RBS

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Overnight Summary: Not An Algo Was Stirring Ahead Of The Jobs Report





Judging by complete lack of move in the futures since the last time we looked at them at close of US market (if not so much the EURUSD which moments ago touched its lowest level since October 10 below 1.2865), absolutely nothing has happened in the intervening 14 hours. Which wouldn't be too far from the truth. Europe reported its manufacturing PMIs, which while largely unchanged at the consolidated (Eurozone 45.4 on Exp. of 45.3, last 45.3) and core level (Germany 46.0 vs Exp. 45.7, Last 45.7; France 43.7 vs Exp. 43.5, last 43.5) showed some weakness for the one fulcrum country that everyone looks at: Spain, whose Mfg PMI dropped from 44.6 to 43.5 on Exp of 44.1. But at least the threat the ECB will buy its bonds is there. And Speaking of Spain (whose car registrations tumbled 21.7% in October), the first external condition appeared today, when EU competition commission Joaquin Almunia said seized Spanish banks must fire half their workforce, according to ABC. Finally back in the US, the Fed's Rosengren said the Fed will not stop monetizing until the jobless rate falls below 7.25%. Luckily, with the NFP report due in 90 minutes, and the labor participation rate set to tumble once more, we may just get that in today's key data highlight which everyone is waiting for.

 
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Overnight Sentiment: Cloudy, If Not Quite Frankenstormy





It is cloudy out there as Sandy enters the mid-Atlantic region, although for all the pre-apocalypse preparations in New York, the Frankenstorm may just be yet another dud now that its landfall is expected to come sufficiently south of NYC to make the latest round of Zone 1 evacuations about overblown as last year's Irene hysteria (of course it will be a gift from god for each and every S&P company as it will provide a perfect excuse for everyone to miss revenues and earnings in Q4). That said, Wall Street is effectively closed today for carbon-based lifeforms if not for electron ones, and a quick look at the futures bottom line, which will be open until 9:15 am Eastern, shows a lot of red, with ES down nearly 10 ticks (Shanghai down again as the same old realization seeps day after day - no major easing from the PBOC means Bernanke and company is on their own) as the Friday overnight summary is back on again: Johnny 5 must defend 1400 in ES and 1.2900 in EURUSD at all costs for just two more hours.

 
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Frontrunning: October 22





  • Dead Heat for Romney, Obama (WSJ)
  • The Cheerful Billionaire Who Thinks Obama's a Socialist (Businessweek)
  • "Get to work, Mr. Japanese Chairman": Japan Exports Tumble 10% as Maehara Presses BOJ to Ease (Bloomberg)
  • Chinese Investors Fear Chill in Canada (WSJ)
  • Rosneft Buys BP’s TNK-BP Stake for $26 Billion in Cash, Shares (Bloomberg)
  • Hong Kong Defends Its Currency Peg for First Time Since 2009 (Bloomberg)
  • Democrats threaten payroll tax cut consensus (FT)
  • Spain's Rajoy gets mixed message in regional votes (Reuters)
  • Merkel to warn UK on Europe budget veto (FT)
  • Netanyahu says doesn't know of any U.S.-Iran talks (Reuters)... neither does Iran, so near certainty
  • Der Kurrency Tsar: ECB’s Knot Backs Schaeuble Call for Stronger EU Budget Power (Bloomberg)
  • Fannie Mae Limiting Loans Helps JPMorgan Mortgage Profits (Bloomberg)
 
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Frontrunning: October 17





  • Obama takes offensive against Romney in debate rematch (Reuters)
  • Obama Says Romney Words Aren’t ‘True’ in Second Debate (Bloomberg)
  • Obama takes Romney head-on in debate (FT)
  • And another joins the club: Thailand Unexpectedly Cuts Rate as Global Outlook Worsens (Bloomberg)
  • PBOC Injects Less Cash (WSJ)
  • Japan to Hold Special Cabinet Meeting After Economy Downgraded (Bloomberg)
  • Greek Coalition Duo Reject Labour Moves Proposed by Troika (WSJ)
  • Opposition wanes to Spanish aid request (FT)
  • RBS to Exit U.K. Asset Protection Plan After $4 Billion Fees (Bloomberg)
  • Spain Retains Investment Grade Credit Rating From Moody’s (Bloomberg)
  • US diplomat asks Japan, ROK to resolve islands spat (China Daily)
  • Stagnation not due to austerity, says OBR (FT)
 
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Frontrunning: October 16





  • Hillary Clinton Accepts Blame for Benghazi (WSJ)
  • In Reversal, Cash Leaks Out of China (WSJ)
  • Spain Considers EU Credit Line (WSJ)
  • China criticizes new EU sanctions on Iran, calls for talks (Reuters)
  • Portugal sees third year of recession in 2013 budget (Reuters)
  • Greek PM says confident Athens will secure aid tranche (Reuters)
  • Fears over US mortgages dominance (FT)
  • Fed officials offer divergent views on inflation risks (Reuters)
  • China Credit Card Romney Assails Gives Way to Japan (Bloomberg)
  • Fed's Williams: Fed Actions Will Improve Growth (WSJ)
  • Rothschild Quits Bumi to Fight Bakries’ $1.2 Billion Offer (Bloomberg)
 
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Frontrunning: October 4





  • Romney dominates presidential debate (FT)
  • What Romney’s Debate Victory Means (Bloomberg)
  • Obama Lead Shrinks in Two Battlegrounds (WSJ)
  • "Everything will fall apart unless the Spanish conditions are extremely tough" German policy-maker (Telegraph)
  • Draghi Stares at Spain as Brinkmanship Keeps ECB Waiting (Bloomberg)
  • RBS facing loss after Spanish property firm collapse (Telegraph)
  • Burdened by Old Mortgages, Banks Are Slow to Lend Now (WSJ)
  • The Woman Who Took the Fall for JPMorgan Chase (NYT)
  • European Banks Told to Hold On to $258 Billion of Fresh Capital (Bloomberg)
  • Europe Weighs More Sanctions as Iran’s Currency Plummets (Bloomberg)
 
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Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: October 2





Equity markets continued to edge higher today as market participants grew hopeful that a full scale bailout of Spain will take place in the very near future. So much so that even though reports that Spain is to seek bailout this weekend was denied, the risk on sentiment held strong. As a result, SP/GE and IT/GE bond yield spreads tightened further, with IT 10s now yielding close to 5%. The renewed sense of security saw EUR/USD squeeze higher towards the psychologically important 1.3000 level, while GBP/USD also benefited from a weaker USD and is trading in minor positive territory in spite of another round of disappointing macro data from the UK. Going forward, the second half of the session sees the release of the latest ISM New York index, as well as the regular weekly API report. Both the BoE and the Fed are due to conduct another round of asset purchases at 1445BST and 1600BST respectively.

 
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Frontrunning: October 2





  • RBA Cuts Rate to 3.25% as Mining-Driven Growth Wanes (Reuters)
  • Republicans Not Buying Bernanke’s QE3 Defense (WSJ)
  • Spain ready for bailout, Germany signals "wait" (Reuters)
  • EU says prop trading and investment banking should be separated from deposit taking (Reuters)
  • Call for bank bonuses to be paid in debt (FT)
  • Spanish Banks Need More Capital Than Tests Find, Moody’s Says (Bloomberg) ... as we explained on Friday
  • "Fiscal cliff" to hit 90% of US families (FT)
  • The casualties of Chesapeake's "land grab" across America (Reuters)
  • U.K. Government Needs to Do More to Boost Weak Economy, BCC Says (Bloomberg)
  • World Bank Sees Long Crisis Effect (WSJ)
  • UBS Co-Worker Says He Used Adoboli’s Umbrella Account (Bloomberg)
  • And more easing: South Korea central bank switches tack to encourage growth (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: September 25





  • China carrier a show of force as Japan tension festers (Reuters)
  • Draghi Rally Lets Skeptics Dump Spain for Bunds (Bloomberg)
  • China’s Central Bank Injects Record Funds to Ease Cash Crunch (Bloomberg)
  • Obama warns Iran on nuclear bid, containment 'no option' (Reuters)
  • When Would Bernanke’s Successor Raise Rates? (WSJ) that's easy - never
  • Italy's Monti Downplays Sovereignty Risk (WSJ)
  • Portugal swaps pay cuts for tax rises (FT)
  • Madrid faces regional funding backlash (FT)
  • Berlin Seeks to Push Back New Euro-Crisis Aid Requests (WSJ)
  • Race Focuses on Foreign Policy (WSJ)
  • China Speeds Up Approvals of Foreigners’ Stock Investment (Bloomberg)
 
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Frontrunning: September 19





  • Deposit Flight From Europe Banks Eroding Common Currency (Bloomberg)
  • BOJ eases monetary policy as global slowdown bites (Reuters)
  • Stalled Rally Puts Pressure on Spain (WSJ)
  • Missed Chances Stoke Skepticism Over EU’s Crisis Fight (Bloomberg)
  • Germany's big worry: China, not Greece (Reuters)
  • Goldman names new CFO, heralding end of an era (Reuters)
  • Russia Demands U.S. Agency Halt Work (WSJ)
  • Fed’s Dudley Says Easing Vital to Spur Too-Slow Growth (Bloomberg)
  • Romney under fire from all sides (FT)
  • Poland cuts red tape to spur growth (FT)
  • IMF to Put Argentina on Path to Censure Over Inflation Data (Bloomberg)
 
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Bob Janjuah - "Central Banks Are Attempting The Grossest Misallocation And Mispricing Of Capital In The History Of Mankind"





"The bottom line is simple: The Fed and the ECB are directing and attempting to orchestrate the grossest misallocation and mispricing of capital in the history of mankind. Their problem is that their actions have enormous unintended and even (eventually) intended consequences which serve to negate their actions in the shorter run, and which could create even bigger problems than we currently face in the near future. Kicking the can is not a viable policy for us now. The private sector knows all this, consciously and/or sub-consciously, which is why I feel these current policy settings are doomed to fail. Having said all that, the one area which for some reason still holds onto hope that Draghi and Bernanke can still perform feats of "magic" is the financial market, which central bankers assume, rely on and are happy to encourage Pavlovian responses. The reality here though is that even financial markets are, collectively, either sensing or assigning a half-life to the "positives" of central bank debasement policies, which to me means that even markets are only suggesting a short-term benefit from the latest policy actions. This is not what Draghi and Bernanke are hoping for, but in order for them to see the half-life outcome averted they know that we need to see major political and structural real economy reforms which somehow make Western workers competitive and hopeful again. The track record of the last four to five years inspires very little confidence that we will see such great necessary reformist strides taken anytime soon."

 
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Frontrunning: September 14





  • Weeks before U.S. election, Mideast gives Obama perfect storm (Reuters)
  • Clashes intensify near US embassy in Cairo (Al Jazeera)
  • Puppet governments in trouble: Mursi Risks Rift With U.S. or Voters as Islamists Rally (Bloomberg)
  • Protests Put Egypt Relations on Edge (WSJ)
  • Fed insists politics had no role in decision (FT)
  • UBS "rogue trader" fraudulently gambled away $2.3 billion, court told (Reuters)
  • Obama Holds Lead in Three Key States (WSJ)
  • China's Xi recovering from bad back, could appear soon - sources (Reuters)
  •  Japan voices anger over Chinese incursion after vessels entered waters around disputed Senkaku islands  (FT)
  • Goldman Scales Back Junior-Analyst Program; No Contracts for College Hires (WSJ)
  • China commentary slams Romney's "foolish" China-bashing (Reuters)
  • Aging Baby Boomers Face Losing Care as Filipinos Go Home (Bloomberg)
 
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Frontrunning: August 22





  • Merkel's Dilemma: Risk Euro Zone or Her Government (WSJ)... as first suggest by ZH 2 months ago, with only one resolution: referendum
  • Russia warns West over Syria after Obama threats (Reuters)
  • Consider keeping Bernanke, Romney adviser Glenn Hubbard says (Reuters)... Glenn Hubbard is the star of the movie Inside Job
  • Spain Deficit Goals at Risk as Cuts Consensus Fades (Bloomberg)
  • Czech Austerity Revolt Threatens Cabinet as Slump Bites (Bloomberg)
  • Greek cuts to be deeper than trailed (FT)
  • Akin rebuffs Romney, Republican calls to quit Senate race (Reuters)
  • Obama Leads Romney in Poll Showing Disdain for Congress (Bloomberg)
  • Greece needs more time to reform, PM Samaras tells paper (Reuters)
  • UK banks face scandal over toxic insurance products (Reuters)
  • Iceland Shelves Monetary Tightening as Krona Seen Appreciating (Bloomberg)
  • India Considers $35 Billion Debt Revamp After Biggest Blackout (Bloomberg)
 
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Guest Post: The 'Beautiful' Deleveraging





Bridgewater's Ray Dalio is quoted in a recent Barron’s interview, describing the current phase of the U.S. deleveraging experience as “beautiful”. He goes on to explain the three options for reducing debt: austerity, restructuring and printing money. “A beautiful deleveraging balances the three options. In other words, there is a certain amount of austerity, there is a certain amount of debt restructuring, and there is a certain amount of printing of money. When done in the right mix, it isn’t dramatic. It doesn’t produce too much deflation or too much depression. There is slow growth, but it is positive slow growth. At the same time, ratios of debt-to-incomes go down. That’s a beautiful deleveraging.” That sounds pretty good and makes sense. Or does it?

 
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Complete Q2 Hedge Fund Holdings Summary





Q2 hedge fund reporting season has come and gone. Below is a summary of the key funds, and who held what at the end of June.

 
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