• Knave Dave
    05/23/2016 - 18:16
    This past Thursday marked the one-year anniversary of the US stock market’s death when stocks saw their last high. Market bulls have spent a year looking like the walking dead. They’ve...

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Peak Online Lending? SoFi Starts Hedge Fund Just To Buy Loans From Itself





Concerns about the health of the US economy and the true state of the labor market will likely mean that demand for marketplace-backed paper won’t exactly be what one would call “robust” going forward. Of course that’s a problem for lenders like SoFi, which pools its loans and sells them to free up space on the books for still more loans. But don’t worry, because SoFi - which originates billions in personal loans - has an idea...

 
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Oil Bust Spreads As 11 Texas Towns See Credit Downgraded





Moody’s Investors Service placed 11 West Texas governments and municipalities under review for a potential downgrade last week. The review will consider downgrading the credit ratings of 11 local governments, which include Odessa and Midland, Pecos County, and 7 hospital districts. The review would affect US$477 million in outstanding public debt.

 
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Frontrunning: March 10





  • Pressure Is on Mario Draghi to Show ECB Has Tools to Boost Low Inflation (WSJ)
  • Euro dips as ECB sets sights on deeper negative rates (Reuters)
  • Ohio's 'dirty little secret': blue-collar Democrats for Trump (Reuters)
  • Irish Economy Expanded 7.8% in 2015, Fastest Pace Since 2000 (BBG)
  • Too Many Boats for Too Little Cargo Leaves Shippers High and Dry (BBG)
 
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Bond Bears Bewildered - The Case For US Treasuries





While conventional wisdom suggests that US government bond yields have nowhere to go but up, we believe the economic fundamentals will continue to weigh on interest rates for the foreseeable future.

 
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Is This The End Of CNBC As We Know It?





Something "disturbing" has emerged for financial pundits whose only job is to appear on CNBC, Fox Business or Bloomberg TV and to present their recurring daily permabullish view while pocketing a commission in exchange for the (almost) free advertising: a proposal which would hold them accountable for their recommendations. The result: an industry-wide panic about a post "fiduciary rule" world in which talking heads on CNBC can't simply disappear for a few months after saying that "Bear Stearns is fine" days before the bank spontaneously combusts.

 
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"No Signs Of Recession" Says Agency That Always Fails To Predict Recession





The top economist for Moody’s (one of the largest rating agencies in the world) said yesterday, as he unleahed the latest jobs guess, that there are absolutely zero signs of recession. These sameguys were so drunk on their own Kool-Aid that in October 2007, Moody’s announced that “the economy is not going to slide away into recession.” Everyone assumed that the good times would last forever. This is what virtually assures negative interest rates in America.

 
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Ukraine Bans Criticism Of The Government





Soidifying its transition into a complete banana republic, on Tuesday Ukraine banned government officials from publicly criticizing the work of state institutions and their colleagues, after what Reuters reported was "damaging disclosures last month that highlighted slow progress in fighting corruption."

 
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PBOC Weakens Yuan To One-Month Lows





Having yesterday expressed clearly that there was no desire to see the Yuan depreciate, The PBOC weakened the Yuan fix by 0.16% to one-month lows. This sent offshore Yuan notably lower back to post-RRR-Cut lows. For the 2nd day in a row, PBOC also decided to 'skip' open market operations (due to ample liquidity according to their statement).

 
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Moody's Downgrades China's Credit Outlook From Stable To Negative - Full Text





It is likely just a coincidence that just a month after we reported that China's real debt/GDP was far greater than the 280% or so accepted conventionally, and was really up to 350% if not higher after the recent record loan issuance surge, moments ago Moody's officially downgraded its outlook of China's credit rating from stable to negative, citing three key risks: 1) The ongoing and prospective weakening of fiscal metrics, as reflected in rising government debt and in large and rising contingent liabilities on the government balance sheet; 2) A continuing fall in reserve buffers due to capital outflows, which highlight policy, currency and growth risks; 3) Uncertainty about the authorities' capacity to implement reforms - given the scale of reform challenges - to address imbalances in the economy.

 
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It's Not Just The GOP – The Democratic Party Is Also Imploding





Political pundits throughout the land are tripping over each other to compose the latest bland, uninsightful screed proclaiming the death of the Republican Party. While this undoubtably represents a major political turning point in U.S. history, many pundits have yet to appreciate thats the exact same thing is happening within the Democratic Party. It’s just not completely obvious yet.

 
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Valeant Bond Price Pukes As Moody's Threatens Downgrade Over Weak Performance





With CDS markets implying around a 40% probability of default, Moody's has issued a warning over Valeant's deleveraging prospects (and ability to deliver sustainable growth) putting $31 billion of biotech debt on watch for downgrade. VRX bonds are down dramatically on the day.. not the forst day back at work Pearson was hoping for.

 
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About That $1 Trillion In Distressed Credit: UBS Responds To Wall Street's Shock





UBS' recent bearish assessment of the junk bond space led to a firestorm of protests from Wall Street asset managers for whom just the selloff in itself had become a catalyst to buy. So, to clear up any confusion, here is Matthew Mish responding to the barrage of angry bulls why the $1 trillion in distressed credit - a third of the entire universe - is not just an energy story, and responding to the five most important and recurring questions

 
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The Hidden Persuaders - How The Internet Flips Election & Alters Our Thoughts





We are living in a world in which a handful of high-tech companies, sometimes working hand-in-hand with governments, are not only monitoring much of our activity, but are also invisibly controlling more and more of what we think, feel, do and say. The technology that now surrounds us is not just a harmless toy; it has also made possible undetectable and untraceable manipulations of entire populations – manipulations that have no precedent in human history and that are currently well beyond the scope of existing regulations and laws.

 
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Chesapeake's AIG Moment: Energy Giant Faces $1 Billion In Collateral Calls





"we have received requests to post approximately $220 million in collateral, of which we have posted approximately $92 million. We have posted the required collateral, primarily in the form of letters of credit and cash, or are otherwise complying with these contractual requests for collateral. We may be requested or required by other counterparties to post additional collateral in an aggregate amount of approximately $698 million."

 
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Canary, Meet Coal Mine: These Are The Tranches Where The CLO 2.0 Meltdown Begins





It was just three days ago when we brought you what we called “the next shoe to drop:” CLOs. Just hours after our warning, Moody's followed in S&P's footsteps and delivered their first downgrade of post-crisis US CLOs. In the crosshairs: Silvermine Capital or, more specifically, Silvermore CLO and Silver Spring CLO where exposure to junk debt and the increasingly toxic O&G space is worryingly high.

 
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