The fact that Moody's and Fitch are beginning to reevaluate student loan ABS is indicative of an underlying shift in the market. Between the proliferation of IBR and the Department of Education's recent move to open the door for debt forgiveness in the wake of the Corinthian collapse, financial markets are beginning to see the writing on the wall. Perhaps Bill Ackman said it best: "there's no way students are going to pay it all back."
"Of the subprime vehicle loans bundled into securities, 73 percent now exceed five years, up from 64 percent during the first three months of 2014. 'Because cars depreciate quickly, a borrower is typically upside down or underwater toward the end of a long loan term.' 'The risk is that you extend a loan that a borrower cannot afford over its term schedule. Inching out to 75 and 84 months, I don’t think that has been tested yet.'"
With real incomes collapsing, approval ratings at record lows, and PMIs back in contraction; is it any surprise that the last thing standing for Shinzo Abe to "show" the world his 'progress' is the stock market... the all-knowing arbiter of monetary and fiscal policy-maker success (and completely divergent indicator of real economic health). To wit, overnight saw Japan's Nikkei 225 surged to its highest since Nov 1996 (up almost 150% since Abenomics devaluation was unleashed). The last time we saw such a surge brings a chill air to the conversation as Japanese stocks pass the halfway-back mark to 1989's epic bubble peak, it is begining to look a lot like peaking once again.
The Abe Cabinet's approval rating plunged to 39%, matching a record low, as more than half of voters oppose the new US-sanctioned military/security legislation being debated in the Diet. The last time Shinzo Abe's approval ratings were this low, he called for a snap election and told Kuroda to unleash QQE2.0 which has only squeezed real wages to even record-er lows (24th month in a row of declines), destroyed-er elderly Japanese savings, and crushed-er the middle-class. As his popularity has waned, Abe has become more and more desperate to keep support and has, for the first time in 70- years, lower the minimum voting age from 21 to 18 (adding 2.4 million new voters who have not been demoralized yet by declining pension benefits and quality of life).
While China is rather proud of the fact that it hasn't yet implemented outright QE, Beijing has now put in place a bewildering hodge-podge of hastily construed easing measures that can't seem to get out of their own way.
Among the renewed Greek drama, many missed a key development in the past week, namely Jefferies Q2 earnings, and particularly the company's fixed income revenue: traditionally a harbinger of profitability for Wall Street's biggest source of profit (or at least biggest source of profit in the Old Normal). And while not as abysmal as the 56% collapse in the first quarter, in the three months ended May 31 what has traditionally been the bread and butter of Dick Handler's operation generated just $153 million in revenue. CEO Handler blamed that decline on a lack of trading in the market and fewer companies selling junk bonds.
The Greek case offers quite a relevant view into the world of 21st century monetary alchemy, because that is what it really amounts to. What is left, however, is the worst of all cases; no recovery, no lending and now just more financial imbalance piled onto the same negative pressures and imbalances that never really went away. What is amazing is how short the attention of “investors” may be, and how they allow themselves to think monetary complexity passes for proficiency or even expertise despite all and continued observation otherwise.
In the wake of the Chicago downgrade, state and local governments are moving away from Moody's as the ratings agency questions pension fund return assumptions.
The fox is guarding the henhouse at America's colleges and universities as accreditors slap a seal of approval on schools with subpar graduation rates, clearing the way for government aid to flow where it shoudln't and further imperiling the US taxpayer in the process.
Anyone that believes that this is “sustainable” in any way, shape or form is crazy. We have accumulated the greatest mountain of debt that the world has ever seen, and yet despite all of the warnings we just continue to race forward into financial oblivion. There is no possible way that this is going to end well.
Looking back at the Lehman Brothers collapse of 2008, it’s amazing how quickly it all happened. In hindsight there were a few early-warning signs, but the true scale of the disaster publicly unfolded only in the final moments before it became apparent that Lehman was doomed. Could this happen to Deutsche Bank?
The Question Is Not Is Deutsche Bank the Next Lehman, It's "Is Lehman the Face of Banking in the FutureSubmitted by Reggie Middleton on 06/12/2015 19:56 -0400
Is Deustche Bank the next Lehman is likely the wrong question to be asking. Is Lehman the template for European banking may be more to the point. Take it from the guy that called the Lehman debacle 5 months before the fact.
As unemployment rises to near 27%, a new poll shows more than half of Greeks support giving in to creditors "if they insist on it." Meanwhile, anti-austerity protests are back, with communist-affiliated union members demonstrating at the finance ministry in Athens.
- Pressing for Greek concessions, Merkel and Hollande keep Tsipras waiting (Reuters)
- Treasuries Extend Slump as Pimco Dumps Two-Thirds of Holdings (BBG)
- U.S. prepares plans for more troops, new base in Iraq: officials (Reuters)
- Texas policeman resigns after video shows him toppling teen (Reuters)
- Kuroda Says Hard to See Yen Dropping More, Spurring Surge (BBG)
- Tech Startups Woo Investors With Unconventional Financial Terms — but Do Numbers Add Up? (WSJ)
- Putin is a 'bully', U.S. needs to respond resolutely: Jeb Bush (Reuters)
A national poll from CNN/ORC Tuesday morning found Clinton with her highest unfavorable rating in 14 years: Just 46% of those surveyed viewed her favorably, compared with 50% who viewed her unfavorably. (The last time her negatives were this high was in March 2001, when 53% of those surveyed viewed her unfavorably.) On whether Clinton “is honest and trustworthy,” CNN found just 42% of people say she is; 57% say she is not.