Having yesterday expressed clearly that there was no desire to see the Yuan depreciate, The PBOC weakened the Yuan fix by 0.16% to one-month lows. This sent offshore Yuan notably lower back to post-RRR-Cut lows. For the 2nd day in a row, PBOC also decided to 'skip' open market operations (due to ample liquidity according to their statement).
It is likely just a coincidence that just a month after we reported that China's real debt/GDP was far greater than the 280% or so accepted conventionally, and was really up to 350% if not higher after the recent record loan issuance surge, moments ago Moody's officially downgraded its outlook of China's credit rating from stable to negative, citing three key risks: 1) The ongoing and prospective weakening of fiscal metrics, as reflected in rising government debt and in large and rising contingent liabilities on the government balance sheet; 2) A continuing fall in reserve buffers due to capital outflows, which highlight policy, currency and growth risks; 3) Uncertainty about the authorities' capacity to implement reforms - given the scale of reform challenges - to address imbalances in the economy.
Political pundits throughout the land are tripping over each other to compose the latest bland, uninsightful screed proclaiming the death of the Republican Party. While this undoubtably represents a major political turning point in U.S. history, many pundits have yet to appreciate thats the exact same thing is happening within the Democratic Party. It’s just not completely obvious yet.
With CDS markets implying around a 40% probability of default, Moody's has issued a warning over Valeant's deleveraging prospects (and ability to deliver sustainable growth) putting $31 billion of biotech debt on watch for downgrade. VRX bonds are down dramatically on the day.. not the forst day back at work Pearson was hoping for.
UBS' recent bearish assessment of the junk bond space led to a firestorm of protests from Wall Street asset managers for whom just the selloff in itself had become a catalyst to buy. So, to clear up any confusion, here is Matthew Mish responding to the barrage of angry bulls why the $1 trillion in distressed credit - a third of the entire universe - is not just an energy story, and responding to the five most important and recurring questions
We are living in a world in which a handful of high-tech companies, sometimes working hand-in-hand with governments, are not only monitoring much of our activity, but are also invisibly controlling more and more of what we think, feel, do and say. The technology that now surrounds us is not just a harmless toy; it has also made possible undetectable and untraceable manipulations of entire populations – manipulations that have no precedent in human history and that are currently well beyond the scope of existing regulations and laws.
"we have received requests to post approximately $220 million in collateral, of which we have posted approximately $92 million. We have posted the required collateral, primarily in the form of letters of credit and cash, or are otherwise complying with these contractual requests for collateral. We may be requested or required by other counterparties to post additional collateral in an aggregate amount of approximately $698 million."
It was just three days ago when we brought you what we called “the next shoe to drop:” CLOs. Just hours after our warning, Moody's followed in S&P's footsteps and delivered their first downgrade of post-crisis US CLOs. In the crosshairs: Silvermine Capital or, more specifically, Silvermore CLO and Silver Spring CLO where exposure to junk debt and the increasingly toxic O&G space is worryingly high.
Back in December we warned that Brazil faced a "disastrous downgrade debacle" that would eventually see the beleaguered South American nation cut to junk by all three major ratings agencies. Moments ago, that prediction was borne out.
Don't look now, but the chickens may be coming home to roost in subprime auto, a space we've been warning on for years. As lenders continue to lower their underwriting standards in order to feed Wall Street's securitization machine, more and more dodgy loans have found their way into ABS collateral pools. Now, the delinquencies are piling up.
The severe stress case "could force lenders to cut dividends, sell shares or take measures to preserve capital. The six biggest banks would see losses of C$5.56 billion ($4 billion) in a moderate scenario, while losses in a severe scenario would reach C$12.9 billion, or about 1.5 times the lenders’ combined quarterly profits."
With the UK's referendum on EU membership due in four months, it appears the market is gravely concerned about the possibility of Brexit. Despite the unleashing of Project Fear (both military and corporate fearmongery), cable (GBPUSD) has crashed 2.3% (the most in 7 years) to its lowest in 7 years, and both FX volatility and credit risk Brexit indicators are soaring to record highs.
- Futures sharply higher as oil extends gains (Reuters)
- Global Stocks Gain on Rising Commodities Prices, China (WSJ)
- Pound in freefall as Boris Johnson sparks Brexit fears (Telegraph)
- Pound Slides Most Since 2009 as Johnson Backs ‘Brexit’ Campaign (BBG)
- Oil Glut Will Persist Into 2017 as IEA Sees Prices Capped (BBG)
- Japanese Seeking a Place to Stash Cash Start Snapping Up Safes (WSJ)
Propped up by the Chinese central bank and by a generous Chinese finance ministry, with further hopes a backsliding European economy will mean even more easing by Draghi, the risk on mood is back: "People are willing to take risk again,” Karl Goody, a private wealth manager at Shaw and Partners Ltd. in Sydney told Bloomberg. “People are looking at the selloff this year and saying: enough is enough, there’s been enough pain now."
Many commentators have mentioned that Hillary Clinton left behind no major achievement as the U.S. Secretary of State; but, actually, she did. Unfortunately, all of her major achievements were bad, and some were catastrophic. Six countries were especially involved: Honduras, Haiti, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, and Ukraine. The harm she did to each country was not in the interest of the American people, and it was disastrous for the residents there. Hillary Clinton at every campaign debate says “I have a better track-record,” and that she’s “a progressive who gets things done.” Here’s what she has actually done when she was Secretary of State...