Did Goldman just hand out the blueprint to crush the next "Lehman" and unleash the next global bailout? Read on to find out.
Government poses a threat to liberty, that much is clear. But what may be surprising is that almost half of Americans clearly identified government as a clear and “immediate” threat, and are obviously outraged about what is going on. It is time that Americans embrace their anger at government, and focus their attention past the politicians to the real problem. Start with the bankers, follow the money, and see where it goes...
News That Matters
News That Matters
Non-bombasitc overview of the investment climate. No, the sky is not falling. This is not the end of days.
The Fed is truly cornered. If it fails to hike rates it will have no ammo for when the next crisis hits the US. But it if hikes rates now while the economy is so weak (more on this in a moment), it’s likely to kick off or deepen a recession.
Moody's Downgrades France, Blames "Political Constraints", Sees No Material Reduction In Debt BurdenSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/18/2015 15:45 -0500
Citing "continuing weakness in the medium-term growth outlook," Moody's has downgraded France:
*FRANCE CUT TO Aa2 FROM Aa1 BY MOODY'S, OUTLOOK TO STABLE
Apearing to blame The EU's "institutional and political constraints," Moody's expects French growth to be at most 1.5% and does not expect the debt burden to be materially reduced this decade.
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Who would have thought that decades of ZIRP, an aborted attempt to hike rates over a decade ago, and the annual monetization of well over 10% of sovereign debt would lead to a toxic debt spiral, regardless of how many "Abenomics" arrows one throws at it? Apparently Standard and Poors just had its a-ha subprime flashbulb moment and moments ago, a little over 4 years after it downgraded the US from its legendary AAA-rating which led to angry phone calls from Tim Geithner and a painful US government lawsuit, downgraded Japan from AA- to A+. The reason: rising doubt Abenomics is working.
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"The story that (Aylan's father) told is untrue. I don't know what made him lie, maybe fear. He was the one driving the boat right from the start. When they set off five minutes in he was looking left and right, worried, then he was speeding. Even his wife was screaming at him to slow down." Iraq-based Zainab Abbas, via her Sydney-based cousin Lara Tahseen, told Ten News she paid $10,000 for the voyage.
So far, it’s a different type of crisis – market tumult in the face of global QE, in the face of ultra-low interest rates and the perception of a concerted global central bank liquidity backstop. It’s the kind of crisis that’s so far been able to achieve a decent head of steam without causing much angst. And it’s difficult to interpret this bullishly. If Brazil goes into a tailspin, it will likely pull down Latin American neighbors, along with vulnerable Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey and others. And then a full-fledged “risk off” de-risking/de-leveraging would have far-reaching ramifications, perhaps even dislocation and a collapse of the currency peg in China. China does have a number of major trading partners in trouble. Hard for me to believe the sophisticated players aren’t planning on slashing risk.
Remember June - when everything was (apparently) awesome in BRIC-land and somehow a large group of duration-seeking greater-fools used Other-People's-Money to buy Petrobras bonds that mature in 100 years! Well those bonds are now trading less than 70c on the dollar (with yields pushing 10%) as Brazil's state-run oil company Petrobras, which slashed its five-year spending plan by 40% in June, admits that plan is already obsolete (two company sources told Reuters on Thursday). Petrobras will likely cut back further as growing debt costs, falling oil prices and a weak currency are the perfect storm for the company.
Glencore's "Doomsday" Plan Disappoints As CDS Resumes Rise; Question Emerges: "What Happens If Company Fails"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/11/2015 08:53 -0500
Some have started to ask: what happens if Glencore were to fail? Well, since Glencore is not just a miner, but probably the world's largest commodity trading desk, and is a key commodity counterparty for everyone, the answer is simple: Lehman... only this time in the commodity space.
Perhaps after intervening every single day in the past week (remember that FT piece saying the PBOC would no longer directly buy stocks... good times) in either the stock or the FX (both on and offshore) market, China needed a day off; perhaps even the algos got tired of constantly spoofing the E-mini and inciting momentum ignition, but for whatever reason the overnight session has been oddly uneventful, with no ES halts so far, few USDJPY surges (then again those come just before the US open), and even less violent CNY or CNH moves, leading to virtually unchanged markets in Japan (small red) and China (small green). And while the initial tone in Europe has been modestly "risk off", it is nothing in comparison to the massive gyrations that have become a stape in the past few weeks.