• Marc To Market
    08/29/2015 - 10:18
    Dollar recovered from the exaggerated panic at the start of last week.  Outlook is still constructive.  Here is an overview of the technical condition of currencies, bonds, oil , and S&...

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Here's What Happens When Your City Is Cut To Junk





Last month, Chicago saw its debt cut to junk at Moody's, triggering billions in accelerated payment rights and jeopardizing efforts to improve the city's finances in the face of a budget gap that's set to triple over three years. Citi has more on the dreaded "downgrade feedback loop."

 
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Emergency Powers Give Barack Obama Authority Over Just About Everything During A Major National Crisis





Presidents have always exercised emergency powers, but now thanks to dozens of new laws, regulations, court decisions and executive orders, Barack Obama is the most powerful president in all of U.S. history. Of course the U.S. Constitution does not actually give the president any special powers during a time of national emergency, but over time presidents have decided that they should be able to exercise such powers and the courts have generally agreed with them.

 
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Guest Post: Cuba - Figuring Out Pieces Of The Puzzle





In spite of all of the 'apparently good' outcomes of Cuba’s experimentation with equal sharing of wealth; in recent years Cuba seems to be moving away from the planned economy model. Instead, it is moving to more of a “mixed economy,” with more entrepreneurship encouraged. While we don’t have explanations for all of the things that are going on, here are a few insights on what is happening...

 
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Global Youth Unemployment Hits 35 Million As Recent Grads Lean On Parents





"More than 35 million young people, aged 16-29 are neither employed nor in education or training," the OECD reports. Meanwhile, two-thirds of college graduates will depend on their parents for up to five years after graduation in the US.

 
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The Real Story Behind Deutsche Bank's Latest Book Cooking Settlement





On Tuesday, Deutsche Bank agreed to a $55 million SEC settlement tied to allegations it hid billions in losses by mismarking its crisis-era derivatives book. The bank has always contended its valuation methodologies were sound. Here is the real story...

 
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Junk-Rated Chicago Has A Billion Dollar Pension Problem





In downgrading the city, Moody’s said it expected “Chicago's credit challenges will continue, both in the near term and in the long term [as] unfunded liabilities of the Municipal, Laborer, Police, and Fire pension plans grow and exert increasing pressure on the city's operating budget.” That looks to have been an accurate assessment, because as Bloomberg reports, Chicago’s budget gap is set to triple by 2017.

 
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The Government's Message For Heavily Indebted Students: Don't Pay Us Back





"The U.S. Department of Education wants to remind you that you may qualify for a repayment plan that calculates your monthly payment based on your income. You will likely qualify for an income-driven repayment plan if your total federal student loan debt exceeds your annual income. Under an income-driven plan, your initial payment could be as low as $0 per month." -- US Department of Education

 
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You Know It's A Fiscal Crisis When... Republicans Raise Taxes





"Six years after the recession ended, many U.S. states are hard pressed to balance budgets because of a sluggish recovery and their own policy decisions and in fact, thirty-two states faced budget gaps in fiscal 2015 or 2016 or both." Bloomberg reports. Indeed, state and local governments are so broke that "even Republican governors loath to raise taxes have proposed higher levies."

 
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Portugal's "Left-Wing" Forces Threaten Troika Revolt





"Europe faces the risk of a second revolt by Left-wing forces in the South after Portugal’s Socialist Party vowed to defy austerity demands from the country’s creditors and block any further sackings of public officials", The Telegraph reports. In sum, the reason why concessions (any concessions) to the Greeks are a non-starter in Athens' negotiations with creditors is that the IMF, the European Commission, and most especially Germany, want to send a clear message to any other 'leftist radicals' who may be thinking about using the "one move and the idea of EMU indissolubility gets it" routine as a way to negotiate for breathing room on austerity pledges, will get exactly nowhere and will have a very unpleasant time on the way.

 
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4 Factors Signaling Volatility Will Return With A Vengeance





The uncertainty surrounding the inevitability, if not the exact timing, of multiple and possibly overlapping volatility drivers is itself a source of volatility. For the average person, these signs can be scary. Taking steps to avoid the circus as much as possible, such as extracting money from the markets, securing personal assets, and waiting out the swings, can be a source of emotional comfort and future financial stability.

 
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Make College Free By Taxing Stock Trades, Dem Presidential Candidate Says





"Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders wants to take from the rich in order to make public college tuition-free for everyone else. On Tuesday, the Vermont senator will hold a press conference in the nation's capital at which he will introduce a plan to use a so-called Robin Hood tax on stock transactions to fund tuition at four-year public colleges and universities," Bloomberg reports.

 
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Frontrunning: May 18





  • Tsipras Endgame Nears as Greek Bank Collateral Evaporates (BBG)
  • Shi'ite forces ordered to deploy after fall of Iraqi city (Reuters)
  • Ratings agency Fitch to downgrade many European banks (Reuters)
  • Bubble Blowing to Continue So Long as Yellen Isn’t Raising Rates (BBG)
  • Greece's Debt Battle Exposes Deeper Eurozone Flaws (WSJ)
  • Obama to set new limits on police use of military equipment (Reuters)
  • China April home prices fuel hopes of bottoming out, but long road to recovery (Reuters)
  • Hedge Funds Close Doors, Facing Low Returns and Investor Scrutiny (NYT)
  • ASIC's Greg Medcraft 'quite worried' about Sydney, Melbourne house prices (Fin Review)
 
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How China's Banks Hide Trillions In Credit Risk: Full Frontal





According to Fitch, nearly 40% of credit in China is outside bank loans, meaning that between forced roll-overs, the practice of carrying channel loans as "investments" and "receivables", inconsistent application of loan classification norms, and the dramatic increase in off balance sheet financing, the 'real' ratio of non-performing loans to total loans is likey far higher than the headline number.

 
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