ratings

Eerie Calm Across Markets One Day Before The Main Event: Asia, Europe, US Unchanged

There is an eerie quiet across markets, one day before the year's main risk event: with the UK referendum vote starting in less than 24 hours and results due out shortly after, it is as if even the algos have stopped frontrunning other algos, in a market so thin and illiquid even the smallest order can result in a gap, either higher or lower. As a result, European, Asian stocks and S&P futures are little changed ahead of Thursday, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index swinging between gains and losses more than five times so far today.

Regulator Alleges Sweden's Largest Bank Has $9.7 Billion Capital Shortfall

Sweden's largest bank is under pressure today after Svenska Dagbladet reported an internal document from Sweden's Financial Supervisory Authority indicates that Nordea bank had a capital shortfall of $9.7 billion at the end of last year. Newspaper Svenska Dagbladet published an article that alleges an analyst at Sweden's FSA had discovered that internal bank models used to assess risk of loss on its loan portfolio had understated risk by as much as half at the end of last year

Imagine...

Now imagine what might happen next...

"People Are Expecting A Brawl" - Trump/Clinton Debates Likely Most-Watched Ever

The most watched presidential debate thus far was the Reagan-Carter debate in 1980, which drew 81 million viewers, with no other debate coming close to that number since (for context, 114 million watched the 2015 Super Bowl - which really shouldn't surprise anyone). There is a growing feeling that a Trump-Clinton debate could top the 81 million mark.

Fitch Cuts Japan's Credit Outlook To Negative

Following Abe's decision to delay the April 2017 increase in the consumption tax, warnings about Japan's rating (recall that Japan's consolidated debt/GDP ratio is the highest in the world at 400%) were inevitable, and moments ago Fitch was the first to come out and while "affirming" Japan's AA rating, it was the first major agency to cut its outlook from Stable to Negative. Expect the other two big agencies to do the same, followed inevitably by downgrades.

And The Winner Of Euro 2016 According To Goldman Is...

Shortly before Brazil's crushing 7-1 defeat to Germany in 2014's World Cup, Goldman Sachs econometric model forecast the South American team as by far the strongest favorite to lift football's soccer's greatest trophy. So, with that in mind, Jan Hatzius and his hooligans unleash their predictions for the 2016 European Football Championship that just got under way. Using historical performance data for each team - most importantly the Elo rating system originally devised to rank chess players - they estimate a set of probabilities that a particular team will reach a particular round, up to and including the championship... concluding that France (the hosts) are the most likely to win. Bet accordingly.

How Clinton Helped Create Trump

"Putting another Clinton in the White House is only going to make that right-wing extremism greater... Trump says very scary things — deporting immigrants, massive militarism and ignoring the climate... Well, Hillary, unfortunately, has a track record for doing all of those things..."

Mario Draghi Is Now Buying Junk Bonds

A few days after the ECB unexpectedly announced its CSPP, or corporate bond buying program which based on its definition was limited to investment grade, non-financial debt, we explained "Why The ECB Will Be Forced To Buy Junk Bonds", saying that "the EU corporate sector’s penchant for bond buybacks may ultimately force Draghi further down the ratings ladder lest the ECB should end up entangled tender offers or else end up without enough debt to monetize." This was confirmed on the very first day of the ECB's bond purchases.

Futures Slide On Rising Dollar As Global Bond Yields Hit Fresh Record Lows

Please do not adjust your screens: that off-green color you are seeing, that is not a malfunction. Yes, for the first time in six days, global stocks are lower with the MSCI all-country world index dipping from a 6 month high dragged down by lower European and Japanese equity markets, as the USDJPY dropped to a fresh five-week low while Treasury yields continued to hit new record lows because, as Bloomberg explains, "traders assessed the outlook for the global economy."

Toyota Issues Bond At A 0.001% Coupon, Japan's Lowest Ever

Overnight a Toyota Motor unit sold yen bonds with the lowest coupon ever for a Japanese company. Toyota Finance Corp issued 20 billion yen ($186 million) of notes at a yield of 0.001%, according to a filing with the nation’s Finance Ministry. That’s the lowest coupon ever for a regular bond by a domestic company that isn’t backed by the government

It Takes A Village To Maintain A Dangerous Financial System

“The few who understand the system will either be so interested in its profits or be so dependent upon its favors that there will be no opposition from that class, while the great body of people, mentally incapable of comprehending the tremendous advantage that capital derives from the system, will bear its burdens without complaint, and perhaps without even suspecting that the system is inimical to their interests.”

Paris Becomes Massive Camp For Illegal Migrants

Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo has announced plans to build a "humanitarian camp" next to one of the busiest train stations in the city, so that thousands of illegal migrants bound for Britain can "live with dignity." Hidalgo, who has often sparred with French President François Hollande for his refusal to accept more migrants, says her plan to help illegal migrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East is a "duty of humanism." The National Front party has accused her of putting the concerns of migrants ahead of those of French citizens, as part of a cynical political ploy aimed at positioning herself to the left of the current president.

Three Days In Chicago: 64 Shot, 3 Dead - Why It Keeps On Happening

“Shooting in Chicago is like a cancer...It’s starting to spread out, and I just figured it was a matter of time.” The logic of one Chicago mother, who watches another mother weep over her dead son in their South Side neighborhood, perfectly sums up what they are living throuigh in Obama's recovery: She is glad her own son is in jail, because the alternative is unbearable... “He was bound to be shot this summer,” she says.

 

Futures Flat Ahead Of Strike-Impacted Jobs Report; Commodities Approach Bull Market

After yesterday's two key events, the ECB and OPEC meetings, ended up being major duds, the market is looking at the week's final and perhaps most important event of the week: the May payrolls report to generate some upward volatility and help stocks finally break out of the range they have been caught in for over a year.