RBS

Frontrunning: November 4

  • Republicans expect gains, but many races close on election day (Reuters)
  • Ahead of tough election, White House blames dismay with Washington (Reuters)
  • On Election Day, a Tale of the Young and the Old (WSJ)
  • Because the recovery: Sprint to Cut 2,000 Jobs as Mobile Customers Keep Leaving (BBG)
  • Ukraine's rebel leader is sworn in, crisis deepens (Reuters)
  • Brilliant: Burkina Faso Army Promises Religious Leaders It Will Step Down (BBG)
  • More Unknowns Leave Central Banks Facing Greater Internal Strife (BBG)
  • Scapegoat found: IBM to Change Leadership at Global Services Unit (WSJ)
  • Explains why Europe just slashed its GDP forecast: Don’t Be Fooled by Warm Spell as Cold Air About to Return (BBG)

Lack Of Daily Central Bank Intervention Fails To Push Futures Solidly Higher, Yen Implosion Continues

While it is unclear whether it is due to the rare event that no central bank stepped in overnight with a massive liquidity injection or because the USDJPY tracking algo hasn't been activated (moments ago Abe's deathwish for the Japanese economy made some more progress with the USDJPY hitting new mult-year highs just shy of 113.6, on its way to 120 and a completely devastated Japanese economy), but European equities have traded in the red from the get-go, with investor sentiment cautious as a result of a disappointing the Chinese manufacturing report. More specifically, Chinese Manufacturing PMI printed a 5-month low (50.8 vs. Exp. 51.2 (Prev. 51.1)), with new orders down to 51.6 from 52.2, new export orders at 49.9 from 50.2 in September. Furthermore, this morning’s batch of Eurozone PMIs have failed to impress with both the Eurozone and German readings falling short of expectations (51.4 vs Exp. 51.8, Last 51.8), with France still residing in contractionary territory (48.5, vs Exp and Last 47.3).

Despite Surprise Rate-Hike, Russian Ruble Crashes Most In 6 Years

Yesterday's record-breaking surge in the Ruble appears, as we warned, to have been front-running today's rate-hike announcement... and despite its surprise size, it is disappointing the market. The 5%-plus swing higher in the Ruble yesterday has been notably retraced as the Russian currency plunges after the central bank hiked rates 150bps (expectations were broadly of a 50bps hike) but it appears the 'whisper' number was a 200bps hike and a shift in FX policy to more active intervention. The inituial rip rally instantly faded and despite low liquidity due to Russian holidays, USDRUB is back over 43 - which would be a new record low close if it holds.

Frontrunning: October 31

  • Futures rally after BOJ ramps up stimulus (Reuters), Japan's central bank shocks markets with more easing as inflation slows (Reuters)
  • Kuroda Jolts Markets With Assault on Deflation Mindset (BBG)
  • Japan Mega-Pension Shifts to Stocks (WSJ)
  • Russia Raises Interest Rates (WSJ)
  • Oil-Price Drop Has Saudi Officials Divided (WSJ)
  • Not anymore, the BOJ is here: Fed Exit Could Spark Slump in All Markets, ATP CEO Says (BBG)
  • Wal-Mart Weighs Matching Online Prices from Amazon (WSJ)
  • Euro-Area Inflation Picks Up From Five-Year Low on Stimulus (BBG)
  • Big Banks Brace for Penalties in Probes  (WSJ)
  • Ex-UBS Trader Defense Could Be Threat to U.S. Forex Cases (BBG)

Shocking Bank Of Japan Trick And QE Boosting Treat Sends Futures To Record High

Two days ago, when QE ended and knowing that the market is vastly overstimating the likelihood of a full-blown ECB public debt QE, we tweeted the following: "It's all up to the BOJ now." Little did we know how right we would be just 48 hours later. Because as previously reported, the reason why this morning futures are about to surpass record highs is because while the rest of the world was sleeping, the BOJ shocked the world with a decision to boost QE, announcing it would monetize JPY80 trillion in JGBs, up from the JPY60-70 trillion currently and expand the universe of eligible for monetization securities. A decision which will forever be known in FX folklore as the great Halloween Yen-long massacre.

Frontrunning: October 29

  • Fed set to end one crisis chapter even as global risks rise (Reuters)... you mean, for the third time?
  • Insider-Trading Probe Focuses on Medicare Agency (WSJ)
  • He's sorry: Rajoy Apologizes as New Wave of Graft Allegations Hits Spain (BBG)
  • China could 'punish' Hong Kong over protests, says ex-HK central bank chief (Reuters)
  • Dubai Insists the Boom is Not a Bubble This Time Around (BBG)
  • Bank-Data Sharing Accord Expands Push to Find Tax Cheats (BBG)
  • Deutsche Bank Sinks to Third-Quarter Loss on Legal Costs (BBG)
  • Kim Jong Un Executes 10 Officials for Watching Soap Operas (BBG)
  • French drugmaker Sanofi sacks CEO Viehbacher (Reuters)

ECB Stress Test Fails To Inspire Confidence Again As Euro Stocks Slide After Early Rally; Monte Paschi Crashes

It started off so well: the day after the ECB said that despite a gargantuan €879 billion in bad loans, of which €136 billion were previously undisclosed, only 25 European banks had failed its stress test and had to raised capital, 17 of which had already remedied their capital deficiency confirming that absolutely nothing would change, Europe started off with a bang as stocks across the Atlantic jumped, which in turn pushed US equity futures to fresh multi-week highs putting the early October market drubbing well into the rear view mirror. Then things turned sour. Whether as a result of the re-election of incumbent Brazilian president Dilma Russeff, which is expected to lead to a greater than 10% plunge in the Bovespa when it opens later, or the latest disappointment out of Germany, when the October IFO confidence declined again from 104.5 to 103.2, or because "failing" Italian bank Monte Paschi was not only repeatedly halted after crashing 20% but which saw yet another "transitory" short-selling ban by the Italian regulator, and the mood in Europe suddenly turned quite sour, which in turn dragged both the EURUSD and the USDJPY lower, and with it US equity futures which at last check were red.

Europe Demands Banks Hand Over Their Lunch Money Following Swiss Franc Libor Rigging

...And don't do it again! Having confirmed that RBS, UBS, JPMorgan,,and Credit Suisse operated a cartell to manipulate bid-ask spreads of Swiss Franc libor, the European Commission has unleashed unmerciless vengeance on these law-breaking institutions: JPMorgan fined EUR 72.2 Million, UBS fined EUR 12.7 Million, Credit Suisse fined EUR 9.17 Million, & RBS Nothing (for whistle-blowing).  The commission found that these four entities 'influenced' interest rate derivatives prices between March 2008 and July 2009 - probably the most volatile and price-sensitive period of American financial history.. and they get fined "an hour's pay?" Nothing ever changes...

A Day Of Global Economic Disappointments Is Just What The Stock Ramp Algo Ordered

It has been a night of relentless and pervasive disappointing economic data from just about every point on the globe: first the Chinese HSBC manufacturing data was well short of expectations (50.2 vs. Exp. 50.5), which was promptly spun as bullish and a reason for more stimulus by the PBOC even though the central bank has been constantly repeating it will not engage in western-style shotgun easing. Then Japanese wages, household spending and industrial production came in far below expectations - in fact at levels which suggest Japan is once again in a recession - which once again was spun as bullish, because the BOJ has no choice but to do more of the same failed policies that have made Abenomics the laughing stock of the world. Finally, moments ago Europe reported the lowest inflation data in 5 years, as well as core CPI sliding to just 0.7%, and which was, wait for it, immediately spun as bullish for risk as once again the local central bank would have "no choice but to ease." In other words, thank god for horrible news: because how else will the rich get even richer?

Frontrunning: September 29

  • This is why the locals are furious at the US: U.S-led raids hit grain silos in Syria, kill workers (Reuters) explaining this
  • Billions Fly Out the Door at Pimco: About $10 Billion Is Withdrawn After Departure of Gross (WSJ)
  • Pimco’s Ivascyn Takes on Gross With Unconstrained Fund (BBG)
  • Revealed - the Troika threats to bankrupt Ireland (The Independent)
  • Private Bad Debt Build-Up Casts Shadow on Greek Rebound (BBG)
  • Fed Questions Bank Maneuver to Reduce Hedge Funds' Dividend Taxes (WSJ)
  • Yuan-Euro Direct Trading Begins Tomorrow as China Promotes Usage (BBG)
  • Geneva Report warns record debt and slow growth point to crisis (FT)
  • Greenberg Team to Grill Bernanke, Geithner on AIG Bailout (BBG)... sadly only metaphorically

Scottish "No" Vote Pushes S&P To New Record High; Cable, Yen Roundtrip On Quad-Witching Alibaba Day

So much for any Scottish referendum vote "surprise": the people came, they voted, and they decided to stay in the 307-year-old union by a far wider margin, some 55% to 45%, than most polls had forecast, even as 3.6 million votes, a record 85% turnout, expressed their opinion. The gloating began shortly thereafter, first and foremost by David Cameron who said "There can be no disputes, no re-runs, we have heard the settled will of the Scottish people." Queen Elizabeth II, who is at her Scottish castle in Balmoral, is expected to make a rare comment on Friday. But while a No vote was where the smart betting money was ahead of the vote anyway, and is thus hardly a surprise, the most curious thing overnight was the complete roundtrip of cable, which was bought on the rumor and then sold off on the news, roundtripping by nearly 200 pips.

Scotland Votes As Andy Murray Provides Last Minute Boost For "Yes" Camp; Wall Street Roundup

The long awaited moment finally arrived after Scots began voting at 7am BST on whether to break away from the U.K. and end the 307-year union, even as latest opinion polls show the campaign against independence maintaining a narrow lead over those favoring independence.  And while the No's are said to have a slim lead into the vote, even if it is really the Undecideds whose vote will determine the final outcome, somewhat surprisingly, the Yes camp got an unexpected boost just hours before the polls opened when 27 year old tennis star, and Scot, Andy Murray declared his support for Scottish independence in an 11th hour intervention on Thursday morning, after years of keeping silent on the issue.

Frontrunning: September 16

  • Thank you market Chief Risk Officer Bernanke/Yellen: Calpers to Exit Hedge Funds, Divest $4 Billion Stake (BBG)
  • World stocks hit one-month low, caution ahead of Fed (Reuters)
  • U.S. Efforts to Build Coalition Against Islamic State in Iraq, Syria Are Hampered by Sectarian Divide (WSJ)
  • Time to throw away some more good money: Sears Borrows $400 Million From Lampert’s ESL Investments (BBG)
  • Wildfires rage in California drought, hundreds forced to flee (Reuters)
  • United Offers $100,000 Buyouts to Flight Attendants (BBG)
  • Biggest Banks Said to Overhaul FX Trading After Scandals (BBG)
  • You mean you have to pay? Administration threatens to cut off ObamaCare subsidies to 360,000 (The Hill)
  • RBS Said to Dismiss Most of Team Overseeing Central Europe Debt (BBG) they will be hired by the ECB

Frontrunning: September 15

  • Snow is coming: OECD Cuts Economic Growth Forecasts (WSJ)
  • World waits for white smoke from U.S. Fed (Reuters) - Understandable error: they meant "green"
  • Scots Breakaway at 45% Odds as Economists Warn of Capital Flight (BBG)
  • Ukraine President Poroshenko Faces Backlash Over EU Trade Deal Delay (WSJ)
  • German Anti-Euro Party Advances in Merkel Homeland Voting (BBG)
  • Clinton Hints at 2016 Run as Super-PAC Packs Iowa Steak Fry (BBG)
  • Air France, Lufthansa Hit by Strikes in Fight for Future (BBG)
  • U.S. sees Middle East help fighting IS, Britain cautious after beheading (Reuters)
  • Ex-Billionaire Charged by Brazil With Financial Crimes (BBG)