Let me be blunt: this next crash will be far worse and more dramatic than any that has come before. Literally, the world has never seen anything like the situation we collectively find ourselves in today. The so-called Great Depression happened for purely monetary reasons. Before, during and after the Great Depression, abundant resources, spare capacity and willing workers existed in sufficient quantities to get things moving along smartly again once the financial system had been reset. This time there’s something different in the story line...
As bad as the month of January was for the global economy, the truth is that the rest of 2016 promises to be much worse.
"Unless the root causes of popular discontent are addressed (uneven growth, pockets of high unemployment and weak wage growth), the protest vote is unlikely to go away. In fact, it may well grow."
Bank of America has a simple question: Why, if we are truly seven years into a “recovery”, are populist parties and politicians dominating the political landscape?
This is the first meeting we can remember where serious and important market participants differed so strongly on the issue of what they ought to do. It’s not just hold or raise, cut is very much in the mix.
"Nobody is really sure where we go from here, and nobody is brave enough to make the call,” Peter Dixon, Commerzbank AG’s global equities economist in London told Bloomberg. “Corporate earnings season won’t provide much of a support - markets may find a floor if the Fed is extremely dovish tonight. At least investors will have time to think and reassess valuations."
Why the Black Hole of Deflation Is Swallowing the Entire World … Even After Central Banks Have Pumped Trillions Into the EconomySubmitted by George Washington on 01/24/2016 13:58 -0500
We Ask 3 Top Economists to Explain What the Heck Is Going On ...
- Stronger than expected decline in GDP Growth & weaker economic activity
- China in a major meltdown its government is not capable of stopping
- Major deflationary pressures forcing commodities down & credit spreads up
Is the economy as strong as some say it is?
Sometimes its difficult to see the forest for the trees........
"The market is manic depressive and it swings from seeing only the positives to seeing only the negatives," notes the world’s biggest distressed-debt investor, Howard Marks, but for now, as Bloomberg reports, the extremes (in risk pricing and sentiment) that usually signal opportunity (or capitulation) are not present. As Guggenheim's Scott Minerd warns, "wholesale panic" is what's needed before the market turns, and as RBS notes, "1,800 might come pretty quick."
The optimists have had things their own way in an almost unbroken line since March 2009. January 2016 so far would suggest that the pragmatists are now in charge.
“Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be forced to either acknowledge labor market tightening as reason to continue with the four-hike schedule for 2016 or risk her credibility, belittle job market stability and sound a warning about the risks of lower oil prices and cheap gasoline (sacrilege to regular Americans) by slowing the hiking pace after a single 0.25 percent increase last month. If she gets it wrong, things could get ugly fast."
- Crude sinks 4 percent as market braces for more Iranian oil (Reuters)
- Plunge in crude oil prices send stock futures sliding (Reuters)
- Oil Slides, Deepening Gloom in Stocks as Bond Buyers Celebrate (BBG)
- China Stocks Enter Bear Market, Erasing Gains From State Rescue (BBG)
- Friendly no more: Trump, Cruz erupt in bitter fight at Republican debate (Reuters)
- Dollar in Best Run Since July on Haven Bid Even as Fed Odds Fall (BBG)
Norway is in trouble. As we have detailed previously (here, here, here, and here), the world's largest sovereign wealth fund has begun liquidating assets (after its largest quarterly loss) as the nation faces recessionary fears (key data deterioration as oil stays lower for longer) with expectations building (despite denials by the central bank) that ZIRP (or even NIRP) is coming. Why? Simple - as the following real-time map shows - every one of Norway's oil fields are currently underwater!
Having been abandoned by equity analysts, perhaps investors could find some solace in the Treasury analyst community. Alas no: as Bloomberg notes this morning, citing independent Treasury strategist Marty Mitchell, "our concern is that things will only get worse (effects of commodity super-cycle, bankruptcies, debt defaults, hedge fund redemption/failures, global economic slowdown, equity weakness, global debt deleveraging, etc, etc) before they get better."