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Tyler Durden's picture

How The Petrodollar Quietly Died, And Nobody Noticed





The Petrodollar, long serving as the US leverage to encourage and facilitate USD recycling, and a steady reinvestment in US-denominated assets by the Oil exporting nations, and thus a means to steadily increase the nominal price of all USD-priced assets, just drove itself into irrelevance. A consequence of this year's dramatic drop in oil prices, the shift is likely to cause global market liquidity to fall.  This decline follows years of windfalls for oil exporters such as Russia, Angola, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria. Much of that money found its way into financial markets, helping to boost asset prices and keep the cost of borrowing down, through so-called petrodollar recycling. But no more: "this year the oil producers will effectively import capital amounting to $7.6 billion.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Thoughts On Prosperity In America





After peaking in 1999 at 37%, the prosperity line has gradually declined since, and is now sitting at 34%. In between there was a housing boom and a global financial crash, both with noticeable effects on the line. That decline may not sound like much, but it will take years to rebuild all that wealth – assuming that the economy is moving in the right direction. And it was exactly at the bottom of the earnings scale that things got pretty bad. People earning less than $35,000 per year went from 31% at the turn of the century to 34% today, more or less matching the decline in percentage points at the top of the table. The new century brought a lot more discomfort to a growing number of Americans, fueling a lot of talk recently about income inequality in the country. Therefore, despite all the subsequent economic growth, large fiscal stimulus packages, unprecedented Federal Reserve intervention and booming capital markets, we could say that PROSPERITY IN AMERICA PEAKED IN 1999!

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Who Will Suffer From A Leveraged Credit Shakeout?





Marty Fridson, CIO at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, has been a leading figure in the high-yield bond market since it was known as the "junk bond" market — and he sees as much as $1.6 trillion in high-yield defaults coming in a surge he expects to begin soon... “And this is not based on an apocalyptic forecast,” he warns.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Overnight Futures Fail To Ramp As Algos Focus On New York's First Ever Ebola Case





And just like that, the Ebola panic is back front and center, because after one week of the west African pandemic gradually disappearing from front page coverage and dropping out of sight and out of mind, suddenly Ebola has struck at global ground zero. While the consequences are unpredictable at this point, and a "follow through" infection will only set the fear level back to orange, we applaud whichever central bank has been buying futures (and the USDJPY) because they clearly are betting that despite the first ever case of Ebola in New York, that this will not result in a surge in Ebola scare stories, which as we showed a few days ago, may well have been the primary catalyst for the market freakout in the past month.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Why Advertising Revenue At CNBC Parent Comcast Declined By 5%





"For the third quarter of 2014, revenue from the Cable Networks segment increased 0.7% to $2.3 billion compared to $2.2 billion in the third quarter of 2013, reflecting a 5.1% increase in distribution revenue, partially offset by a 4.6% decline in advertising revenue, primarily due to a decline in ratings."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

How To Start A War, And Lose An Empire





"...the American scheme of world domination through military aggression and unlimited money-printing is failing before our eyes. The public has no interest in any more “boots on the ground,” bombing campaigns do nothing to reign in militants that Americans themselves helped organize and equip, dollar hegemony is slipping away with each passing day, and the Federal Reserve is fresh out of magic bullets and faces a choice between crashing the stock market and crashing the bond market. In order to stop, or at least forestall this downward slide into financial/economic/political oblivion, the US must move quickly to undermine every competing economy in the world through whatever means it has left at its disposal, be it a bombing campaign, a revolution or a pandemic..."

 
Pivotfarm's picture

Stop Smokin The Import Crack…





yes, I know it feels soooo good. Hint: China is the dealer

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The ECB Changes Its Mind Which Bonds It Will Monetize, Then It Changes It Again





To get a sense of just how chaotic, unprepared, confused and in a word, clueless the ECB is about just its "private QE", aka purchases of ABS, which should begin in the "next few days" (but certainly don't hold your breath) - let alone the monetization of public sovereign debt - here is Exhibit A. Because if you were confused about what is about to happen, don't worry: it appears the ECB hardly has any idea either, because it was just on October 7 when 40 ABS bonds were dropped from the ECB's "eligible for purchasing" list. And then, just a week later, the ECB changed its mind about changing it mind, and reinstated 19 of the ineligible bonds right back!

 
Pivotfarm's picture

Crash 2014?





Is It Fair to compare this sell off to the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

5 US Bills Straight Out Of Atlas Shrugged





With each new piece of legislation being proposed in the Land of the Free, Atlas Shrugged seems to be ever more prophetic. While even the most terrifying elements of the book are coming true, so are the reactions. People and companies are leaving, refusing the put up with the looting of their efforts any longer. Despite politicians’ desperate attempts to stop it, Atlas is already shrugging.

 
EconMatters's picture

CNN in Full Fear Mongering Mode Cashing in on Ebola





Ebola isn`t a new movie release, and CNN isn`t its viral marketing advertising agency.  

 
rcwhalen's picture

KBRA: Q3 2014 Large Bank Earnings Preview: In Search of Normalcy





The best performer among the top-five US banks is U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) and by a wide margin... 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The "Dash-For-Trash" Is Over, Goldman Flip-Flops





Just a month ago, Goldman Sachs' head progonsticator David Kostin went full bulltard, telling clients to buy high-beta, high-momentum stocks because (paraphrasing) "hedge funds suck" and will need to play catch-up. Today, his tune has changed. The "dash-for-trash" meme has outperformed dramatically in the last few years as Fed experimentation breathed life into the zombie-est weak-balance-sheet companies and traders rode that artificial wave. However,as Kostin notes, tightening financial conditions have the greatest impact on firms with high leverage and weak balance sheets; and thus, with the Fed more biased towards tightening than loosening (and the market discounting that), the "dash-for-trash" is over (as we noted in July).

 
Tyler Durden's picture

It's Official: Hewlett-Packard To Split In Two, Fire Another 5,000; Goldman Notches Second Spin-Off Success After PayPal





While the WSJ already broke the news yesterday that Hewlett Packard would split in two companies, and as such today's "shocking" announcement will hardly have the impact of the just as "surprising" split of PayPal which came on the last day of September, what is probably most notable - in addition to the news that HPQ will fire another 5,000 workers, bringing the total to 55,000 - is that just as in the case of PayPal, so for Hewlett-Packard, the financial advisor, i.e., the company which pitched the spin off to executives, was none other than Goldman. One wonders where else Goldman is advising on "spin offs" to take advantage of the bubbly stock market valuations. As a reminder, HPQ is only doing this deal and accessing the public markets now because several years ago it tried to do exactly the same thing in a private transaction with a strategic or financial buyer, and found no bids. Luckily, now we have central bank froth and pervasive risk euphoria to help management bail out at the highest possible stock price.

 
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