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All you need to read and more.

I have to confess, I am tired of writing "structured" articles, the ones where I have to limit my thoughts to 800 words.  So with this one I am taking a break.  This is an unstructured stream of thought, in no particular sequence.  

All you need to read.

Trading in Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s gold ETF in India surged almost 11 fold, leading an advance in gold securities, as investors bought gold to mark the auspicious Hindu festival of Akshaya Tritiya. Volumes in GS Gold BeEs, India’s biggest exchange-traded fund backed by gold, was 937,816 units on the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. at 4:54 p.m. in Mumbai, up from 85,376 units yesterday and more than the 101,914 average daily volumes in the last six months through yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This is significant volume. Each unit represents about 1 gram of physical gold and therefore 937,816 units is the equivalent of some 29,170 ounces of gold which at today’s prices is some $47 million of daily volume for just one gold ETF in India. The Goldman Sachs India gold ETF is just one of many new ETFs in India. Trading in Kotak Gold ETF jumped more than eightfold to 226,032 units. Gold demand in India, the world’s biggest importer, may climb as much as 25% to 15 metric tons on Akshaya this year, according to Rajesh Exports Ltd., the country’s biggest gold-jewelry exporter. Assets held by local gold funds reached a record 98.9 billion rupees ($1.87 billion) at the end of March, according to the Association of Mutual Funds in India. GS Gold BeEs had assets worth 29.6 billion rupees (some $563 million (USD)) as of March 31, data from the association showed. Trading in UTI-Gold Exchange Traded Fund climbed more than fivefold, while volumes in Reliance Gold ETF, the second-biggest fund, was up more than sixfold, data shows.

• Merkel Pushes Back Against Hollande Call to End Austerity Drive (Bloomberg)
• ECB's Draghi throws crisis ball back to governments (Reuters)
• Greek Bank Chief Warns of a Possible Euro Exit (WSJ)
• China’s Wen Says Economy Will Maintain Robust Expansion (Bloomberg)
• North Korea's nuclear test ready "soon" (Reuters)
• Hong Kong Peg Architect Says Convertible Yuan `Long Way Off’ (Bloomberg)
• Hollande seeks wider EU fiscal pact (FT)
• Gavyn Davies: Why UK GDP continues to lag the G7 (FT)
• U.S. Lost AAA on Danger of Liquidity Crisis, S&P’s Kraemer Says (Bloomberg)

Just in case one is wondering what is a greater crime in America: vaporizing $1.5 billion in client money or having the temerity to downgrade the US (twice), JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley, here is the SEC with the answer:

• SEC SUES EGAN-JONES, SEAN EGAN ON ALLEGED MISREPRESENTATIONS

Somewhere Jon Corzine is cackling like a mad cow.

In thy orfices, Banksta pimps!

Update: according to Belgian Le Soir, first exit polls show that Hollande is not surprisingly ahead, with 27% of the vote, 25.5% for Sarkozy, 16% for Marine Le Pen, and 13% for Jean-Luc Melenchon. More or less just as expected, and setting the stage for the runoff round which will be Hollande's to lose. French speakers demanding a minute by minute liveblog, can find a great one over at Le Figaro, and an English-one can be found at France24.com

As of 8 am CET, polls are open in the first round of the French presidential elections where voters are expected to trim the playing field of ten to just two candidates, incumbent Nicholas Sarkozy and his socialist challenger Francois Hollande, who will then face off in a May 6 runoff, where as of now Hollande is expected to have a comfortable lead and take over the presidency as the disgruntled French take their revenge for an economy that is contracting, an unemployment rate that keeps rising (see enclosed) despite promises to the contrary, and as their to "express a distaste for a president who has come to be seen as flashy following his highly publicized marriage to supermodel Carla Bruni early in his term, occasional rude outbursts in public and his chumminess with rich executives.....France is struggling with feeble economic growth, a gaping trade deficit, 10 percent unemployment and strained public finances that prompted ratings agency Standard & Poor's to cut the country's triple-A credit rating in January." In a major shift for the country, Hollande would become France's first left-wing president since Francois Mitterand, who beat incumbent Valery Giscard-d'Estaing in 1981. As Reuters reports, "Hollande, 57, promises less drastic spending cuts than Sarkozy and wants higher taxes on the wealthy to fund state-aided job creation, in particular a 75 percent upper tax rate on income above 1 million euros ($1.32 million)." The Buffett Rule may have failed in the US but La Loi de Buffett is alive and well in soon to be uber-socialist France. Yet it is not so much Hollande's domestic policies, as his international ones, especially vis-a-vis the European Fiscal Treaty, Germany, and most importantly the ECB, that roiled markets last week, causing French CDS to spike to the widest since January. In other news, goodbye Merkozy, hello Horkel as the power center shifts yet again to a new source of uncertainty and potential contagion.

Germany’s campaign for austerity in the EU is about to lose its biggest ally. How exactly this will play out is unclear, but it will not be conducive to the Euro lasting in its current form much longer: aside from the fact that the EU banking system is on the verge of collapse and Spain (a country too large to bailout) has now stepped to the center stage of the EU crisis, Germany is finding itself increasingly alone in its moves to rein in the ECB’s monetary profligacy.

Japanese Finance Minister said an IMF funding increase to USD 400bln is "coming into sight", and that he expects the BRIC nations to offer funds to the IMF at the appropriate time. The finance minister sees funding figures to be released as early as tomorrow. (Sources) The IMF looks set to reach or pass that target, with USD 320bln secured yesterday and many of the largest emerging economies still to contribute. ECB’s Knot and EU’s Rehn have said IMF commitments may have to be up to USD 500bln, and expects China to boost resources.  Brazil’s finance minister has said his country is still not ready to give numbers on their IMF contribution. The Indian finance minister has said he will take time to provide an answer to the funding question for the IMF. China also remains undecided on an increased IMF contribution.

• Current account surplus recycling goes global: BRICS demand bigger IMF role before giving it cash (Reuters)
• Obama oil margin plan could increase price swings (Reuters)
• Britons Abandoning Pensions Amid ‘Outdated’ Rules (Bloomberg)
• Hedge-Fund Assets Rise to Record Level (WSJ)
• Way to restore confidence: SEC considers case against Egan-Jones (FT)
• Qatari wealth fund adds 5% Tiffany stake  (FT)
• "Do we file?" Dewey Pitches Plan for Rescue (WSJ)
• French president slips further behind Socialist challenger Hollande (ANI)
• Nine U.S. Banks Said to be Examined on Overdraft Fees (Bloomberg)
• Capital Rotation: Investors fret on emerging markets and look to U.S. (Reuters)
• Verizon's Answer to iPhone: Windows (WSJ)

All you need to know.

Sometimes I ask myself why I chose to do this. I'm sitting here thinking about all the things I have to do and if I start writing, will I actually write anything that's going to make an inkling of difference. Let the politicians, Central Bank Governors and rating agencies fall on their own swords. The world will sort itself out without any feeble attempt you come up with under the circumstances to change it, undertheradar. You're getting yourself worked up for nothing, and that's going to cost you mistakes in the rest of your messed up life.

The Centre for European Policy Studies published their own findings this week and they estimate that the Real Estate accumulated overhang is actually almost $500 billion which equates to 59% of the IMF revised projections for Spain’s GDP. The EU and the ECB may not mandate that the Spanish banks have to mark-to-market in the normal fashion but a quick calculation indicates that the equity of the major Spanish banks is well into the red and past the blood line of any sustainable position. In my opinion, I would state, that the Spanish banks are in fact bankrupt and are only still alive given the financial shenanigans of how Europe allows the numbers to be calculated. I am well aware that many in Europe do not like to be confronted with the truth and that the stock market in the United States is so myopic that they wish to ignore the truth but the numbers are right in front of your nose if you care to look and reality has a funny way of catching up with the markets and reminding them one still equals one in the end. I am an adherent of the Greater Fool Theory and the trick is to let the other guy be the Greater Fool and not one of us. The “when” is unknowable but the “if” is behind us now and I suggest great caution.

The campaign of Barack Obama in 2008 was a perfect example of the propaganda pageant, complete with visceral slogans like “Hope” and “Change”.  After eight years of the clownish George Bush Jr., when our country spiraled down into a state of disturbed and vicious adolescence, people were looking for a renewal.  They were looking for a path away from the edge of the abyss.  Instead, they were given a better liar, with a brand new costume.  The American Dream has become harder to sustain since…to say the least. In 2012, what I see is like a lightning bolt in slow motion.  I can sense it branching out across the sky towards the ground and tearing through our surroundings, upending everything we know.  Both the President and Congress have some of the lowest approval ratings in history.  The question of whether anything can be accomplished through government has been answered for most people with a resounding “no”.  The citizenry is on the verge of total fury. I wish I could say that most have abandoned the fleeting hollow satisfaction of choosing the “lesser of two evils”, but that would not be accurate.