terms. Republicans now have total control in half of America’s states...Why such political carnage?"
As we head into 2017, trying to predict the markets is often quite pointless. The risk for investors is “willful blindness” that builds when complacency reaches extremes. It is worth remembering that the bullish mantra we hear today is much the same as it was in both 1999 and 2007. We don’t need to remind you what happened next.
"No president-elect before him — even the current president — was bowed down to in this regard. Not because the media loves Trump, of course, but it loves the ad revenue he generates via boffo ratings."
After struggling to raise debt from third parties to repair crumbling infrastructure, the state of New Jersey has come up with a clever approach to fundraising that entails selling debt to their own insolvent pension funds...something we've dubbed the "Pension Ponzi Squared."
Moody's has cut Italy's long-term senior unsecuredd government debt rating outlook from 'stable' to 'negative', leaving it at Baa2 for now. Citing "slow and halting progress" on economic and fiscal reform in Italy, noting that reduction in Italy’s large debt burden will be further postponed given subdued medium-term growth prospects, recent fiscal slippage.
Moments ago Fitch added some more fuel to the Italian bank fire when it announce it has changed its outlook on Italian banks to negative, a reflection of "its increased vulnerability to shocks following the asset-quality deterioration in legacy portfolios. A step-up in pressure from authorities and market participants on the sector to reduce the very high levels of impaired loans has increased urgency and risks for Italian banks"
Less than a month after the "shocking" election of Donald Trump as US president, the world prepares for another day of political shockwaves, this time out of Europe, when on Sunday all eyes will be on Italy and, to a slightly lesser extent, Austria.
While the post-Trump euphoria in US stocks has been the perfect distraction from the ugly realities elsewhere, this weekend's Italian Referendum could well be the biggest 'revolt' yet, topping Brexit and Trump. Should Italy vote "no", as polls forecast, PM Renzi may quit, leaving the Italian bank recapitalization would then be in jeopardy and, as Bloomberg's Mark Cranfield warns "we could be looking at a Greece-like market reaction on steroids."