ratings

Another year of putting lipstick on the zombie known as the global economy, kept walking only thanks to $11 trillion in liquidity injections by the world's central banks and tens of trillions of new Chinese credit created out of thin air and promptly misallocated and embezzled, and the results are in. The bottom line: according to Nielsen, is that despite the S&P recording a whopping 53 all time highs, and the Dow rising over 18,000, the channel that was once must watch financial TV for mom and pop, and has since devolved into endless cheerleading of failed policies and rigged markets, namely CNBC, just suffered its worst year in, well, ever.

Well that didn't take long... With the smell of fireworks still lingering in the air, Bloomberg reports that Chinese developer Kaisa Group defaulted on a HK$400 million ($51.6 million) loan triggered by forced repayment terms after the firm's chairman resigned. With shares already down over 50% in December alone, trading is suspended as the company faces what S&P calls "more challenges" ahead and the 2018 bonds have collapsed to just 43c on the dollar (yields over 42%).

As investors and market participants become increasingly aware of the regulatory failures that allowed for manipulation of LIBOR, FOREX, municipal bond bidding and certain commodities markets, regulatory sources are increasingly expressing concern that they have paid too little attention to potential manipulations of an arguably larger, more systemically important and less regulated market – the CDS market as self-governed, through ‘regulatory license’, by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA).

• Japan inflation slows to 14 month low, output slips (Reuters)
• Russia says ruble crisis over as reserves dive, inflation climbs (Reuters)
• Ruble rebounds sharply from lows as exporters sell dollars (Reuters)
• Xbox, PlayStation Networks Attacked, Hackers Claim Credit (BBG)
• Sony’s ‘The Interview’ Packs Theaters Without Violence (BBG)
• Oil edges above $60 as Libyan output slumps (Reuters)
• Shoppers’ Late Rush Gives Hope to Retailers (WSJ)
• Japan says close to deal with South Korea and U.S. on North Korea defense (Reuters)
• NYPD Arrests Seven for Threats After Slayings of Officers (BBG)

• Russia says NATO turning Ukraine into 'frontline of confrontation' (Reuters)
• Oil Drillers Under Pressure to Scrap Rigs to Cope With Downturn (BBG)
• Demonstrators Defy NYC Mayor's Call to Suspend Police Protests (BBG)
• U.S. to send more private contractors to Iraq (Reuters)
• ISIS Shoots Down Jet From U.S.-Led Coalition, Syrian Monitors Say (NYT)
• Russians Race to Secure Mortgages Before Costs Spiral (BBG)
• Abe Brings in Former Soldier Nakatani as Defense Minister (BBG)
• At Coke, Newest Flavor Is Austerity (WSJ)
• Fear and retribution in Xi's corruption purge (Reuters)
• UBS Raises Flag on China’s $1 Trillion Overseas Debt Pile (BBG)

Every year, David Collum writes a detailed "Year in Review" synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year's is no exception. "I have not seen a year in which so many risks - some truly existential - piled up so quickly. Each risk has its own, often unknown, probability of morphing into a destructive force. It feels like we’re in the final throes of a geopolitical Game of Tetris as financial and political authorities race to place the pieces correctly. But the acceleration is palpable. The proximate trigger for pain and ultimately a collapse can be small, as anyone who’s ever stepped barefoot on a Lego knows..."

Do you want to know if the stock market is going to crash next year?  Just keep an eye on junk bonds.  Prior to the horrific collapse of stocks in 2008, high yield debt collapsed first.  And as you will see below, high yield debt is starting to crash again. 

"Back in the halcyon days of summer, it seemed nothing could go wrong; but now, ...the uncertainties presently being generated have the potential to undermine two crucial kinds of trust – that one must have in the merits of one’s own exposure and that equally critical faith in the reliability of one’s counterparties. If it does, the third great bull run of the 20-year age of Irrational Exuberance could well reach its culmination, after a rally of almost exactly the same magnitude as and of similar duration to the one which ushered it in, all those years ago."

After the worst week for stocks in years, and following a significantly oversold condition, it will hardly come as a surprise that the mean reversion algos (if only to the upside), as well as the markets themselves (derivative trading on the NYSE Euronext decided to break early this morning just to give some more comfort that excessive selling would not be tolerated)  are doing all they can to ramp equities around the globe, and futures in the US as high as possible on as little as possible volume. And sure enough, having traded with a modestly bullish bias overnight and rising back over 2000, the E-Mini has seen the now traditional low volume spike in the last few minutes, pushing it up over 15 points with the expectation being that the generic algo ramp in USDJPY ahead of the US open should allow futures to begin today's regular session solidly in the green, even if it is unclear if the modest rebound in the dollar and crude will sustain, or - like on every day in the past week - roll over quickly after the open. Also, we hope someone at Liberty 33 tells the 10Y that futures are soaring: at 2.13% the 10Y is pricing in nothing but bad economic news as far as the eye can see.

• JAPAN RULING LDP WINS 275-306 SEATS: NHK EXIT POLL
• JUNIOR COALITION PARTNER KOMEITO WINS 31-36 SEATS: NHK POLL
• JAPAN OPPOSITION DPJ WINS 61-87 SEATS: NHK EXIT POLL
• JAPAN INNOVATION PARTY WINS 30-48 SEATS: NHK EXIT POLL
• JAPAN COMMUNIST PARTY WINS 18-24 SEATS: NHK EXIT POLL
• JAPAN RULING COALITION SET TO WIN 2/3 MAJORITY, NHK EXIT POLL

"Anything that becomes a mania -- it ends badly," warns one bond manager, reflecting on the $550 billion of new bonds and loans issued by energy producers since 2010, "and this is a mania." As Bloomberg quite eloquently notes, the danger of stimulus-induced bubbles is starting to play out in the market for energy-company debt - as HY energy spreads near 1000bps - all thanks to the mal-investment boom sparked by artificially low rates manufactured by The Fed. "It's been super cheap," notes one credit analyst. That is over!! As oil & gas companies are “virtually shut out of the market" and will have to "rely on a combination of asset sales" and their credit lines. Welcome to the boom-induced bust...

If prices fall any further (and what’s going to stop them?), it would seem that most of the entire shale edifice must of necessity crumble to the ground. And that will cause an absolute earthquake in the financial world, because someone supplied the loans the whole thing leans on. An enormous amount of investors have been chasing high yield, including many institutional investors, and they’re about to get burned something bad. We might well be looking at the development of a story much bigger than just oil.

And the final punch in the gut on this bloodbathy Friday some from French Fitch which just downgraded France from AA+ to AA: "The weak outlook for the French economy impairs the prospects for fiscal consolidation and stabilising the public debt ratio. The French economy underperformed Fitch's and the government's expectations in 1H14 as it struggled to find any growth momentum, in common with a number of other eurozone countries. Underlying trends remained weak despite the economy growing more strongly than expected in 3Q, when inventories and public spending provided an uplift. Euro depreciation and lower oil prices will provide some boost to growth in 2015. Fitch's near-term GDP growth projections are unchanged from the October review of 0.4% in 2014 and 0.8% in 2015, down from 0.7% and 1.2% previously. Continued high unemployment at 10.5% is also weighing on economic and fiscal prospects."

Europe's banks are vulnerable in 2015 due to weak macroeconomic conditions, unfinished regulatory hurdles and the risk of bail-ins according to credit rating agencies  ...  Oh what a tangled web, we weave  ...

China's overnight destruction of $80 billion of eligible collateral from the great global carry trade has had destructive consequences on the massively crowded short JPY (long USDJPY) trade. Haviung already lost ground following the dismal downward revisions in GDP, USDJPY is down 350 pips from yesterday morning's highs (This is the biggest 2-day drop in USDJPY in 18 months.) and the Nikkei 225 is down over 700 points in the same period... Abe approval ratings are plunging-er.  Did the downward revision to Japanese GDP straw finally break the back of the Central Bank Omnipotence camel?