ratings

File this one for the bizarro files. After Barclays was caught lying to its "sophisticated" clients about how it handles their order following the lawsuit by NY AG Schneiderman, the bank, having suffered an epic 75% collapse of trading volume in its dark pool, has decided to fight back and earlier today filed a motion to dismiss the dark pool complaint against it. Its main argument, as reported by the WSJ, is that the attorney general's complaint "fails to identify any fraud, establishing no material misstatements, no identified victims and no actual harm." In other words, Barclays alleges the dark pool participants were smart enough to figure out Barclays was lying to them when it promised their order flow wouldn't be offered up to predatory algos.

• EU to weigh extensive sanctions on Russia (FT)
• U.S. lifts flight ban to Israel (Reuters)
• Russia says will cooperate with MH17 probe led by Netherlands (Reuters)
• Norway faces ‘concrete and credible’ terrorist threat (FT)
• Don’t Tell Anybody About This Story on HFT Power Jump Trading (BBG)
• But... but... PMI: Unilever Sales Growth Misses Estimates on Asian Slowdown (BBG)
• World’s Biggest Wealth Fund Reviews $8 Billion Russian Stake (BBG)
• Qualcomm latest US tech company to reverse in China (FT)
• Hamptons Home Sales Rise as Buyers Find More Inventory (BBG)

Those keeping track and hoping the second default would finally hit have to hold their breath again after yet another last minute bailout has now made a complete mockery of China's "deliberate" intentions to clear up the rot plaguing its bond market. As Reuters reports, Huatong avoided a "landmark bond default at the last minute on Wednesday, raising enough funds to pay off both principal and interest on a 400 million yuan ($64.51 million) bond." Who bailed it out? Why the same government which continues to say one thing and do something totally different.

It has been over six months since we first highlighted the growing deterioration in the quality of auto loans and mentioned the 's' word (subprime) as indicative that we learned nothing from the financial crisis. Since then, auto loans (and especially subprime in the last few months) have surged to record highs; and most concerning, recently has seen delinquencies and late payments spike. The reason we provide this background is that, thanks to The NY Times, this story is now hitting the mainstream media as subprime-quality car buyers (new and used) realize the burden they have placed on themselves thanks to exorbitantly high interest rates (and a rapidly depreciating 'asset'). As one car 'owner' exclaimed, "buying the car was the worst decision I have ever made."

While we have again and again explained why Abenomics is ultimately doomed as you simply cannot print your way to prosperity (a message The Fed appears to be discovering rapidly), when Goldman Sachs unleashes an Abenomics-bashing piece, one has to wonder just what options Abe has left as economic data starts to collapse (and approval ratings drop just as fast). Simply put, as we concluded before, "Monetary debasement does NOT result in an economic recovery, because no nation can force another to pay for its recovery... Eventually the monetary debasement raises all costs and this initial benefit to exporters vanishes. Then the country is left with a depleted capital base and a higher price level. What a great policy!"

It seems like it was only yesterday when the first official Chinese corporate default in history (there have been many other ones in the past but all were quickly masked by the government to avoid a panic), Chaori Solar, entered the history books. Now it's time for default number in the country's onshore bond market as Huatong Road & Bridge Group, a company whose businesses includ bridge and highway construction, real estate, coal, eco-friendly construction materials and agriculture-related projects, based in the northern province of Shanxi, said it may miss a 400 million yuan ($64.5 million) note payment due July 23, according to a statement to the Shanghai Clearing House yesterday.

Just as they promised (and acting unilaterally as Europe declined to go along with The White House), President Obama has unleashed a set of 'sectoral' sanctions to wreak havoc in Russia. The sanctions include the standard travel bans but adds rules that block several of Russia's largest firms from American debt markets. The plan - to restrict funding availability for Russian firms to under 90-days - is however, dead-on-arrival. As we explained here, Russian companies, facing $115 billion of debt due over the next 12 months, will have the funds even if bond markets shut as "the amount of cash on balance sheets of Russian companies, committed credit lines from banks and the operating cash flows they will get is sufficient for the companies to comfortably service their liabilities." This will do nothing but raise Putin's ire even more.

Back in the summer of 2011 during the debt ceiling debacle, S&P did the unthinkable: it dared to speak the truth when it downgraded the US from its pristine AAA rating, setting off a stock market selloff and paradoxically sending bonds to record low yields. This resulted in a vindictive Tim Geithner promptly warning the Chairman of McGraw-Hill the US would retaliate (which it did), the termination of then CEO Devan Sharma (and his replacement with the all too friendly COO of Citibank), and most importantly, a still ongoing legal fight in which the DOJ sued S&P (and only S&P, not Moody's, not Fitch) allegedly for rating improprieties during the first housing bubble, but even 5 year olds knew it was just to teach S&P a lesson. Today we learn just what the cost is for anyone who dares to downgrade the US. The answer: $1,000,000,000. That is the amount that S&P has decided it will agree to pay in a settlement with the DOJ to put all this "truthiness" unpleasantness behind it.

• BRICS set up bank to counter Western hold on global finances (Reuters)
• Fed's Yellen Hedges Her View on Rates (Hilsenrath)
• China GDP Grows 7.5% in Second Quarter (WSJ)
• Get More Acquainted With Your Knees as Boeing Reworks 737 (BBG)
• Israel Warns Gazans of New Attack After Hamas Rejects Truce (WSJ)
• Israel poised for Gaza incursions after truce collapses (Reuters)
• China Housing Sales Fall in First Half of 2014 (WSJ)
• IBM to offer iPads and iPhones for business users (Reuters)
• Fed's George says strengthening economy warrants quick rate rise (Reuters)

Remember when everyone ignored this story about Espirito Santo in May: "Portugal's Largest Bank "In Serious Financial Condition" Auditor Warns." Good times. Alas, one can only kick the can of Europe's banking sector insolvency so far before everything blows up in everyone''s face all over again and Draghi has to come out of his crypt and spook everyone that he will do "whatever it takes" to ignore reality and just pretend stuff is fixed which carries Europe over for a few more months before the whole charade has to be repeated.

"Bye, bye, Abe" Just when you thought Japanese macro data couldn't get any worse... it does. Plumbing new depths in the "you can't print your way to prosperity" plan, Japanese Private Sector Machine Orders collapsed 19.5% month-over-month - the largest monthly drop ever (as the dragged-forward pre-tax-hike demand left a hole the size of Fukushima behind it). With Abe's disapproval ratings soaring and inflation surging, hopes for more 'bad news is good news' QQE should be quickly dismissed.

FDIC: “the largest positive contribution to the year-over-year change in earnings came from reduced loan-loss provisions..."

Just when you thought things could not get any worse for Abe and his experimentation in monetary policy alchemy... it does. Between surging inflation and stagnant wage growth, real wages for the Japanese fell by their most since the collapse of Lehman. Even the break of a 23-month streak of base wage drops was dismissed by the government as "expected to be revised lower." As Goldman warns, downside economic risks remain high, the J-curve is 'delayed', and with tumbling cabinet approval ratings and soaring personal disapproval ratings, Abe has a major problem on his hands...

The president is increasingly finding that telling the Mr. Chairmanwoman to rig the market to all time highs does not translate to a comparable popularity rating. In fact, just the opposite. While Obama's slide in the polls is nothing new, the latest data from the Quinnipiac University Poll is about as bad as it gets for the president: in fact, perhaps the only thing more shocking than Obama "surpassing" George W. Bush as the worst president since World War II is the onset of revisionism, with some 45% saying the US would have been better with Romney as president, compared to just 38% who say Obama remains the better choice. Which incidentally confirms what we reported yesterday: while the Republican view of Obama has certainly never been lower, what is worse is that even the core democrat faithful are now giving up on the hope and change bringer, confirmed by the latest Gallup poll which saw democrat confidence in the economy tumbling to the lowest level for 2014.

"If past is indeed sometimes prologue, this simple chart might be hinting that a rally similar in arithmetical range and time-span – if not in percentage gain – to the Tech bubble itself is becoming dangerously overripe and that, if so, the most propitious time to effect an exit is not when the fat lady interrupts her warbling of the anthem to shriek, 'Fire!' at the audience instead."