• EconMatters
    11/24/2015 - 14:25
    Focus on policies promoting economic growth, lower taxes, and spending tax receipts more efficiently and not on one`s sexual orientation in the bedroom.


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Frontrunning: November 19

  • Soothing Fed sounds send shares, emerging markets higher (Reuters)
  • Belgian Police Conduct Raids in Connection With Paris Attacks (WSJ)
  • The Paris Attacks Can’t Lead to a Closed Europe (BBG)
  • Alleged Mastermind of Paris Attacks Was ‘Emir of War’ (WSJ)
  • U.S. Eyes Russia-Iran Split in Bid to End Syria Conflict (WSJ)
  • Despite tensions, Asia-Pacific nations close ranks against terrorism (Reuters)
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US May Bring Criminal Charges Against JP Morgan, RBS Executives, Prosecutors Pretend

Is the US about to go Icelandic (or Chinese) on Wall Street executives for their role in packaging bad mortgages in the lead up to the financial crisis? Probably not, but at least we can pretend...

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Japan's Problems Will Not Be Solved By More QE, RBS Warns

"Japan’s experience suggests that QE has its limits, and could bring a range of side effects. These include years of tepid growth, the reduction in secondary trading liquidity, an increase in asset ownership by central banks (the BoJ now owns half of the national ETF market), potential formation of asset bubbles and social problems like inequality."

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Austerity And Anarchy: Tying Budget Cuts To Riots, Assassinations, And Attempted Revolutions

As Europe grapples with political turmoil in the periphery stemming partly from voters' collective frustration with years of austerity, RBS takes a look at the history of European expenditure cuts and how they correlate to anti-government demonstrations, riots, assassinations, general strikes, and attempted revolutions. 

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Frontrunning: October 30

  • World stocks on course for best month in four years (Reuters)
  • Global Stocks Up Amid Stimulus Hopes (WSJ)
  • BOJ Refrains From Adding Stimulus Even as Inflation, Growth Wane (BBG)
  • U.S. Avoids Debt Default as Congress Passes Fiscal Plan (BBG)
  • China naval chief says minor incident could spark war in South China Sea (Reuters)
  • Exclusive Club: No High-Frequency Traders Allowed at Luminex (WSJ)
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Futures Fade Overnight Ramp After BOJ Disappoints, Attention Returns To Hawkish Fed

Back in September we explained why, contrary to both conventional wisdom and the BOJ's endless protests to the contrary, neither the BOJ nor the ECB have any interest in boosting QE at this - or any other point - simply because with every incremental bond they buy, the time when the two central banks run out of monetizable debt comes closer. Since then the ECB has jawboned that it may boost QE (but it has not done so), and overnight as reported previously, the BOJ likewise did not expand QE despite many, including Goldman Sachs, expecting it would do just that.

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World's Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund Has Worst Quarter In 4 Years After Losing 21% On Chinese Stocks

Norway's $860 billion sovereign wealth fund (tasked with managing the country's vast oil wealth) just had its worst quarter in 4 years and its first back-to-back quarterly loss since 2009 after an array of EM bets went awry. Meanwhile, the government is set to start making withdraws from the fund as slumping crude prices have effectively reduced inflows to zero. 

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Here's What Happens When Central Banks Go Broke

Far from being some trivial problem that can be fixed by pressing "print", central banks operating from a negative equity position face the possibility of i) losing their independence as they have to be recapitalized at the behest of the government, ii) being forced into policy decisions (or, perhaps more appropriately "in"decisions) that they might not otherwise make, and iii) losing the ability to control the narrative, thus heightening market concerns about the loss of omnipotence.

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Is Mario Draghi About To Go Full-Kuroda? RBS Says ECB Could Buy Stocks

Now that Mario Draghi has telegraphed more easing from the ECB come December, the question is what exactly the bank will announce. Will Draghi cut the depo rate further into negative territory? How long into 2017 will PSPP be extended? Given the scarcity of purchasable paper, will the ECB expand the universe of eligible assets and if so, will Draghi go full-Kuroda knowing full well that you never, ever go full-Kuroda?

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Slumping Crude Will Send Norway To ZIRP As Economy Careens Toward Recession

With crude prices still stuck in the doldrums, economists at Handelsbanken say the Norges Bank will soon be forced to cut rates to zero in order to stave off a looming recession. What we want to know is this: if the housing bubble that the Norges Bank has helped to inflate bursts, how does the central bank plan to deal with the fallout (which will be amplified by the economic drag from low oil prices) when it has exhausted its counter-cyclical capacity by cutting rates to zero?  

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What Will Mario Draghi Announce Tomorrow: Here Is What Wall Street Thinks

Tomorrow morning Mario Draghi is widely expected to if not announce an extension, or expansion, of the ECB's QE program, than to at least jawbone sufficiently, and push the EURUSD lower from its recently anchored level in the 1.10-1.20 range. But what are the specifics of Draghi's announcement: will he merely expand the monetization limit per security, as he did in early September, will he increase the universe of eligibile securities, or will he simply extend the maturity of the non-open ended QE from September 2016 to some indefinite date? The following list, courtesy of Bloomberg, summarizes what the sellside universe believes Draghi will unveil in just under 12 hours.

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Have We Reached "Peak Fedspeak"?

Between a convoluted, self-referential reaction function and a cacophony of Fed speakers, the market simply can no longer process the FOMC's message and with that in mind, we bring you RBS’ Alberto Gallo who asks if perhaps we have reached “peak Fedspeak”.

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As A Shocking $100 Billion In Glencore Debt Emerges, The Next Lehman Has Arrived

And now the real shocker: there is over US$100bn in gross financial exposure to Glencore. From BofA: "We estimate the financial system's exposure to Glencore at over US$100bn, and believe a significant majority is unsecured. The group's strong reputation meant that the buildup of these exposures went largely without comment. However, the recent widening in GLEN debt spreads indicates the exposure is now coming into investor focus."

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How Developed Markets Become Banana Republics: "Debt Is A Much Easier Way To Gather Consensus"

"A smart politician can see that if somehow the consumption of middle-class householders keeps rising, if they can afford a new car every few years and the occasional exotic holiday, and best of all, a new house, they might pay less attention to their stagnant monthly paychecks. And one way to expand consumption, even while incomes stagnate, is to enhance access to credit."

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