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testosteronepit's picture

Global Corporate Debt is Coming Unglued





Default Rate Highest since 2009, US Distress Ratio Soars.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Visualizing Brazil's Economic Decline In One "Straight-Line" Chart





From EM darling to depression, it's been a rough ride for the "B" in BRICS. As we kick off 2016, analysts are growing increasingly concerned that Brazil's economic downturn could well be deeper and longer than anyone expected. The market's collapsing expectations are summarized in one stunning chart.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: January 4





  • China stocks tank, triggers circuit breaker (Reuters)
  • Stocks Slump Across Europe and Asia Following Shanghai's 7% Crash (BBG)
  • China Halts Stock Trading After 7% Rout Triggers Circuit Breaker (BBG)
  • Iran says Riyadh thrives on tension after relations cut (Reuters)
  • Saudis and Bahrain Face Off With Iran in Worst Clash Since 1980s (BBG)
  • Syrian rebel group backs Saudi move to cut ties with Iran (Reuters)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: December 31





  • Oil ends 2015 in downbeat mood; hangover to be long, painful (Reuters)
  • Recession, retrenchment, revolution? Impact of low crude prices on oil powers (Guardian)
  • Midwest Flooding Might Make the Oil Glut Worse (BBG)
  • From Oil Glut to Shortage? Some Say It Could Happen (WSJ)
  • Ten Years After Blowup, Amaranth Investors Waiting to Get Money Back (WSJ)
  • China Fires a Warning Shot at Yuan Speculators With Bank Bans (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Junk Isn't Very Noble: Asia's Largest Commodity Trader Responds To Moody's Downgrade





For now Noble refuses to throw in the towel, and overnight released the following statement on the Singapore Exchange where its massively beaten down stock trades.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Russian Economy Is Cracking, "Social Unrest" Coming In "A Few Months", Official Warns





As the ruble plunges to record lows against the dollar, we take a close look at the outlook for inflation and GDP growth in 2016 in the context of The Kremlin's budget, which assumes $50/bbl crude. We also ask whether the deficit - expected to balloon to 4.4% of GDP in the event oil hovers around $35/bbl - will grow as a result of a planned bailout for insolvent state lender VEB. 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Asia's Largest Commodity Trader Was Just Downgraded To Junk: Collateral Calls Next?





"Moody's downgrades Noble Group to Ba1; outlook negative.... "The downgrade of Noble's ratings reflects Moody's concerns over the company's liquidity," says Joe Morrison, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer. The Ba1 ratings also reflect low levels of profitability and consistent negative free cash flow from core operating activities, which exclude proceeds from asset sales."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

A Nervous George Soros Lashes Out At Donald Trump: He Wants You To Be Afraid





It appears The Establishment has decided to bring in the big guns to dislodge The GOP's nightmare scenario as Donald Trump goes from strength to strength in the polls. Writing in an op-ed for The Guardian, billionaire puppet-master George Soros urges Americans "to resist the siren song of the likes of Donald Trump," adding that "the terrorists and demagogues want us to be scared. We mustn’t give in."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Santa Rally Lifts Global Stocks For Third Day: Will Volumeless Levitation Push The S&P Green For 2015?





With just a handful of trading sessions left in the year, this is how the major global markets look as 2015 is about to close. As of this moment, and in keeping with the Christmas spirit, the biggest question is whether the S&P500 will close green or red for the year.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Great Disconnect Is Palpable





Taken together with the rather steep drop in US industrial production, the risks of a full-blown and perhaps severe recession have undoubtedly grown. Unlike what the FOMC is trying to project via the federal funds rate, a rate that isn’t being fully complemented, either, at this point, visible economic risk is not just rising it is exploding.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Despite Lifting Of Export Ban, Moody's "Bombshell" Sparks Panic In Energy Credit Markets





The Senate and House passed the spending bill this week, which the President signed into law on the same day. Embedded in the law is a provision to lift the 40-year old crude export ban. The lifting of the crude export ban is a historic milestone, but seemingly less relevant for US E&Ps, Midstream and Oilfield Services as compared to a year and a half ago when WTI-Brent spreads were close to $9.00/bbl vs. the current spread of $0.80/bbl. Nevertheless, there is still a negative long-term impact on refiners should spreads re-widen.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Market Shudders As Brazil Risks "Succumbing To Fiscal Populism" With New FinMin





Brazil has a new finance minister and the market is not happy. As BofAML puts it, "the focus turns now to the direction of the fiscal policy under the new FinMin, which should affect the recovery in confidence and thus growth. With mounting downside risks to growth that heavily weigh on the government’s revenues and the ongoing challenges in passing fiscal measures in Congress, tangible results over statements will now be needed to improve expectations over primary fiscal results ahead."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Moody's Downgrades Glencore To Lowest Investment Grade Rating As CDS Trade A Multi-Year Highs





Weak earnings performance in marketing operations below the current EBIT guidance of $2.4-$2.7 billion could place negative pressure on the Baa3 ratings in the absence of any mitigating measures. A weakening of the company's liquidity position, delays with the planned divestments in 2016 or a material reduction in its working capital funding capacities by the banks, as well as sustained high leverage with adjusted debt/EBITDA exceeding 4x, will also put negative pressure on the Baa3 ratings."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Brazil Stocks, Currency Tumble After Fitch Downgrade To Junk





The writing has been on the wall since the S&P "junking" in September, and now Fitch has jumped on the bandwagon, cutting Brazil to BB+, outlook negative. 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Fitch Warns Of "Historic Junk Milestone" As US Defaults Surge





Despite the rear-view-mirror-gazing optimists proclamations that default rates have been low (which matters not one jot when pricing the future expectations of default into corporate bond cashflows), Fitch just released its forecast for 2016 defaults and notes that more than $5.5 billion of December defaults has increased the trailing 12-month default rate to 3.3% from 3% at the end of November, marking the 13th consecutive month that defaulted volume exceeded $1.5 billion, closing in on the 14-month run seen in 2008-2009.

 
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